Global Carbon Budget 2022

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(11), P. 4811 - 4900

Published: Nov. 11, 2022

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodologies quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, land use bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2021, EFOS increased by 5.1 % relative 2020, fossil at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.9 when carbonation included), ELUC was 1.1 0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 10.9 0.8 (40.0 2.9 GtCO2). Also, GATM 5.2 0.2 (2.5 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 0.4 SLAND 3.5 0.9 BIM −0.6 (i.e. sources were too low or sinks high). atmospheric averaged over 2021 reached 414.71 ppm. Preliminary 2022 suggest an increase +1.0 (0.1 1.9 %) globally reaching 417.2 ppm, more than 50 above pre-industrial levels (around 278 ppm). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2021, but discrepancies up 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extratropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications set. presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2022 (Friedlingstein et al., 2022b).

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2023

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Language: Английский

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National contributions to climate change due to historical emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide since 1850

Scientific Data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: March 29, 2023

Abstract Anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ), methane (CH 4 ) and nitrous oxide (N O) have made significant contributions to global warming since the pre-industrial period are therefore targeted in international climate policy. There is substantial interest tracking apportioning national change informing equitable commitments decarbonisation. Here, we introduce a new dataset caused by historical dioxide, methane, during years 1851–2021, which consistent with latest findings IPCC. We calculate mean surface temperature response three gases, including recent refinements account for short atmospheric lifetime CH . report resulting from each gas, disaggregation fossil land use sectors. This will be updated annually as datasets updated.

Language: Английский

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The unprecedented Pacific Northwest heatwave of June 2021

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Feb. 9, 2023

In late June 2021 a heatwave of unprecedented magnitude impacted the Pacific Northwest region Canada and United States. Many locations broke all-time maximum temperature records by more than 5 °C, Canadian national record was broken 4.6 with new 49.6 °C. Here, we provide comprehensive summary this event its impacts. Upstream diabatic heating played key role in anomaly. Weather forecasts provided advanced notice event, while sub-seasonal showed an increased likelihood heat extreme lead times 10-20 days. The impacts were catastrophic, including hundreds attributable deaths across Northwest, mass-mortalities marine life, reduced crop fruit yields, river flooding from rapid snow glacier melt, substantial increase wildfires-the latter contributing to landslides months following. These examples can learn vivid depiction how climate change be so devastating.

Language: Английский

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Indicators of Global Climate Change 2022: annual update of large-scale indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(6), P. 2295 - 2327

Published: June 6, 2023

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC), including first global stocktake Paris Agreement that will conclude at COP28 in December 2023. Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence system. However, successive IPCC reports published intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, surface temperature changes, Earth's energy imbalance, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open data, science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.8000192, Smith et al., 2023a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show human-induced reached 1.14 [0.9 1.4] ∘C averaged over 2013–2022 decade 1.26 [1.0 1.6] 2022. Over period, has been increasing unprecedented rate 0.2 per decade. This high caused a combination being all-time 54 ± 5.3 GtCO2e last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increases have slowed, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change climate.

Language: Английский

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Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 1675 - 1709

Published: April 17, 2023

Abstract. The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming ocean, land, cryosphere, atmosphere. According to Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this planetary multiple decades human-driven results in unprecedented committed changes system, with adverse impacts for ecosystems human systems. inventory provides a measure imbalance (EEI) allows quantifying how much as well where stored. Here we show that continued accumulate heat, 381±61 ZJ from 1971 2020. This equivalent heating rate (i.e., EEI) 0.48±0.1 W m−2. majority, about 89 %, stored followed 6 % 1 atmosphere, 4 available melting cryosphere. Over most recent period (2006–2020), EEI amounts 0.76±0.2 fundamental global indicator scientific community public can use world doing task bringing anthropogenic change under control. Moreover, highly complementary other established ones like mean surface temperature it represents robust its future commitment. We call an implementation into Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake based best science. study, updated von Schuckmann et al. (2020), underpinned worldwide multidisciplinary collaboration demonstrates critical importance concerted international efforts monitoring community-based recommendations also urgently needed actions enabling continuity, archiving, rescuing, calibrating assure improved long-term capacity observing system. data are publicly available, more details provided Table 4.

