Projected Changes in Temperature and Precipitation Over the United States, Central America, and the Caribbean in CMIP6 GCMs

Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5(1), P. 1 - 24

Published: Jan. 1, 2021

Abstract The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) dataset is used to examine projected changes in temperature and precipitation over the United States (U.S.), Central America Caribbean. are computed using an ensemble of 31 models for three future time slices (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2080–2099) relative reference period (1995–2014) under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs; SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). CMIP6 reproduces observed annual cycle distribution mean with biases between − 0.93 1.27 °C 37.90 58.45%, respectively, most region. However, modeled too large western Midwestern U.S. during winter spring North American monsoon region summer, while small southern America. Temperature increase entire domain all SSPs, by as much SSP5-8.5, more pronounced increases northern latitudes regions that receive snow present climate. Annual projections end twenty-first century have uncertainty, expected, exhibit a meridional dipole-like pattern, increasing 10–30% decreasing 10–40% Caribbean, especially Seasonally, eastern central subregions decrease summer autumn. Over America, seasons except analysis was repeated on subset 9 best performance period; however, no significant difference found, suggesting model bias not strongly influencing projections.

Language: Английский

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Projected Changes in Climate Extremes Using CMIP6 Simulations Over SREX Regions

Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5(3), P. 481 - 497

Published: Aug. 23, 2021

This paper presents projected changes in extreme temperature and precipitation events by using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) data for mid-century (2036–2065) end-century (2070–2099) periods with respect to the reference period (1985–2014). Four indices namely, Annual maximum of (TXx), Extreme heat wave days frequency (HWFI), consecutive 5-day (RX5day), Consecutive Dry Days (CDD) were investigated under four socioeconomic scenarios (SSP1-2.6; SSP2-4.5; SSP3-7.0; SSP5-8.5) over entire globe its 26 Special Report on Managing Risks Events Disasters Advance Climate Change Adaptation (SREX) regions. The projections show an increase intensity hot extremes land. hottest (as measured TXx) is more extratropical regions than tropics, while extremely HWFI) tropics. Drought CDD) Brazil, Mediterranean, South Africa, Australia. Meanwhile, Asian monsoon (i.e., Asia, East Southeast Asia) become prone flash flooding later twenty-first century as shown higher RX5day index projections. reveal large spatial variability within each SREX region. studied increases increasing greenhouse gas concentration (GHG) at end century. change pattern their minimum low-emission scenario SSP1-2.6. Our results indicate that increased GHG leads substantial intensities. Hence, limiting CO2 emissions could substantially limit risks associated

Language: Английский

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Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 models in simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 41(15), P. 6474 - 6496

Published: May 18, 2021

Abstract This study examines the improvement in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) models against predecessor CMIP5 simulating mean and extreme precipitation over East Africa region. The compares climatology of indices simulated by CMIP with CHIRPS data set using robust statistical techniques for 1981–2005. results display varying performance general circulation (GCMs) simulation annual seasonal domain. CMIP6 multi‐model ensemble (hereafter MME) shows improved local cycle a better representation rainfall within two peaks, especially MAM relative to their predecessor. Moreover, is well captured CMIP5. CMIP6‐MME performed than CMIP5‐MME lesser biases Simple Daily Intensity Index (SDII), consecutive dry days (CDD), very heavy >20 mm (R20mm) Africa. Remarkably, most are unable simulate extremely wet (R95p). Some (e.g., NorESM2‐MM CNRM‐CM6‐1) depict reproducing observed across all analyses. OND season some (i.e., R95p, PRCPTOT), except SDII, CDD, R20mm models. Consistent other studies, both CMIP5/6 as compared individual due cancellation systematic errors Generally, depicts However, new model generation still marred uncertainty, thereby depicting unsatisfactory calls further investigation into sources persistent methodology identifying features that can accurately patterns future usage.

