Quantifying the Benefits of Altimetry Assimilation in Seasonal Forecasts of the Upper Ocean

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 128(5)

Published: April 21, 2023

Abstract Satellite altimetry measurements of sea surface height provide near‐global ocean state observations on sub‐monthly time scales, which are not always utilized by seasonal climate forecasting systems. As early as the mid‐1990s, attempts were made to assimilate initialize models. These experiments demonstrated improved skill, especially compared that did subsurface temperature information. Nowadays, some operational models utilize in their assimilation systems, whereas others do not. Here, we assess impact prediction skill variables two systems from European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (SEAS5) and Australian Bureau Meteorology (ACCESS‐S). We show assimilating improves initialization temperatures, well forecasts monthly variability upper‐ocean heat content level. Skill improvements largest subtropics, where there typically less available forecasts. In tropics, no noticeable forecast skill. The positive related does seem affect predictions temperature. Whether this is because current close potential predictability limit surface, or perhaps fully exploited, remains a question. summary, find utilizing overall global at least

Language: Английский

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A Hybrid Dynamical Approach for Seasonal Prediction of Sea‐Level Anomalies: A Pilot Study for Charleston, South Carolina

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 127(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2022

Abstract Using Earth system models for seasonal sea‐level prediction remains challenging due to model biases and initialization shocks. Here we present a hybrid dynamical approach alleviate some of these issues. The is based on convolving atmospheric forcings with sensitivities forcings. are pre‐computed by the adjoint Estimating Circulation Climate Ocean (ECCO) system. concatenation ECCO before 10‐member predicted forcing ensemble from Community System Model version 4 (CCSM4) after initialization, offline bias corrections applied using observationally‐constrained climatology. As pilot study, conducted 12‐month hindcasts 1995 2016 in Charleston (United States East Coast). Our avoids drifts CCSM4 predictions beats climatology damped persistence as predictors up 6‐month lead time. skill comes two factors: (a) prior influence sea level through delayed oceanic adjustments (e.g., coastally‐trapped waves, open‐ocean Rossby advection steric anomalies) leading skillful beyond 2 months (b) have relatively good at 1–2 times. method computationally efficient operational specific locations can attribute uncertainty or particular regions, thereby providing useful information centers improving their systems.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal Predictability of Bottom Temperatures Along the North American West Coast

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(9)

Published: Sept. 1, 2024

Abstract Bottom Temperature anomalies (BTA) along the North American West Coast strongly influence benthic and demersal marine species. However, to date seasonal BTA forecast efforts have been limited sources of predictability largely undiagnosed. Here, an empirical model called a Linear Inverse Model (LIM), constructed from high‐resolution ocean reanalysis, is developed predict BTAs diagnose predictive skill. The LIM considerably more skillful than damped persistence, particularly in winter, with anomaly correlation (AC) skill values 0.6 at 6‐month lead. Analysis LIM's dynamics shows that elevated linked developing El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events, driving predicted responses whose peaks occur longer leads increasing latitude. Weaker ENSO‐related signals northern coastal region still yield high because noise there also weaker. Likewise, signal‐to‐noise ratio highest for bathymetry depths ∼50–150 m, maximizing there. Together, these components lead “forecasts opportunity” when anticipates especially prediction For top 20% events identified by as forecasts opportunity, hindcasts AC averaging 0.7, while remaining 80% mean only 0.4, suggesting can leverage produce forecasts.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal predictions of sea surface height in BCC-CSM1.1m and their modulation by tropical climate dominant modes

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 281, P. 106466 - 106466

Published: Oct. 13, 2022

Language: Английский

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Toward Regional Marine Ecological Forecasting Using Global Climate Model Predictions From Subseasonal to Decadal Timescales: Bottlenecks and Recommendations

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 9

Published: Aug. 1, 2022

This perspective paper discusses how the research community can promote enhancement of marine ecosystem forecasts using physical ocean conditions predicted by global climate models (GCMs). We review major prediction projects and outline new opportunities to achieve skillful biological forecasts. Physical are operationally for subseasonal seasonal timescales, multi-year predictions have been enhanced recently. However, forecasting applications currently limited availability oceanic data; most subseasonal-to-seasonal make only sea-surface temperature (SST) publicly available, though other variables useful also calculated in GCMs. To resolve bottleneck data availability, we recommend that centers increase range available public, perhaps starting with an expanded suite 2-dimensional variables, whose storage requirements much smaller than 3-dimensional variables. Allowing forecast output be downloaded a selected region, rather whole globe, would facilitate uptake. highlight both (e.g., approaches dynamical statistical downscaling) conducting reforecasting experiments) offer lessons learned help guide their development. In order accelerate this area, suggest establishing case studies (i.e., particular events as targets) improve coordination. Advancing our capacity is crucial success UN Decade Ocean Science, which one seven desired outcomes “A Predicted Ocean”.