Language: Английский

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Point of Departure and Key Concepts

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 121 - 196

Published: June 22, 2023

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Language: Английский

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Indicators of Global Climate Change 2023: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(6), P. 2625 - 2658

Published: June 4, 2024

Abstract. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments are the trusted source of scientific evidence for climate negotiations taking place under United Nations Framework Convention (UNFCCC). Evidence-based decision-making needs to be informed by up-to-date and timely information key indicators state system human influence global system. However, successive IPCC reports published at intervals 5–10 years, creating potential an gap between report cycles. We follow methods as close possible those used in Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) Working Group One (WGI) report. compile monitoring datasets produce estimates related forcing system: emissions greenhouse gases short-lived forcers, gas concentrations, radiative forcing, Earth's energy imbalance, surface temperature changes, warming attributed activities, remaining carbon budget, extremes. The purpose this effort, grounded open-data, open-science approach, is make annually updated reliable available public domain (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11388387, Smith et al., 2024a). As they traceable methods, can all parties involved UNFCCC help convey wider understanding latest knowledge its direction travel. show that, 2014–2023 decade average, observed was 1.19 [1.06 1.30] °C, which [1.0 1.4] °C human-induced. For single-year human-induced reached 1.31 [1.1 1.7] 2023 relative 1850–1900. best estimate below 2023-observed record 1.43 [1.32 1.53] indicating a substantial contribution internal variability record. Human-induced has been increasing rate that unprecedented instrumental record, reaching 0.26 [0.2–0.4] per over 2014–2023. This high caused combination net being persistent 53±5.4 Gt CO2e yr−1 last decade, well reductions strength aerosol cooling. Despite this, there increase CO2 slowed compared 2000s, depending societal choices, continued series these annual updates critical 2020s could track change some presented here.

Language: Английский

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Polar Regions

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 2319 - 2368

Published: June 22, 2023

A summary is not available for this content so a preview has been provided. As you have access to content, full PDF via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Language: Английский

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State of Wildfires 2023–2024

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(8), P. 3601 - 3685

Published: Aug. 13, 2024

Abstract. Climate change contributes to the increased frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant impacts on society environment. However, our understanding global distribution extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage regionalised research efforts. This inaugural State Wildfires report systematically analyses fire activity worldwide, identifying events from March 2023–February 2024 season. We assess causes, predictability, attribution these climate land use forecast future risks under different scenarios. During 2023–2024 season, 3.9×106 km2 burned slightly below average previous seasons, but carbon (C) emissions were 16 % above average, totalling 2.4 Pg C. Global C record in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times average) reduced low African savannahs. Notable included record-breaking extent Canada, largest recorded wildfire European Union (Greece), drought-driven western Amazonia northern parts South America, deadly Hawaii (100 deaths) Chile (131 deaths). Over 232 000 people evacuated Canada alone, highlighting severity human impact. Our revealed that multiple drivers needed cause areas activity. In Greece, a combination high weather an abundance dry fuels probability fires, whereas area anomalies weaker regions lower fuel loads higher direct suppression, particularly Canada. Fire prediction showed mild anomalous signal 1 2 months advance, Greece had shorter predictability horizons. Attribution indicated modelled up 40 %, 18 50 due during respectively. Meanwhile, seasons magnitudes has significantly anthropogenic change, 2.9–3.6-fold increase likelihood 20.0–28.5-fold Amazonia. By end century, similar magnitude 2023 are projected occur 6.3–10.8 more frequently medium–high emission scenario (SSP370). represents first annual effort catalogue events, explain their occurrence, predict risks. consolidating state-of-the-art science delivering key insights relevant policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, managers, we aim enhance society's resilience promote advances preparedness, mitigation, adaptation. New datasets presented this work available https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11400539 (Jones et al., 2024) https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.11420742 (Kelley 2024a).

Language: Английский

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