Language: Английский

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Variable 21st Century Climate Change Response for Rivers in High Mountain Asia at Seasonal to Decadal Time Scales

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 57(5)

Published: May 1, 2021

Abstract The hydrological response to climate change in mountainous basins manifests itself at varying spatial and temporal scales, ranging from catchment large river basin scale sub‐daily decade century scale. To robustly assess the 21st impact for hydrology entire High Mountain Asia (HMA) a wide range of we use high resolution cryospheric‐hydrological model covering 15 upstream HMA quantify compound effects future changes precipitation temperature based on projections Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 ensemble. Our analysis reveals contrasting responses HMA's rivers, dictated by their regimes. At seasonal scale, earlier onset melting causes shift magnitude peak water availability, year. after an initial increase, glacier melt declines mid or end except Tarim basin, where it continues increase. Despite variability regimes across our results indicate relatively consistent terms total availability decadal time scales. Although increases headwaters, seasonality may diverge widely between need be addressed while adapting region food security, energy security as well biodiversity, livelihoods many depend HMA.

Language: Английский

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Projection of climate extremes in China, an incremental exercise from CMIP5 to CMIP6

Science Bulletin, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 66(24), P. 2528 - 2537

Published: July 21, 2021

This paper presents projections of climate extremes over China under global warming 1.5, 2, and 3 °C above pre-industrial (1861-1900), based on the latest Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) simulations. Results are compared with what produced by precedent project, CMIP5. evaluation for reference period (1985-2005) indicates that CMIP6 models outperform their predecessors in CMIP5, especially simulating precipitation extremes. Areal averages changes most indices found larger than The emblematic annual mean temperature, when averaged whole CMIP6, increases 1.49, 2.21, 3.53 (relative to 1985-2005) above-preindustrial levels, while counterpart CMIP5 is 1.20, 1.93 3.39 respectively. Similarly, total 5.3%, 8.6%, 16.3% 4.4%, 7.0% 12.8% spatial distribution extreme generally consistent both but significantly higher Northeast Northwest hottest day South coldest night temperature. In south bank Yangtze River, regions around 40°N, shows heavy precipitation. projected difference between mainly attributable physical upgrading largely independent from emission scenarios.

Language: Английский

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Global rainfall erosivity projections for 2050 and 2070

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 610, P. 127865 - 127865

Published: April 23, 2022

The erosive force of rainfall (rainfall erosivity) is a major driver soil, nutrient losses worldwide and an important input for soil erosion assessments models. Here, we present comprehensive set future erosivity projections at 30 arc-second (∼1 km2) spatial scale using 19 downscaled General Circulation Models (GCMs) simulating three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) the periods 2041–2060 2061–2080. were obtained based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR) approach relating depth to through series (bio)climatic covariates. Compared 2010 Global Rainfall baseline, estimate potential average increase in global between 26.2 28.8% 2050 27–34.3% 2070. Therefore, climate change consequential main projected + 30–66% rates by Our results successfully compared with 20 regional studies addressing projections. We release whole dataset composed 102 simulation scenarios, aim support further research activities erosion, conservation communities. expect these datasets address needs both Earth system modeling community policy makers. In addition, introduce make continental scales.

Language: Английский

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Future of solar energy potential in a changing climate across the world: A CMIP6 multi-model ensemble analysis

Renewable Energy, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 188, P. 819 - 829

Published: Feb. 23, 2022

Language: Английский

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Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2022

Abstract The risk of heatwave events and their persistence has intensified in recent past is expected to increase faster future. However, the anticipated changes socioeconomic exposure heatwaves are still unexplored. Here, we investigate projected heat stress associated across South Asia (SA) its subregions using newly released ensemble mean 23 global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections. We used two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5, three‐time periods, that is, near‐term, midterm, long‐term relative base period (1985–2005). found SA region potential for widespread Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 6.5°C, which can exceed theoretical limits human tolerance by mid 21st century. population's significantly increases during midterm periods ∼ person‐hours under SSP5‐8.5 scenario. GDP greatest same period's up dollar‐hours SSP2‐4.5. Moreover, foothills Himalayans northern parts Pakistan presently unaffected WBGT both scenarios. Among (hereafter R1, R2, R3, R4), frequency subdaily R2 R4 ∼70% ∼90% scenarios period. highest upsurge including southern southwestern India, followed R1 R3. Notably, effect more dominant than whereas contribute total change exposure.

Language: Английский

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Comparison of CMIP6 and CMIP5 model performance in simulating historical precipitation and temperature in Bangladesh: a preliminary study

Theoretical and Applied Climatology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 145(3-4), P. 1385 - 1406

Published: July 5, 2021

Language: Английский

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Future changes in precipitation and temperature over the Yangtze River Basin in China based on CMIP6 GCMs

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 264, P. 105828 - 105828

Published: Aug. 25, 2021

Language: Английский

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