An SEIHR model with age group and social contact for analysis of Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(3), P. 728 - 743

Published: April 22, 2024

The structure of age groups and social contacts the total population influenced infection scales hospital-bed requirements, especially severe infections deaths during global prevalence COVID-19. Before end year 2022, Chinese government implemented national vaccination had built herd immunity cross country, announced Twenty Measures (November 11) Ten New (December 7) for further modifications dynamic zero-COVID polity on mainland. With nation-wide modified measures background, Fuzhou COVID-19 large wave 19, 2022–February 9, 2023) led by Omicron BA.5.2 variant was recorded prevailed three months in Fujian Province. A multi-age susceptible-exposed-infected-hospitalized-recovered (SEIHR) model with proposed this study. main object to evaluate impacts population. idea Least Squares method governed perform data fittings four against surveillance from Provincial Center Disease Control Prevention (Fujian CDC). next generation matrix used compute basic reproduction number specific group. tendencies effective were plotted using Epiestim R package SEIHR in-depth discussions. sensitivity analysis index partial rank correlation coefficients values (PRCC values) operated reveal differences parameters. epidemiological features such as number, extensively discussed Firstly, method, R0 estimated 1.57 parameter wave. Given group k, R0k (age k k), (an infected population) R^0k k) also estimated, which explorations revealed that relationship R0k>R0k>R^0k valid. Then, fluctuating Rt demonstrated two approaches (the model) wave, high-risk (G4 group) mainly contributed scale due high susceptibility risks diseases. Further, PRCC played vital roles, while numerical simulation showed varied changes groups. results study claimed out concerned local highest This verified partition population, groups, among important contributors scale. less adequate hospital beds profitable control spread To avoid emergence medical runs new future, policymakers suggested decline when limited.

Language: Английский

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COVID-19 transmission driven by age-group mathematical model in Shijiazhuang City of China

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 8(4), P. 1050 - 1062

Published: Aug. 18, 2023

A COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas of Shijiazhuang City was attributed to complex interactions among vaccination, host, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Herein, we investigated epidemiological characteristics all reported symptomatic cases by picking City, Hebei Province Northern China as research objective. In addition, established a with age-group mathematical model perform optimal fitting investigate dynamical profiles under three scenarios.All epidemic (January 2-February 3, 2021) were our study. The classified gender, age group location, distributions analyzed characteristics. Furthermore, data from Health Commission also using an two phases scenarios.Shijiazhuang caused SARS-CoV-2 wild strain recorded peak 84 out 868 on January 11, 2021, which implemented strong NPIs local government referred baseline situation this results showed that R0 ranged 4.47 7.72, Rt Gaocheng Distinct took 3.72 95% confidence interval 3.23 4.35 9, declining tendencies kept till February value reached below 1 19 remained low up 3 for District during epidemic. This indicated control 19. However, if kept, but remote isolation operated 11 not then scale 9482 who 60 years old over 31,017 cases. investigation revealed 132,648 (short G2) risk-based strategies (Scenario A), 58,048 G2 late quarantine B) 207,124 double risk C), corresponding transmission scenarios consistently controlled Jan 29, 2021. Compared situation, dates controlling delayed 10 days.Shijiazhuang first China. targeted adopted early 2021 effective halt due implementation strict village-wide closure. However found profile played critical rules successfully contain epidemic, should be considered public health policies mainland dynamic zero-COVID policy.

Language: Английский

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Assessing the dynamics and impact of COVID-19 vaccination on disease spread: A data-driven approach

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(2), P. 527 - 556

Published: March 12, 2024

The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly impacted global health, social, and economic situations since its emergence in December 2019. primary focus of this study is to propose a distinct vaccination policy assess impact on controlling transmission Malaysia using Bayesian data-driven approach, concentrating the year 2021. We employ compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Vaccinated (SEIRV) model, incorporating time-varying rate method for estimation through an Exploratory Data Analysis (EDA) approach. While no vaccine guarantees total immunity against disease, wanes over time, it critical include accurately estimate efficacy, as well constant decay or wane factor, better simulate dynamics vaccine-induced protection time. Based distribution effectiveness vaccines, we integrated calculated at 75% Malaysia, underscoring model's realism relevance specific context country. inference framework used assimilate various data sources account underlying uncertainties model parameters. fitted real-world from analyze disease spread trends evaluate our proposed policy. Our findings reveal that policy, which emphasizes accelerated during initial stages program, highly effective mitigating substantially reducing peak new infections. found vaccinating 57–66% population (as opposed 76% real data) with such here able reduce number infections ultimately costs associated contributes development robust informative representation vaccination, offering valuable insights policymakers potential benefits limitations different policies, particularly highlighting importance well-planned efficient rollout strategy. methodology specifically applied national successful application local regions within Selangor Johor, indicates adaptability broader application. This demonstrates assessment improvement across demographic epidemiological landscapes, implying usefulness similar datasets geographical regions.