Language: Английский

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Assessment of water levels from 43 years of NOAA’s Coastal Ocean Reanalysis (CORA) for the Gulf of Mexico and East Coasts

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: June 3, 2024

Coastal water level information is crucial for understanding flood occurrences and changing risks. Here, we validate the preliminary version (0.9) of NOAA’s Ocean Reanalysis (CORA), which a 43-year reanalysis (1979–2021) hourly coastal levels Gulf Mexico Atlantic (i.e., East Coast region, or GEC). CORA-GEC v0.9 was conducted by Renaissance Computing Institute using coupled ADCIRC+SWAN circulation wave model. The model uses an unstructured mesh nodes with varying spatial resolution that averages 400 m near coast much coarser in open ocean. Water variations associated tides meteorological forcing are explicitly modeled, while lower-frequency included dynamically assimilating observations from National Level Observation Network. We compare CORA to were either assimilated not, find generally performs better than state-of-the-art global ocean (GLORYS12) capturing variability on monthly, seasonal, interannual timescales as well long-term trend. non-tidal residuals also shown be resolved when compared observations. Lastly, present case study extreme inundations around Miami, Florida demonstrate application studying Our assessment suggests provides valuable flooding occurrence 1979–2021 areas experiencing changes across multiple time scales. potentially can enhance risk along parts U.S. do not have historical

Language: Английский

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Advancing sea level anomaly modeling in the black sea with LSTM Auto-Encoders: A novel approach

Ocean Modelling, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 102463 - 102463

Published: Nov. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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A Link Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and North Atlantic Subtropical Ocean Heat Content

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Abstract Using a recently developed 1/12th degree regional ocean model, we establish link between U.S. East Coast sea level variability and offshore upper heat content change. This manifests as cross‐shore mass redistribution driven by an thermosteric response to subsurface warming or cooling. Approximately 50% of simulated monthly interannual coastal variance south Cape Hatteras can be statistically accounted for this mechanism, realized function hypsometry, gyre scale warming, the depth dependence density explains nonstationarity covariance, specifically observed modeled behavior after 2010. Since approximately 2010, elevated rates rise partly explained result shoreward due within North Atlantic subtropical gyre. These results reveal mechanism that connects local broader region identifies influence changes on level. analysis presents framework identifying new regions may susceptible enhanced helps bridge gap quantifying large change anticipating impacts make flooding storm surge more acutely damaging.

Language: Английский

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Influence of Ocean Model Horizontal Resolution on the Representation of Global Annual‐To‐Multidecadal Coastal Sea Level Variability

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2024

Abstract Emerging high‐resolution global ocean climate models are expected to improve both hindcasts and forecasts of coastal sea level variability by better resolving turbulence other small‐scale phenomena. To examine this hypothesis, we compare annual multidecadal over the 1993–2018 period, as observed tide gauges simulated two identically forced models, at (LR) (HR) horizontal resolution. Differences between HR LR, misfits with gauges, spatially coherent regional alongcoast scales. Resolution‐related improvements largest in, near, marginal seas. Near attached western boundary currents, variance is several times greater in than but correlations observations may be reduced, due intrinsic variability. Globally, simulations, comprises from zero 80% variance. Outside eddy‐rich regions, generally damped relative observations. We hypothesize that weak related large‐scale, remotely forced, variability; tropical underestimated 50% satellite altimetric Similar dynamical regimes (e.g., currents) exhibit a consistent sensitivity resolution, suggesting these findings generalizable regions limited

Language: Английский

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Real-time multi-month forecasting of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) habitat in the western and central Pacific Ocean for improved fishing efficiency and fisheries management

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 80(10), P. 2490 - 2503

Published: Oct. 13, 2023

Abstract Marine fish experience shifts in their distribution due to changes the physical and biological environments. These pose challenges for fishery businesses management international fisheries organizations. In western central Pacific Ocean, spatial of skipjack tuna (Katsuwonus pelamis) climate variability often influence fishing activities economic benefits. This study provides an operational forecast enhance decision-making process managers fishermen by informing them about distributions coming months. Monthly forecasts habitat are generated utilizing a species model (boosted regression trees) combination with real-time environmental forecasts. An alternative method (dynamic time warping) is proposed improve monthly chlorophyll forecasts, which crucial enhancing forecasting. To assess prediction skills model, retrospective analysis was conducted, forecasting over 9-month periods comparing observed occurrences. The results demonstrate that 67.9% catches occurred within forecasted habitats, indicating skillfully predicted movements 9 months advance. updated can serve as potential tool resource developing effective strategies fishers planning operations sustainably responsibly.

Language: Английский

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