COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths predicted by SARS-CoV-2 levels in Boise, Idaho wastewater

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 907, P. 167742 - 167742

Published: Oct. 17, 2023

Language: Английский

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Campus node-based wastewater surveillance enables COVID-19 case localization and confirms lower SARS-CoV-2 burden relative to the surrounding community

Water Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 244, P. 120469 - 120469

Published: Aug. 8, 2023

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) has been established as a powerful tool that can guide health policy at multiple levels of government. However, this approach not well assessed more granular scales, including large work sites such University campuses. Between August 2021 and April 2022, we explored the occurrence SARS-CoV-2 RNA in wastewater using qPCR assays from complimentary sewer catchments residential buildings spanning Calgary's campus how compared to municipal treatment plant servicing campus. Real-time contact tracing data was used evaluate an association between burden clinically confirmed cases assess potential WBS for disease monitoring across worksites. Concentrations N1 N2 varied significantly six sampling - regardless several normalization strategies with certain consistently demonstrating values 1-2 orders higher than others. Relative clinical identified specific sewersheds, provided one-week leading indicator. Additionally, our comprehensive strategy enabled estimation total per capita, which lower surrounding community (p≤0.001). Allele-specific variants were representative large, no time did emerging first debut on This study demonstrates be efficiently applied locate hotspots activity very scale, predict complex

Language: Английский

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Post-recovery viral shedding shapes wastewater-based epidemiological inferences

Communications Medicine, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: May 22, 2025

The prolonged viral shedding from the gastrointestinal tract is well documented for numerous pathogens, including SARS-CoV-2. However, impact of on epidemiological inferences using wastewater data not yet fully understood. To gain a better understanding this phenomenon at population level, we extended wastewater-based modeling framework that integrates dynamics, load in wastewater, case report data, and an epidemic model. Our results indicate as outbreak progresses, recovered individuals gradually becomes predominant, surpassing infectious population. This leads to dynamic relationship between model-inferred reported daily incidence over course outbreak. Sensitivity analyses duration rate reveal accounting can considerably advance prediction transmission peak timing. Furthermore, extensive toward conclusion wave may overshadow signals newly infected cases carrying emerging variants, which delay rapid recognition variants based load. These findings highlight necessity integrating post-recovery enhance accuracy utility analysis.

Language: Английский

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Estimating the effective reproduction number of COVID-19 from population-wide wastewater data: An application in Kagawa, Japan

Infectious Disease Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 9(3), P. 645 - 656

Published: April 3, 2024

Although epidemiological surveillance of COVID-19 has been gradually downgraded globally, the transmission continues. It is critical to quantify dynamics using multiple datasets including wastewater virus concentration data. Herein, we propose a comprehensive method for estimating effective reproduction number The data, which were collected twice week, analyzed daily incidence data obtained from Takamatsu, Japan between January 2022 and September 2022. We estimated shedding load distribution (SLD) as function time since date infection, model employing delay distribution, assumed follow gamma multiplied by scaling factor. also examined models that accounted temporal smoothness viral measurement smoothed patterns was best fit (WAIC = 2795.8), yielded mean SLD 3.46 days (95% CrI: 3.01–3.95 days). Using this SLD, reconstructed incidence, enabled computation number. posterior draws parameters directly, or prior subsequent analyses, first used concentrations in wastewater, well infection counts infection. In approach, incorporated weekly reported case proxy reporting. Both approaches estimations epidemic curve twice-weekly Adding count reduced uncertainty conclude are still valuable source information inferring COVID-19, inferential performance enhanced when those combined with

Language: Английский

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Tracking the Time Lag between SARS-CoV-2 Wastewater Concentrations and Three COVID-19 Clinical Metrics: A 21-Month Case Study in the Tricounty Detroit Area, Michigan

Journal of Environmental Engineering, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 150(1)

Published: Oct. 20, 2023

Wastewater surveillance has been widely implemented to monitor COVID-19 incidences in communities worldwide. One notable application of wastewater is for providing early warnings disease outbreaks. Many studies have reported time lags between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) concentrations and confirmed clinical cases. To our best knowledge, only a few date explored SARS-CoV-2 other metrics. In this study, we investigated three metrics: cases, hospitalizations, intensive care unit (ICU) admissions, the Tricounty Detroit Area, Michigan, US. The metrics were dated September 1, 2020, October 31, 2022, collected from public data sources. N1 N2 gene May generated using two sampling concentration methods: virus adsorption-elution (VIRADEL) polyethylene glycol precipitation (PEG). recently published study. Time-lagged cross correlation was estimate Original normalized by flow parameters through nine approaches impact on lags. Vector autoregression models established analyze relationship results indicate that VIRADEL preceded all prior Omicron surge, instance, 32, 47, 51 days preceding ICU respectively (gene unit: gc/day). When translated health context, these become critical lead times officials prepare react. During there significant reductions lags, with measurements trailing total admissions. PEG lagged behind did not provide surges.