Language: Английский

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Epidemiological feature analysis of SVEIR model with control strategy and variant evolution

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(3), P. 689 - 700

Published: March 30, 2024

The complex interactions were performed among non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations, and hosts for all epidemics in mainland China during the spread of COVID-19. Specially, small-scale epidemic city described by SVEIR model was less found current studies. with control established to analyze dynamical epidemiological features two Jinzhou City led Omicron variants before after Twenty Measures. In this study, total population (N) divided into five compartments: susceptible (S), vaccinated (V), exposed (E), infected (I), recovered (R). By surveillance data model, three methods (maximum likelihood method, exponential growth rate next generation matrix method) governed estimate basic reproduction number, results showed that an increasing tendency number from BA.5.2 BA.2.12.1. Meanwhile, effective investigated data, wave 1 reached peak on November 4 controlled 3 days later, 2 28 5 later. Moreover, impacts interventions (awareness delay, intensity) discussed extensively, variations infection scales variant EG.5 also discussed. Furthermore, investigations peaks dynamic zero-COVID policy operated control. public medical requirements Liaoning Province analyzed using without control, which provided a possible perspective evolution future.

Language: Английский

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The factors correlated with COVID-19 vaccination coverage in Chinese hypertensive patients managed by community general practitioner

Human Vaccines & Immunotherapeutics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 19(1)

Published: Jan. 2, 2023

This study aims to describe COVID-19 vaccination coverage and its influential factors in hypertensive patients who were administered by community general practitioners China. A cross-sectional survey was carried out using data from electronic health record systems. The subjects had been involved the management of Essential Public Health Service (EPHS) program Hangzhou City, As Aug 3, 2022, full booster rates 77.53% 60.97% randomly selected 96,498 subjects. There disparities across regions, age, gender distribution coverage. Obesity daily alcohol consumption promotion vaccination. Current smoking, non-daily physical exercise, irregular medication adherence, comorbidities risk for Coverage have decreased depending on number factors. ORs (95% CI) 1.78 (1.61 ~ 1.96) 1.74 (1.59 1.89) with ≥4 factors, compared those without In summary, progress among lagged behind that population during same period. Individuals lived urban areas, elderly, an comorbidities, multiple should be highlighted campaign.

Language: Английский

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Studying the impacts of variant evolution for a generalized age-group transmission model

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(7), P. e0306554 - e0306554

Published: July 5, 2024

The differences of SARS-CoV-2 variants brought the changes transmission characteristics and clinical manifestations during prevalence COVID-19. In order to explore evolution mechanisms impacts variant evolution, classic SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) compartment model was modified a generalized SVEIR (Susceptible-Vaccinated-Exposed-Infected-Recovered) with age-group varying in this study. By using least squares method, optimal fittings against surveillance data from Fujian Provincial Center for Disease Control Prevention were performed five epidemics Province. main epidemiological such as basic reproduction number, effective sensitivity analysis, cross-variant scenario investigations extensively investigated dynamic zero-COVID policy. study results showed that infectivities became fast wild strain Delta variant, further Omicron variant. Meanwhile, average incubation periods shortened, infection scales quickly enhanced. Further, risk estimations new without implements non-pharmaceutical interventions, based on dominant XBB.1.9.1 EG.5. suggested interventions necessary Chinese mainland controlling severe infections deaths, also regular monitors still workable aggressive emergency risks future.

Language: Английский

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Modelling the Potential Public Health Impact of Different COVID-19 Vaccination Strategies with an Adapted Vaccine in Singapore

Expert Review of Vaccines, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(1), P. 16 - 26

Published: Dec. 4, 2023

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causing COVID-19 has been a dynamically changing virus, requiring the development of adapted vaccines. This study estimated potential public health impact alternative vaccination strategies for in Singapore.

