Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Aug. 13, 2020

Abstract The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify with global warming, which likely increases the intensity of extreme precipitation events and risk flooding. changes, however, often differ from theorized expectation in water‐holding capacity atmosphere warmer conditions, especially when water availability limited. Here, relationships changes flood intensities for end twenty-first century spatial seasonal are quantified. Results show an intensification over all climate regions as dry wet regions. Similarly, there increase availability. connection between becomes stronger become less extreme.

Language: Английский

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Evidence of anthropogenic impacts on global drought frequency, duration, and intensity

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: May 12, 2021

Abstract Most climate change detection and attribution studies have focused on mean or extreme temperature precipitation, neglecting to explore long-term changes in drought characteristics. Here we provide evidence that anthropogenic forcing has impacted interrelated meteorological Using SPI SPEI indices generated from an ensemble of 9 CMIP6 models (using 3 realizations per model), show the presence increased frequency, maximum duration, intensity experienced large parts Americas, Africa, Asia. individual greenhouse gas aerosol forcings, also highlight regional balances between two major forcings contributed drying patterns detected our results. Overall, a comprehensive characterization influence characteristics, providing important perspectives role driving events.

Language: Английский

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Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(3)

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives addressed impacts of in parts EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering wide range timescales, phenomena future pathways. Our assessment is based on revised analysis recent observations projections extensive overview scientific literature causes effects regional change. Greenhouse gas emissions EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those European Union, hence contributing significantly to Over past half‐century especially during decades, has warmed faster than other inhabited regions. At same time, changes hydrological cycle become evident. The observed temperature increase about 0.45°C per decade projected continue, although strong global greenhouse emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition mean conditions, call attention extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include strongly increasing severity duration heatwaves, droughts dust storms, well torrential rain that can trigger flash floods. review complemented by discussion atmospheric pollution land‐use region, including urbanization, desertification forest fires. Finally, identify sectors may be critically affected formulate adaptation research recommendations toward greater resilience

Language: Английский

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Increasing impact of warm droughts on northern ecosystem productivity over recent decades

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(9), P. 772 - 779

Published: Aug. 5, 2021

Language: Английский

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Projected Impacts of Climate Change on Drought Patterns Over East Africa

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 8(7)

Published: May 26, 2020

Abstract Investigation of the pressing impacts climate change on drought is vital for sustainable societal and ecosystem functioning. The magnitude how much will way droughts would affect society environment are inadequately addressed over East Africa. This study aimed at assessing future changes using an ensemble five Global Climate Models (GCMs) in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) To this end, characteristics were investigated under Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 2.6, 4.5, 8.5 near term (the 2020s; 2011–2040), midcentury (2050s; 2041–2070), end century (2080s; 2071–2,100). Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) Precipitation‐Evapotranspiration (SPEI) first compared, SPEI was used measuring as it showed stronger due to its inclusion temperature effects. Drought area Africa likely increase 21st by 16%, 36%, 54% RCP 8.5, respectively, with areas affected extreme increasing more rapidly than severe moderate droughts. Spatially, event, duration, frequency intensity Sudan, Tanzania, Somalia, South but generally decrease Kenya, Uganda, Ethiopian highlands. Results also confirm that follow “dry gets drier wet wetter” paradigm. findings provide important guidance improving identification causes, minimizing enhancing resilience

Language: Английский

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Drought propagation under global warming: Characteristics, approaches, processes, and controlling factors

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 838, P. 156021 - 156021

Published: May 16, 2022

Language: Английский

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Extreme Drought in the Brazilian Pantanal in 2019–2020: Characterization, Causes, and Impacts

Frontiers in Water, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: Feb. 23, 2021

