Projected Changes in Socioeconomic Exposure to Heatwaves in South Asia Under Changing Climate

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2022

Abstract The risk of heatwave events and their persistence has intensified in recent past is expected to increase faster future. However, the anticipated changes socioeconomic exposure heatwaves are still unexplored. Here, we investigate projected heat stress associated across South Asia (SA) its subregions using newly released ensemble mean 23 global climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), population, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) projections. We used two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), namely SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5, three‐time periods, that is, near‐term, midterm, long‐term relative base period (1985–2005). found SA region potential for widespread Wet bulb globe temperature (WBGT) 6.5°C, which can exceed theoretical limits human tolerance by mid 21st century. population's significantly increases during midterm periods ∼ person‐hours under SSP5‐8.5 scenario. GDP greatest same period's up dollar‐hours SSP2‐4.5. Moreover, foothills Himalayans northern parts Pakistan presently unaffected WBGT both scenarios. Among (hereafter R1, R2, R3, R4), frequency subdaily R2 R4 ∼70% ∼90% scenarios period. highest upsurge including southern southwestern India, followed R1 R3. Notably, effect more dominant than whereas contribute total change exposure.

Language: Английский

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Comparison of Multi-Year Reanalysis, Models, and Satellite Remote Sensing Products for Agricultural Drought Monitoring over South Asian Countries

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 13(16), P. 3294 - 3294

Published: Aug. 20, 2021

The substantial reliance of South Asia (SA) to rain-based agriculture makes the region susceptible food scarcity due droughts. Previously, most research on SA has emphasized meteorological aspects with little consideration agrarian drought impressions. insufficient amount in situ precipitation data across also hindered thorough investigation sector. In recent times, models, satellite remote sensing, and reanalysis products have increased data. Hence, soil moisture, precipitation, terrestrial water storage (TWS), vegetation condition index (VCI) been employed illustrate droughts from 1982 2019 using a standardized index/anomaly approach. Besides, relationships these towards crop production are evaluated annual national barley, maize, rice, wheat by computing yield anomaly (YAI). Our findings indicate that MERRA-2, CPC, FLDAS (soil moisture), GPCC, CHIRPS (precipitation) alike constant over entire four regions (northwest, southwest, northeast, southeast). On other hand, GLDAS ERA5 remain poor when compared moisture identified conditions one (northwest) three (northeast). Likewise, TWS such as MERRA-2 GRACE (2002–2014) followed patterns presented divergent inconsistent patterns. Furthermore, remained less responsive (northeast) (southeast) only. Based data, FLDAS, performed fairly well indicated stronger more significant associations (0.80 0.96) others. Thus, current outcomes imperative for gauging deficient region, they provide substitutes agricultural monitoring.

Language: Английский

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Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models

Water, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 13(17), P. 2358 - 2358

Published: Aug. 27, 2021

This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase (CMIP6) simulations are employed assess changes during two main rainfall seasons: March May (MAM) October December (OND). results show increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) decrease wet (CWD) towards end 21st century (2081–2100) relative baseline period (1995–2014) both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very (R95 p), heavy >20 mm (R20 mm), total wet-day (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant OND compared MAM season. spatial variation for incidences shows likely intensification Uganda most parts Kenya, while a reduction is observed Tanzania may pose serious threat sustainability societal infrastructure ecosystem wellbeing. from these analyses present opportunity understand emergence events capability model outputs CMIP6 estimating changes. More studies recommended examine underlying physical features modulating occurrence relevant policies.

Language: Английский

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Observed changes in seasonal drought characteristics and their possible potential drivers over Pakistan

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 42(3), P. 1576 - 1596

Published: July 31, 2021

Abstract Long‐term drought monitoring and its assessment are of great importance for meteorological disaster risk management. The recurrent spells heat waves droughts have severely affected the environmental conditions worldwide, including Pakistan. present work sought to investigate spatiotemporal changes in characteristics over Pakistan during Rabi Kharif cropping seasons. role large‐scale circulation interannual mode climate variability is further explored identify physical mechanisms associated with region. Monthly precipitation temperature data (1983–2019) from 53 stations were used study characteristics, using standardized evapotranspiration index (SPEI). nonparametric Mann–Kendall, Sen's Slope, Sequential Mann–Kendall tests applied on determine statistical significance magnitude historical trend. state‐of‐the‐art Bayesian Dynamic Linear model was analyse drivers droughts, revealed an increase severity, mostly arid semiarid regions both While played a significant defining dry hot seasons, rainfall influential western disturbances influenced analysis atmospheric patterns that wind speed, air temperature, relative humidity, geopotential height anomalies likely We found Niño4, sea surface multivariate El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO4.0) Index most factors seasonal across Overall, findings provide better understanding drought‐prone areas region, this information potential use mitigating managing risks.

