Climate Change 2022 – Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability

Published: June 22, 2023

The Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) provides a comprehensive assessment scientific literature relevant climate change impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. report recognizes interactions climate, ecosystems biodiversity, human societies, integrates across natural, ecological, social economic sciences. It emphasizes how efforts in reducing greenhouse gas emissions can come together process called resilient development, which enables liveable future for biodiversity humankind. IPCC is leading body assessing science. reports are produced comprehensive, objective transparent ways, ensuring they reflect full range views literature. Novel elements include focused topical assessments, an atlas presenting observed impacts risks from global regional scales. Available as Open Access Cambridge Core.

Language: Английский

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The 2021 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: code red for a healthy future

The Lancet, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 398(10311), P. 1619 - 1662

Published: Oct. 1, 2021

Language: Английский

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Vegetation fires in the Anthropocene

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(10), P. 500 - 515

Published: Aug. 18, 2020

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2023

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Language: Английский

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Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(3)

Published: April 11, 2022

Abstract Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, perpetuating change. Here, we review current understanding of impacts on weather (weather conditions conducive to ignition spread wildfires) consequences for regional activity as mediated by a range other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity lightning) ignition, suppression, land use). Through supplemental analyses, present stocktake trends in burned area (BA) during recent decades, examine how relates its drivers. Fire controls annual timing fires most regions also drives inter‐annual variability BA Mediterranean, Pacific US high latitude forests. Increases frequency extremity been globally pervasive due 1979–2019, meaning landscapes are primed burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases ∼50% or higher seen some extratropical forest ecoregions including high‐latitude forests 2001–2019, though interannual remains large these regions. Nonetheless, can override relationship between weather. For example, savannahs strongly patterns fuel production fragmentation naturally fire‐prone agriculture. Similarly, tropical relate deforestation rates degradation than changing Overall, has reduced 27% past two part decline African savannahs. According models, prevalence already emerged beyond pre‐industrial Mediterranean change, emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels warming. Moreover, several major wildfires experienced years, Australian bushfires 2019/2020, occurred amidst were considerably likely Current models incompletely reproduce observed spatial based their existing representations relationships controls, historical vary across models. Advances observation controlling supporting addition optimization processes exerting upwards pressure intensity weather, this escalate with each increment global Improvements better interactions climate, extremes, humans required predict future mitigate against consequences.

Language: Английский

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Connections of climate change and variability to large and extreme forest fires in southeast Australia

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(1)

Published: Jan. 7, 2021

Abstract The 2019/20 Black Summer bushfire disaster in southeast Australia was unprecedented: the extensive area of forest burnt, radiative power fires, and extraordinary number fires that developed into extreme pyroconvective events were all unmatched historical record. Australia’s hottest driest year on record, 2019, characterised by exceptionally dry fuel loads primed landscape to burn when exposed dangerous fire weather ignition. combination climate variability long-term trends generated extremes experienced compounding effects two or more modes their fire-promoting phases (as occurred 2019) has historically increased chances large occurring Australia. Palaeoclimate evidence also demonstrates tropical Pacific Indian ocean are now unusually frequent compared with natural pre-industrial times. Indicators danger have already emerged outside range experience, suggesting projections made than a decade ago increases climate-driven risk would be detectable 2020, indeed eventuated. multiple change contributors Australia, as well observed non-linear escalation extent intensity, raise likelihood may continue rapidly intensify future. Improving local national adaptation measures while pursuing ambitious global mitigation efforts provide best strategy for limiting further

Language: Английский

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Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 15(9), P. 094016 - 094016

Published: March 30, 2020

Abstract California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm and late onset precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes the occurrence magnitude meteorological factors that enable California, use climate model simulations to ascertain whether these are attributable human-caused change. We show state-wide increases temperature (∼1 °C) decreases precipitation (∼30%) over past four decades contributed aggregate indices (+20%). As a result, frequency days (95th percentile) weather—which preferentially associated wildfires—has more than doubled since early 1980s. further find an increase model-estimated probability ∼1950, including long-term trend toward increased same-season co-occurrence northern southern California. Our analyses suggest continued change will amplify number end century, though pathway consistent UN Paris commitments would substantially curb increase. Given acute societal impacts years, our findings critical relevance for ongoing efforts manage wildfire risks other regions.

Language: Английский

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Fire as a fundamental ecological process: Research advances and frontiers

Journal of Ecology, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 108(5), P. 2047 - 2069

Published: April 18, 2020

Abstract Fire is a powerful ecological and evolutionary force that regulates organismal traits, population sizes, species interactions, community composition, carbon nutrient cycling ecosystem function. It also presents rapidly growing societal challenge, due to both increasingly destructive wildfires fire exclusion in fire‐dependent ecosystems. As an process, integrates complex feedbacks among biological, social geophysical processes, requiring coordination across several fields scales of study. Here, we describe the diversity ways which operates as fundamental process on Earth. We explore research priorities six categories ecology: (a) characteristics regimes, (b) changing (c) effects above‐ground ecology, (d) below‐ground (e) behaviour (f) ecology modelling. identify three emergent themes: need study temporal scales, assess mechanisms underlying variety involving improve representation range modelling contexts. Synthesis : regimes our relationships with continue change, prioritizing these areas will facilitate understanding causes consequences future fires rethinking management alternatives.

Language: Английский

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Wildfire-Driven Forest Conversion in Western North American Landscapes

BioScience, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 70(8), P. 659 - 673

Published: May 18, 2020

Changing disturbance regimes and climate can overcome forest ecosystem resilience. Following high-severity fire, recovery may be compromised by lack of tree seed sources, warmer drier postfire climate, or short-interval reburning. A potential outcome the loss resilience is conversion prefire to a different type nonforest vegetation. Conversion implies major, extensive, enduring changes in dominant species, life forms, functions, with impacts on services. In present article, we synthesize growing body evidence fire-driven our understanding its causes across western North America. We assess capacity predict highlight important uncertainties. Increasing vulnerability changing fire activity compels shifts management approaches, propose key themes for applied research coproduced scientists managers support decision-making an era when not return.

Language: Английский

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Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective

Environmental Research Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 012001 - 012001

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and harms experienced on ground by people, property, nature. It therefore allows disentangling of different drivers from human-induced change hence provides valuable information adapt assess loss damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out reach. This due limitations in science, including capacity for studying types as well geographical heterogeneity both impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge influences five hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), impacts recent events each type, thus degree which various are attributable change. For instance, heat extremes have increased likelihood intensity worldwide with tens thousands deaths directly attributable. likely a significant underestimate limited availability lower- middle-income countries. Meanwhile, cyclone rainfall storm surge height individual across all basins. In North Atlantic basin, amplified that, combined, caused half trillion USD damages. At same time, severe droughts many parts world not To advance our understanding present-day developments several levels required. These include improving recording around world, coverage studies regions, using explore contributions non-climate impacts.

Language: Английский

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