Global Changes in Water Vapor 1979–2020

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 127(12)

Published: June 11, 2022

Abstract Global‐scale changes in water vapor and responses to surface temperature variability since 1979 are evaluated across a range of satellite ground‐based observations, reanalysis (ERA5) coupled atmosphere‐only CMIP6 climate model simulations. Global‐mean column integrated increased by 1%/decade during 1988–2014 observations However, simulations overestimate trends this is partly explained past studies showing that internal suppressed observed warming period. Decreases low‐altitude tropical ERA5 before around 1993 considered suspect based on inconsistency with microwave data 1979. Atmospheric Infra‐red Sounder does not capture the tropospheric 2002 shown other satellite, reanalysis, products. global interannual consistent sets increases ∼4%–5% near 10%–15% at 300 hPa for each 1°C increase temperature. Global thermodynamic amplification upper Clausius Clapeyron dependence saturation pressure dominated ocean responses. Upper moistening larger greater warming.

Language: Английский

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Global Surface Ocean Acidification Indicators From 1750 to 2100

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(3)

Published: March 1, 2023

Abstract Accurately predicting future ocean acidification (OA) conditions is crucial for advancing OA research at regional and global scales, guiding society's mitigation adaptation efforts. This study presents a new model‐data fusion product covering 10 surface indicators based on 14 Earth System Models (ESMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), along with three recent observational carbon data products. The include fugacity of dioxide, pH total scale, hydrogen ion content, free carbonate aragonite saturation state, calcite Revelle Factor, dissolved inorganic alkalinity content. evolution these presented 1° × grid as decadal averages every years preindustrial (1750), through historical (1850–2010), to five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (2020–2100): SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, SSP3‐7.0, SSP5‐8.5. These trajectories represent an improvement over previous products respect quantity, spatial temporal coverage, diversity underlying model simulations, provided SSPs. generated offers state‐of‐the‐art management tool 21st century under combined stressors climate change acidification. gridded available in NetCDF National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Centers Environmental Information: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/data/oceans/ncei/ocads/metadata/0259391.html , maps are jpeg at: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/ocean-carbon-acidification-data-system/synthesis/surface-oa-indicators.html .

Language: Английский

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Seasonal advance of intense tropical cyclones in a warming climate

Nature, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 623(7985), P. 83 - 89

Published: Sept. 27, 2023

Abstract Intense tropical cyclones (TCs), which often peak in autumn 1,2 , have destructive impacts on life and property 3–5 making it crucial to determine whether any changes intense TCs are likely occur. Here, we identify a significant seasonal advance of since the 1980s most oceans, with earlier-shifting rates 3.7 3.2 days per decade for Northern Southern Hemispheres, respectively. This is closely related rapid intensification events, favoured by observed earlier onset favourable oceanic conditions. Using simulations from multiple global climate models, large ensembles individual forcing experiments, conditions detectable primarily driven greenhouse gas forcing. The will increase likelihood intersecting other extreme rainfall usually summer 6,7 thereby leading disproportionate impacts.

Language: Английский

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Zooplankton grazing is the largest source of uncertainty for marine carbon cycling in CMIP6 models

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: June 14, 2023

Abstract The current generation of Earth system models used by the United Nations to project future climate scenarios (CMIP6) relies heavily on marine biogeochemical track fate carbon absorbed into oceans. Here we compare 11 CMIP6 and find largest source inter-model uncertainty in their representation cycle is phytoplankton-specific loss rates zooplankton grazing. This over three times larger than that net primary production driven large differences prescribed grazing dynamics. We run a controlled sensitivity experiment global model small changes dynamics (roughly 5% what across models) can increase secondary export 5 2 PgC yr −1 , respectively, even when tuned identical production, likely biasing predictions states food security.

Language: Английский

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Building energy savings by green roofs and cool roofs in current and future climates

npj Urban Sustainability, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: April 3, 2024

Abstract The global energy demand has greatly impacted greenhouse gas emissions and climate change. Since buildings are responsible for a large portion of consumption, this study investigates the energy-saving potential green roofs cool in reducing building consumption. Using an integrated approach that combines change modeling simulation, evaluates these strategies six cities (Cairo, Hong Kong, Seoul, London, Los Angeles, Sao Paulo) under current future scenarios. results show climates, implementation at city level can lead to substantial annual reductions, with up 65.51% 71.72% reduction HVAC respectively, by 2100. These findings guide different climatic zones worldwide, informing selection design suitable roof mitigation specific urban contexts.