Language: Английский

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Predicting COVID-19 cases across a large university campus using complementary built environment and wastewater surveillance approaches

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 26, 2024

ABSTRACT Background Environmental surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 via wastewater has become an invaluable tool for population-level surveillance. Built environment sampling may provide complementary spatially-refined detection viral in congregate settings such as universities. Methods We conducted a prospective environmental study at the University Ottawa between September 2021 and April 2022. Floor surface samples were collected twice weekly from six university buildings. Samples analyzed presence using RT-qPCR. A Poisson regression was used to model campus-wide COVID-19 cases predicted fraction floor swabs positive RNA, building CO 2 levels, Wi-Fi usage, RNA levels regional wastewater. mixed-effects analysis building-level copies detected predictor. random intercepts logistic tested whether high-traffic areas more likely have present than low-traffic areas. Results Over 32-week period, we 554 Overall, 13% PCR-positive SARS-CoV-2, with positivity ranging 4.8% 32.7% among Both swab (Spearman r = 0.74, 95% CI: 0.53-0.87) signal 0.50, 0.18-0.73) positively correlated on-campus cases. In addition, built predictor linked individual buildings (IR log10(copies) + 1 17, 7-44). There no significant difference floors sampled versus (OR 1.3, 0.8-2.1). Conclusions Detection on found strongly associated incidence campus. These data suggest potential role institutional sampling, together surveillance, predicting both level scales.

Language: Английский

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Effective method to mitigate impact of rain or snowmelt sewer flushing events on wastewater-based surveillance measurements

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 956, P. 177351 - 177351

Published: Nov. 5, 2024

Wastewater-based surveillance (WBS) is increasingly used for monitoring disease targets in wastewaters around the world. This study, performed Ottawa, Canada, identifies a decrease SARS-CoV-2 wastewater measurements during snowmelt-induced sewer flushing events. Observations first revealed correlation between suppressed viral and periods of increased sewage flowrates, air temperatures above 0 °C winter months, solids mass flux increases. These correlations suggest that high flowrates from snowmelt events or intense precipitation lead to scouring previously settled sewers subsequent entrainment these into transported wastewaters. Collection WBS samples hence contains heterogeneous mixture solids, including resuspended with varying degrees decay. Therefore can present challenge accurately measuring target signals when using solids-based analytical methods. study demonstrates entrained retain PMMoV signal while significantly reduced due slower decay rate pepper mild mottle virus (PMMoV) compared within Hence current normalization methods are shown be ineffective correcting associated resuspension as does not account differential rates experiences by solids. Instead, this RNA correction factor an effective approach correct realign COVID-19 hospital admission communities. As such, highlights key physicochemical parameters necessary identify affect introduces novel analysis events, enhancing accuracy data public health decision-making.

Language: Английский

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SARS-CoV-2 Surveillance in Hospital Wastewater: CLEIA vs. RT-qPCR

Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(13), P. 2495 - 2495

Published: July 7, 2023

The utilization of wastewater as a community surveillance method grew during the COVID-19 epidemic. hospitalizations are closely connected with viral signals, and increases in signals can serve an early warning indication for rising hospital admissions. While reverse transcriptase quantitative polymerase chain reaction (RT-qPCR) is most often used approach detecting SARS-CoV-2 wastewater, chemiluminescence enzyme immunoassay (CLEIA) alternative automated method. In two assays, 92 grab samples from were investigated presence SARS-CoV-2, expected continuous monitoring surveillance. One was RT-qPCR nucleic acid test, another CLEIA assay antigen test. 24/92 (26.09%) samples, identified at least genes (ORF1ab, N, or S genes). CLEIA, on other hand, detected 39/92 (42.39%) samples. demonstrated low sensitivity specificity 54.2% (95% CI: 44.0–64.3%) 61.8% 51.8–71.7%), respectively, compared to RT-qPCR. κ coefficient indicated slight agreement between assay. Then, cannot replace molecular-based testing like RT PCR determining wastewater.

Language: Английский

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Wastewater surveillance using differentiable Gaussian processes

Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C (Applied Statistics), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 31, 2024

Abstract Wastewater-based surveillance tracks disease spread within communities by analyzing biological markers in wastewater. A key component of effective wastewater-based is the reliable inference underlying viral signals and their changes for accurate interpretation dissemination. This paper proposes a Bayesian hierarchical modelling framework to jointly estimate wastewater derivatives, while accounting common features limitations data. Our uses differentiable Gaussian processes model both trend deviations at individual stations. Specifically, modelled as an Integrated Wiener Process station-specific are smoothed assuming Matérn covariance function order 1.5. We demonstrate framework’s utility SARS-CoV-2 concentrations across Canada London, UK, well pepper mild mottle virus-normalized respiratory syncytial virus Central California. results show that this reliably estimates signal its derivative retrospective contexts, signal’s average rates change sensitive differentiability process.

Language: Английский

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