Twenty‐First Century Drought Projections in the CMIP6 Forcing Scenarios

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 8(6)

Published: April 19, 2020

There is strong evidence that climate change will increase drought risk and severity, but these conclusions depend on the regions, seasons, metrics being considered. We analyze changes in across hydrologic cycle (precipitation, soil moisture, runoff) projections from Phase Six of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The multimodel ensemble shows robust drying mean state many regions by end 21st century, even following more aggressive mitigation pathways (SSP1-2.6 SSP2-4.5). Regional hotspots with include western North America, Central Europe Mediterranean, Amazon, southern Africa, China, Southeast Asia, Australia. Compared to SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5, however, severity lower warming scenarios substantially reduced further precipitation declines are avoided. Along state, historically most extreme events also increases warming, 200–300% some regions. Soil moisture runoff CMIP6 robust, spatially extensive, severe than precipitation, indicating an important role for other temperature-sensitive processes, including evapotranspiration snow. Given similarity responses between CMIP5 CMIP6, we speculate both generations models subject similar uncertainties, vegetation model representations degree which consistent observations. These topics should be explored evaluate whether offer reasons have increased confidence projections.

Language: Английский

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Challenges for drought assessment in the Mediterranean region under future climate scenarios

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 210, P. 103348 - 103348

Published: Sept. 6, 2020

Language: Английский

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Multifaceted characteristics of dryland aridity changes in a warming world

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(4), P. 232 - 250

Published: March 9, 2021

Language: Английский

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On the essentials of drought in a changing climate

Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 368(6488), P. 256 - 260

Published: April 16, 2020

Droughts of the future are likely to be more frequent, severe, and longer lasting than they have been in recent decades, but drought risks will lower if greenhouse gas emissions cut aggressively. This review presents a synopsis tools required for understanding statistics, physics, dynamics its causes historical context. Although these applied most extensively United States, Europe, Amazon region, not as widely used other drought-prone regions throughout rest world, presenting opportunities research. Water resource managers, early career scientists, veteran researchers see improve our drought.

Language: Английский

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Advances in understanding large‐scale responses of the water cycle to climate change

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1472(1), P. 49 - 75

Published: April 4, 2020

Abstract Globally, thermodynamics explains an increase in atmospheric water vapor with warming of around 7%/°C near to the surface. In contrast, global precipitation and evaporation are constrained by Earth's energy balance at ∼2–3%/°C. However, this rate is suppressed rapid adjustments response greenhouse gases absorbing aerosols that directly alter budget. Rapid forcings, cooling effects from scattering aerosol, observational uncertainty can explain why observed responses currently difficult detect but expected emerge accelerate as increases aerosol forcing diminishes. Precipitation be smaller over land than ocean due limitations on moisture convergence, exacerbated feedbacks affected adjustments. Thermodynamic fluxes amplify wet dry events, driving intensification extremes. The deviate a simple thermodynamic in‐storm larger‐scale feedback processes, while changes large‐scale dynamics catchment characteristics further modulate frequency flooding increases. Changes circulation radiative evolving surface temperature patterns capable dominating cycle some regions. Moreover, direct impact human activities through abstraction, irrigation, use change already significant component regional importance demand grows population.

Language: Английский

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Robust Future Changes in Meteorological Drought in CMIP6 Projections Despite Uncertainty in Precipitation

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 47(11)

Published: May 10, 2020

Abstract Quantifying how climate change drives drought is a priority to inform policy and adaptation planning. We show that the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) simulations project coherent regional patterns in meteorological for two emissions scenarios 2100. find robust projected changes seasonal duration frequency (robust over >45% of global land area), despite lack agreement across models mean precipitation (24% area). Future are larger more consistent CMIP6 compared CMIP5. regionalized increases decreases driven by both variability. Conversely, intensity most regions but not simulated well historically models. The projections provides significant new opportunities water resource

Language: Английский

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A new global database of meteorological drought events from 1951 to 2016

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 22, P. 100593 - 100593

Published: Feb. 15, 2019

This study has three spatial scales: global (0.5°), macro-regional, and country scale. The database of drought events specific entries for each macro-region country. We constructed a meteorological from 1951 to 2016, now hosted by the Global Drought Observatory European Commission's Joint Research Centre. Events were detected at macro-regional scale based on separate analysis Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) Precipitation (SPI) different accumulation scales (from 3 72 months), using as input Climatology Centre (GPCC) Climatic Unit (CRU) Time Series datasets. includes approximately 4800 SPEI-3 4500 SPI-3. Each event is described its start end date, duration, intensity, severity, peak, average maximum area in drought, special score classify 52 mega-droughts. derived trends frequency separately SPI SPEI 12-month scale, which usually related hydrological droughts. Results show several hotspots last decades: Amazonia, southern South America, Mediterranean region, most Africa, north-eastern China and, lesser extent, central Asia Australia. Over North Europe, Asia, Australia, recent progressive temperature increase outbalanced precipitation causing more frequent severe

Language: Английский

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Future Global Meteorological Drought Hot Spots: A Study Based on CORDEX Data

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 33(9), P. 3635 - 3661

Published: Dec. 26, 2019

Abstract Two questions motivated this study: 1) Will meteorological droughts become more frequent and severe during the twenty-first century? 2) Given projected global temperature rise, to what extent does inclusion of (in addition precipitation) in drought indicators play a role future droughts? To answer, we analyzed changes frequency, severity, historically undocumented extreme over 1981–2100, using standardized precipitation index (SPI; including only) precipitation-evapotranspiration (SPEI; indirectly temperature), under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 RCP8.5). As input data, employed 103 high-resolution (0.44°) simulations from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX), based on combination 16 circulation models (GCMs) 20 regional (RCMs). This is first study projections RCMs such large ensemble RCMs. Based only, ~15% land likely experience 2071–2100 versus 1981–2010 for both scenarios. increase larger (~47% RCP4.5, ~49% RCP8.5) when are used. Both SPI SPEI project droughts, especially RCP8.5, southern South America, Mediterranean region, Africa, southeastern China, Japan, Australia. A decrease high latitudes Northern Hemisphere Southeast Asia. If included, characteristics North Amazonia, central Europe Asia, Horn India, Australia; if only considered, they found those areas.

Language: Английский

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Unraveling the influence of atmospheric evaporative demand on drought and its response to climate change

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 11(2)

Published: Dec. 19, 2019

Abstract This review examines the role of atmospheric evaporative demand (AED) in drought. AED is a complex concept and here we discuss possible definitions, subsequent metrics to measure estimate AED, different physical drivers that control it. The influence on meteorological, environmental/agricultural hydrological droughts discussed, stressing important spatial differences related climatological conditions. Likewise, drought has implications regarding how consider their attempts quantify severity. Throughout article, assess literature findings with respect to: (a) recent trends future projections; (b) several uncertainties data availability; (c) sensitivity current AED; (d) roles both radiative physiological effects increasing CO 2 concentrations may play as progress into future. All these issues preclude identifying simple effect Rather it calls for evaluations impacts under climate scenarios, considering feedbacks governing system. article categorized under: Paleoclimates Current Trends > Earth System Behavior

Language: Английский

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Compound heat and moisture extreme impacts on global crop yields under climate change

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(12), P. 872 - 889

Published: Dec. 6, 2022

Language: Английский

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