Language: Английский

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Future Changes in Global Atmospheric Rivers Projected by CMIP6 Models

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 129(3)

Published: Jan. 31, 2024

Abstract Understanding the present and future features of atmospheric rivers (ARs) is critical for effective disaster prevention mitigation efforts. This study comprehensively assesses performance ARs in Phase 6 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) models on both seasonal interannual timescales within historical period investigates projection under different emission scenarios a global scale. The multi‐model mean results obtained using PanLu detection algorithm consistently exhibit agreement with observational AR climatology capture fluctuations as well relationships large‐scale drivers. projections reveal increased frequency, intensity, duration, spatial extent decreased landfall intervals regional variations fluctuations. Besides, frequency increase will accelerate around middle century, attributed to non‐linear rise surface temperature. Furthermore, mid‐latitude are gradually shifting toward higher latitudes hemispheres SSP585, Greenland experiencing substantial AR‐induced precipitation. hydrological implications arising from more frequent manifested prominently heavy precipitation (HP), regions historically characterized by lower occurrence also receiving percentage ARs. At last, an incremental decomposition highlights dominant role thermal effects relatively limited contributions dynamical changes. interplay between regionally divergent temperature amplification dynamically driven responses across globe.

Language: Английский

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Predicting Quercus gilva distribution dynamics and its response to climate change induced by GHGs emission through MaxEnt modeling

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 357, P. 120841 - 120841

Published: April 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Observation-constrained estimates of the global ocean carbon sink from Earth system models

Biogeosciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 19(18), P. 4431 - 4457

Published: Sept. 15, 2022

Abstract. The ocean slows global warming by currently taking up around one-quarter of all human-made CO2 emissions. However, estimates the anthropogenic carbon uptake vary across various observation-based and model-based approaches. Here, we show that sink simulated Earth system models can be constrained two physical parameters, present-day sea surface salinity in subtropical–polar frontal zone Southern Ocean strength Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, one biogeochemical parameter, Revelle factor ocean. quantifies chemical capacity seawater to take for a given increase atmospheric CO2. By exploiting this three-dimensional emergent constraint with observations, provide new model- estimate past, present, future is 9 %–11 % larger than previously estimated. Furthermore, reduces uncertainties past present 42 %–59 32 %–62 depending on scenario, allowing better understanding cycle better-targeted climate policies. Our results are good agreement air–sea flux over last three decades based observations partial pressure at Global Carbon Budget 2021, they suggest existing hindcast ocean-only model simulations underestimate sink. key parameters identified here should quantified when presenting as used adjust these if necessary. enhanced acidification 21st century, which further threatens marine ecosystems reducing water volume projected undersaturated towards aragonite 3.7×106–7.4×106 km3 more originally projected.

Language: Английский

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Assessment and Constraint of Mesozooplankton in CMIP6 Earth System Models

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 36(11)

Published: Nov. 1, 2022

Abstract Although zooplankton play a substantial role in the biological carbon pump and serve as crucial link between primary producers higher trophic level consumers, skillful representation of is not often focus ocean biogeochemical models. Systematic evaluations models could improve their representation, but so far, skill assessment Earth system model (ESM) ensembles have included zooplankton. Here we use recently developed global, observationally based map mesozooplankton biomass to assess six CMIP6 ESMs. We also employ biome‐based ability these reproduce observed relationship surface chlorophyll. The combined analysis found that most were able reasonably simulate large regional variations at global scale. Additionally, three ESMs simulated mesozooplankton‐chlorophyll within observational bounds, which used an emergent constraint on future projections. highlight where differences structure parameters may give rise varied distributions under historic conditions, resultant wide ensemble spread projected changes biomass. Despite differences, strength relationships across all was related globally biomes. These results suggest improved observations chlorophyll will better constrain projections climate change impacts important animals.

Language: Английский

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Seasonal Variability of the Surface Ocean Carbon Cycle: A Synthesis

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(9)

Published: Aug. 24, 2023

Abstract The seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of variability in air‐sea CO 2 flux most regions global ocean, yet discrepancies between different seasonality estimates are rather large. As part Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase project (RECCAP2), we synthesize surface ocean p from models observation‐based estimates, focusing on both a present‐day climatology decadal changes 1980s 2010s. Four main findings emerge: First, biogeochemistry (GOBMs) ( products) disagree amplitude phase, primarily due to DIC. Second, has increased over last three decades products GOBMs. Third, increases amplitudes subtropical biomes for GOBMs driven by increasing DIC concentrations stemming uptake anthropogenic (C ant ). In subpolar Southern Ocean biomes, however, change dominated C invasion, whereas an indeterminate combination invasion climate modulates changes. Fourth, biome‐aggregated largely detectable against mapping uncertainty (reducible) natural (irreducible), but not at gridpoint scale much northern oceans Ocean, underscoring importance sustained high‐quality seasonally resolved measurements these regions.

Language: Английский

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