Language: Английский

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Dynamics of an SVEIR transmission model with protection awareness and two strains

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. 207 - 228

Published: Oct. 10, 2024

As of May 2024, the main strains COVID-19 caused hundreds millions infection cases and deaths worldwide. In this study, we consider epidemics with in Chinese mainland. We study complex interactions among hosts, non-pharmaceutical interventions, vaccinations for by a differential equation model called SVEIR. The disease transmission incorporates two protection awareness susceptible population. Results show that plays crucial role against population, vaccines are effective circulation earlier strains, but ineffective emerging strains. By using next generation matrix method, basic reproduction number SVEIR is firstly obtained. Our analysis Hurwitz criterion LaSalle's invariance principle shows free-equilibrium point locally globally asymptotically stable when threshold value below one. existences endemic equilibrium points also established, global asymptotic stabilities analyzed Lyapunov function method. Further, confirmed to satisfy competitive exclusion, which strain larger dominant. Numerically, surveillance data Omicron XBB split cubic spline interpolation fitting curves plotted least-squares method from MATLAB. results indicate dominates study. Moreover, sensitivity key parameters performed PRCC. numerical simulations imply combination control strategy positively impacts on scale than what separate does, time producing public creates less scale, further increment reduces scale. Therefore, policymakers local government suggested concern changes public.

Language: Английский

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Dynamic variations in and prediction of COVID-19 with omicron in the four first-tier cities of mainland China, Hong Kong, and Singapore

Frontiers in Public Health, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: Oct. 10, 2023

The COVID-19 pandemic, which began in late 2019, has resulted the devastating collapse of social economy and more than 10 million deaths worldwide. A recent study suggests that pattern cases will resemble a mini-wave rather seasonal surge. In general, severe impacts on cities rural areas, especially with high population density.In this study, background situation transmission is discussed, including number density. Moreover, widely used time series autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model applied to simulate forecast variations six cities. We comprehensively analyze dynamic four first-tier mainland China (BJ: Beijing, SH: Shanghai, GZ: Guangzhou SZ: Shenzhen), Hong Kong (HK), Singapore (SG) from 2020 2022.The major results show have their own temporal characteristics, are determined by different control prevention measures. (i.e., BJ, SH, GZ, SZ) similar one wave because identical "Dynamic Zero" strategy strict Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (NPIs). HK SG multiple waves primarily caused input cases. ARIMA ability provide an accurate pandemic trend for cities, could useful approach predicting short-term infectious diseases.Accurate forecasting significant value implementing reasonable measures.Our main conclusions measures should be dynamically adjusted organically pandemic. mathematical models proven again important scientific basis disease control.

Language: Английский

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Covid-19 Transmission Driven by Age-Dependent Mathematical Model In Shijiazhuang City of China

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Background: A COVID-19 outbreak in the rural areas of Shijiazhuang City was attributed to complex interactions among vaccination, host, and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). Herein, we investigated epidemiological characteristics all reported symptomatic cases by picking City, Hebei Province Northern China as research objective. In addition, established a with age-dependent mathematical model perform optimal fitting investigate dynamical profiles under three scenarios.Methods: All epidemic (January 2-February 3, 2021) were our study. The classified gender, age group location, distributions analyzed characteristics. Furthermore, data from Health Commission also using an two phases scenarios.Results: caused SARS-CoV-2 wild strain recorded peak 84 out 868 on January 11, 2021, which implemented strong NPIs local government referred baseline situation this results shew that R0 ranged 4.47 7.72, Rt Gaocheng Distinct took 3.72 95% confidence interval 3.23 4.35 9, declining tendencies kept till February value reached below 1 19 remained low up 3 for District during epidemic. This indicated control 19. However, if kept, but remote isolation operated 11 not then scale 9,482 who 60 years old over 31,017 cases. investigation revealed 132,648 G2 risk-based strategies (Scenario A), 58,048 late quarantine B) 207,124 double risk C). Conclusions: first China. targeted adopted early 2021 effective halt transmission due implementation strict village-wide closure. However found profile played critical rules successfully contain epidemic, should be considered public health policies mainland dynamic-zero policy.

Language: Английский

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