The Pantanal region in South America is one of the world's largest wetlands. Since 2019, has suffered a prolonged drought that spelled disaster for region, and subsequent fires have engulfed hundreds thousands hectares. lack rainfall during summers 2019 2020 was caused by reduced transport warm humid summer air from Amazonia into Pantanal. Instead, predominance warmer drier masses subtropical latitudes contributed to scarcity at peak monsoon season. This led extreme conditions across region. had severe impacts on hydrology Hydrometric levels fell all along Paraguay River. In 2020, river reached extremely low values, some sections this river, transportation be restricted. Very affected mobility people shipping soybeans minerals Atlantic Ocean Hidrovia -Paraná - Paraguai (Paraná-Paraguay Waterway). study directed better understand hydroclimatic aspects current Brazilian their natural human systems. As consequence drought, spread biodiversity as well agribusiness cattle ranching sectors. While serious socioecological economic consequences, we do not intend investigate effect downstream low-level waters ecosystems or risk fire.

Language: Английский

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Assessment of the European Climate Projections as Simulated by the Large EURO‐CORDEX Regional and Global Climate Model Ensemble

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 126(4)

Published: Nov. 21, 2020

Abstract This paper analyzes the ensemble of regional climate model (RCM) projections for Europe completed within EURO‐CORDEX project. Projections are available two greenhouse gas concentration scenarios RCP2.6 (22 members) and RCP8.5 (55 at 0.11° resolution from 11 RCMs driven by eight global models (GCMs). The RCM results compared with driving CMIP5 but also a subset last generation CMIP6 projections. Maximum warming is projected all ensembles in Northern winter, along maximum precipitation increase there; summer, occurs Mediterranean Southern European regions associated decrease. shows largest signals, both temperature precipitation, inter‐model spread. There high consensus across on an extreme drought frequency region. Extreme indices show heat extremes decrease cold extremes, showing highest values finest spatial details. data set unprecedented size quality will provide basis impact assessment service activities

Language: Английский

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Global-scale drought risk assessment for agricultural systems

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 20(2), P. 695 - 712

Published: March 2, 2020

Abstract. Droughts continue to affect ecosystems, communities and entire economies. Agriculture bears much of the impact, in many countries it is most heavily affected sector. Over past decades, efforts have been made assess drought risk at different spatial scales. Here, we present for first time an integrated assessment both irrigated rainfed agricultural systems global scale. Composite hazard indicators were calculated separately using indices based on historical climate conditions (1980–2016). Exposure was analyzed non-irrigated crops. Vulnerability assessed through a socioecological-system (SES) perspective, socioecological susceptibility lack coping-capacity that weighted by experts from around world. The analysis shows displays heterogeneous pattern level, with higher southeastern Europe as well northern southern Africa. By providing information drivers patterns all dimensions hazard, exposure vulnerability, presented can support identification tailored measures reduce increase resilience systems.

Language: Английский

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A multi-model, multi-scenario, and multi-domain analysis of regional climate projections for the Mediterranean

Regional Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 19(8), P. 2621 - 2635

Published: Nov. 25, 2019

Abstract Observation and model-based studies have identified the Mediterranean region as one of most prominent climate change “hot-spots.” Parts this distinctive are included in several Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) domains such those for Europe, Africa, Mediterranean, Middle East/North Africa. In study, we compile analyze monthly temperature precipitation fields derived from regional model simulations performed over different CORDEX at a spatial resolution 50 km. This unique multi-model, multi-scenario, multi-domain “super-ensemble” is used to update projected changes region. The statistical robustness significance signal assessed. By considering information more than domains, our analysis addresses an additional type uncertainty that often neglected related positioning domain. suggest general warming by end century (between 1 5 °C with respect 1986–2005 reference period), which expected be strongest during summer (up 7 °C). A drying 10 40%) also inferred Mediterranean. However, less significant robust. ensemble corroborates fact already entering 1.5 era. It reach 2 well within two decades, unless strong greenhouse gas concentration reductions implemented. southern part impacted strongly since suggests substantial combined drying, particularly pathways RCP4.5 RCP8.5.

Language: Английский

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