Global Carbon Budget 2021

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 1917 - 2005

Published: April 26, 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize datasets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, land use data bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For first time, an approach shown reconcile our ELUC estimate one national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting collective countries' progress. year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative 2019, fossil at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 when carbonation included), was 0.9 0.7 yr−1, for emission 10.2 0.8 (37.4 2.9 GtCO2). Also, GATM 5.0 0.2 (2.4 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 3.0 0.4 SLAND 1 BIM −0.8 yr−1. atmospheric averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ppm. Preliminary 2021 suggest rebound +4.8 (4.2 %) globally. Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2020, but discrepancies up persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows (1) persistent large uncertainty emissions, (2) low agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, 2014, 2013). presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 2021).

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2022

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(11), P. 4811 - 4900

Published: Nov. 11, 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodologies quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, land use bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative 2020, fossil at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 when carbonation included), ELUC was 1.1 0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 10.9 0.8 (40.0 2.9 GtCO2). Also, GATM 5.2 0.2 (2.5 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 0.4 SLAND 3.5 0.9 BIM −0.6 (i.e. sources were too low or sinks high). atmospheric averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ppm. Preliminary 2022 suggest an increase +1.0 (0.1 1.9 %) globally reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2021, but discrepancies up 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extratropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications set. presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2023

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Language: Английский

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Understanding Brazil’s catastrophic fires: Causes, consequences and policy needed to prevent future tragedies

Perspectives in Ecology and Conservation, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 19(3), P. 233 - 255

Published: July 1, 2021

Brazil has experienced unprecedented wildfires in the last decade. Images of immense burnt areas or dead animals that failed to escape 2020 have shocked world. To prevent minimize further similar disasters we must understand factors led these catastrophic events. The causes and consequences entail complex interactions between biophysical sociocultural spheres, suitable management decisions require a sound scientific base. We present recent panorama increasing fire outbreaks Brazilian biomes, discuss contributed such fires, their impacts on environment overall for human well-being, based reviewing extensive specialist literature, authors' expert knowledge information provided by environmental managers, researchers politicians during workshop organized debate wildfire issue Brazil. Our up-to-date review is aimed at academic public, managers decision- policy-makers. First, evidence contrasting effects different ecosystems. Second, outline historic perceptions policies related use since its colonization date. Third, propose means advance prevention develop successful strategies. Finally, answer frequently asked questions clarify and/or demystify some fire-related issues not always properly addressed media.

Language: Английский

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The costs and benefits of primary prevention of zoonotic pandemics

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(5)

Published: Feb. 4, 2022

The lives lost and economic costs of viral zoonotic pandemics have steadily increased over the past century. Prominent policymakers promoted plans that argue best ways to address future pandemic catastrophes should entail, “detecting containing emerging threats.” In other words, we take actions only after humans get sick. We sharply disagree. Humans extensive contact with wildlife known harbor vast numbers viruses, many which not yet spilled into humans. compute annualized damages from zoonoses. explore three practical minimize impact pandemics: better surveillance pathogen spillover development global databases virus genomics serology, management trade, substantial reduction deforestation. find these primary prevention cost less than 1/20th value each year zoonoses cobenefits.

Language: Английский

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Global COVID-19 lockdown highlights humans as both threats and custodians of the environment

Biological Conservation, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 263, P. 109175 - 109175

Published: May 20, 2021

Language: Английский

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The COVID-19 pandemic is intricately linked to biodiversity loss and ecosystem health

The Lancet Planetary Health, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 5(11), P. e840 - e850

Published: Nov. 1, 2021

The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, caused by zoonotic SARS-CoV-2, has important links to biodiversity loss and ecosystem health. These range from anthropogenic activities driving disease emergence extend the pandemic affecting conservation, environmental policy, services, multiple conservation facets. Crucially, such effects can exacerbate initial drivers, resulting in feedback loops that are likely promote future outbreaks. We explore these relationships, highlighting known potential drivers (eg, land-use change, intensive livestock production, wildlife trade, climate change), discuss direct indirect of on stress responses must include actions aimed at safeguarding ecosystems, order avoid zoonoses prevent their wide-ranging human health, economies, society. Such would benefit adopting a One Health approach, enhancing cross-sector, transboundary communication, as well collaboration among actors, promoting planetary

Language: Английский

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Asymmetric impact of green bonds on energy efficiency: Fresh evidence from quantile estimation

Utilities Policy, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 80, P. 101474 - 101474

Published: Jan. 11, 2023

Language: Английский

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The dynamic relationships between carbon prices and policy uncertainties

Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 188, P. 122325 - 122325

Published: Jan. 11, 2023

Language: Английский

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Forest conservation in Indigenous territories and protected areas in the Brazilian Amazon

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 6(3), P. 295 - 305

Published: Jan. 2, 2023

Language: Английский

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