Language: Английский

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Recent Observed Changes in Extreme High‐Temperature Events and Associated Meteorological Conditions over Africa

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 42(9), P. 4522 - 4537

Published: Dec. 4, 2021

Abstract More frequent and intensified high‐temperature extremes are acceptable indicators of global warming, which pose serious socio‐economic impacts. In the present research, Climate Prediction Center daily minimum maximum temperature used to characterize high temperatures into intensity hot days (TXx), nights (TNx), frequency indices based on 90th percentile (TX90p) (TN90p) as defined by Expert Team Change Detection Indices from 1981 2020 over Africa. The regression approach iterative reweighted least squares correlation analyses estimate trends in extreme events their relationship with various meteorological variables. Furthermore, Pruned exact linear time algorithm is assess if experienced an abrupt change. Results show that many parts Africa more current period (1998–2020) compared recent past (1981–1997), suggesting a clear shift climate. Thus, we climatological mean differences between parameters before after breakpoint atmospheric conditions events. As result, found observed increase geopotential height at 500 hPa reduced total cloud cover, well upward longwave radiation resulting upsurge African sub‐regions. study's findings provide useful information for future planning development early warning systems cope risks associated extremes.

Language: Английский

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Evaluating observed and future spatiotemporal changes in precipitation and temperature across China based on CMIP6‐GCMs

International Journal of Climatology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 42(15), P. 7703 - 7729

Published: April 22, 2022

Abstract The present study aimed to evaluate the performance of 46 global climate models (GCMs) from newly released Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) in historical simulation precipitation and temperature, select best performing GCMs for future projection across China three major river basins. This uses four shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs), namely SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5 relative base period (1961–2014). Initially, were evaluated employing an improved Taylor diagram method. Based on relatively better performance, 10 best‐performing (TBMs) selected out further evaluation. results show that temperature was well reproduced by CMIP6 over regions with a high correlation coefficient (CC). All TBMs produced good CC ranging 0.8 0.99 presenting distribution well. Meanwhile, EC‐Earth3 EC‐Earth3‐Veg simulated amounts as trends multimodel ensemble mean (MME) underestimates basins bias values −0.53, −0.21, −0.91, −0.68°C, respectively. In contrast, MEM overestimated amount 27.7, 32.4, 21.0, 104.6% During projections, increased are projected all China. increasing trend under scenarios 0.65, 0.86, 1.29, 0.76 mm·a −1 , whereas, is 0.008, 0.028, 0.050, 0.065°C·a Comparatively, greater radiation force, higher increases observed. extent target region its calls deep assessment attribution possible implementation robust methods can accurately simulate observed patterns practice.

Language: Английский

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Spatiotemporal characteristics of meteorological drought variability and trends (1981–2020) over South Asia and the associated large-scale circulation patterns

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(7-8), P. 2261 - 2284

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Language: Английский

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Projected changes in meteorological drought over East Africa inferred from bias-adjusted CMIP6 models

Natural Hazards, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 113(2), P. 1151 - 1176

Published: April 9, 2022

Language: Английский

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Projected Changes in Increased Drought Risks Over South Asia Under a Warmer Climate

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2022

Abstract Every year, millions of people are at risk due to droughts in South Asia (SA). The likely impacts projected increase with global warming. This study uses the new ensemble mean 23 climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6), population and gross domestic product (GDP) projections quantify future changes increasing drought risks associated socioeconomic exposure across SA its subregions under 1.5°C 2°C We used two shared pathways (SSPs), SSP2‐4.5 SSP5‐8.5. most realization copula functions model joint distribution severity duration. Simultaneously, bivariate return period calculated a warming climate. frequency 50‐year historical (under framework) might double 80% land area Conversely, 12% landmasses may suffer extreme severe episode is expected (40%–75%) (60%–90%) relative recent largest R2 R4, then R1. Additionally, 75% (65%) could increased warmer climate, whereas additional 0.5°C will lead an unbearable regional situation. Limiting compared can significantly reduce influence SA. These findings help disaster‐risk managers adopt climate‐smart management strategies.

Language: Английский

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Analysis of temperature variability utilising Mann–Kendall and Sen's slope estimator tests in the Accra and Kumasi Metropolises in Ghana

ENVIRONMENTAL SYSTEMS RESEARCH, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Nov. 12, 2022

Abstract Temperature variability may have direct and indirect impacts on the environments of Accra Kumasi Metropolises in Ghana. This study analysed temperature trends both cities using in-situ measurements from one meteorological station 1986 to 2015. The indices were computed RClimdex package Expert Team Climate Change Detection Monitoring Indices (ETCCDMI). time series was pre-whitened before Mann–Kendall trend Sen’s slope estimator analysis applied. Initial revealed minimal variation cities. results an increase warm days a general rise minimum compared maximum temperatures. Mann Kendall significant annual seasonal (dry wet seasons) These might lead increased rate heat-stressed diseases overall urban warming temperature, provided comprehensive insights into Kumasi. highlight essence evaluating light concerns. It is recommended that green blue spaces should be incorporated land use plans as these policy directions can aid regulate

Language: Английский

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