地球系统视角下的多圈层复合极端事件研究进展与展望 DOI Open Access

增超 郝,

阳 陈

SCIENTIA SINICA Terrae, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 9, 2023

复合极端事件对社会、经济和生态所造成的影响相较于各事件独立发生时更为严重, 这类事件已成为近10年来地球科学领域的研究热点之一. 气候变化背景下许多复合极端事件频发、强发, 极端事件间的组合形式也呈现出新特点, 对科学研究和防灾应对提出了更高的要求和更严峻的挑战. 本文在地球系统多圈层相互作用的视角下系统梳理了多类高影响复合极端事件的定义、机理、变化、归因、预估等方面的研究现状; 探讨了复合极端事件研究在数据需求、机理分析、模型模拟、归因预估、风险评估和适应应对等方面的挑战及可能的解决方案; 进一步展望了该领域未来可能的发展趋势和急需多学科、多部门联合攻关的重点研究内容. 在气候变化重塑极端事件类型的背景下, 科学研究、防灾减灾和应对气候变化工作均需从传统单一极端事件视角向复合极端事件视角转变, 对研究对象、思路和方法进行全方位的革新. 本文对复合极端事件研究领域的发展和多学科领域的交叉合作将起到一定的促进作用.

Compound extreme hourly rainfall preconditioned by heatwaves most likely in the mid-latitudes DOI Creative Commons
Christoph Sauter, Hayley J. Fowler, Seth Westra

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 40, P. 100563 - 100563

Published: April 21, 2023

The potential compounding behaviour of heatwaves and extreme rainfall have important implications for a range hazards, including wildfires flooding, yet remain poorly understood. In this global study, we analyse the likelihood 1-hr immediately following heatwave, identify climate zones where phenomenon is most pronounced. We find strongest heatwave-extreme relationships in central Europe Japan, after heatwave increased by approximately four times compared to climatology. Significant found mainly temperate or colder climates, provided these areas receive ample moisture. As both are expected become more frequent future, our results indicate that impacts from events might significantly increase as well.

Language: Английский

Citations

29

Research progresses and prospects of multi-sphere compound extremes from the Earth System perspective DOI
Zengchao Hao, Yang Chen

Science China Earth Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 67(2), P. 343 - 374

Published: Jan. 4, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

15

Compound successive dry-hot and wet extremes in China with global warming and urbanization DOI
Kunlong He, Xiaohong Chen, Jiayue Zhou

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 636, P. 131332 - 131332

Published: May 14, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

7

Downscaled compound heatwave and heavy-precipitation analyses for Guangdong, China in the twenty-first century DOI

Jiayan Ren,

Guohe Huang, Xiong Zhou

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 61(5-6), P. 2885 - 2905

Published: March 1, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

14

Compound climate extremes over the globe during 1951–2021: Changes in risk and driving factors DOI
Haijiang Wu, Xiaoling Su, Vijay P. Singh

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 627, P. 130387 - 130387

Published: Nov. 2, 2023

Language: Английский

Citations

10

Successive warm-wet and warm-dry events in the Great Lakes Basin: future projections using CMIP6 models DOI

Melika RahimiMovaghar,

Mohammad Reza Najafi, Rajesh R. Shrestha

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 63(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Multiscale Nonlinear Response of Extreme Meteorological–Hydrothermal Events in the Upper Reaches of the Yangtze River DOI Open Access
Long Yu, Wenxian Guo, Huan Yang

et al.

Ecohydrology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 13, 2025

ABSTRACT Under the backdrop of climate warming, outbreak short‐term extreme heat events can easily lead to irreversible changes in aquatic ecosystems. Delving into their intrinsic driving mechanisms and nonlinear characteristics is key preventing natural disasters. This study, focusing on upper Yangtze River as research area, constructs a joint copula function model analyze occurrence probability return period meteorological events. Through bivariate cross–wavelet transform method, study explores multiscale dynamic response relationships phase meteorological–hydrothermal River. Furthermore, multifractal responses for was established. The results indicate that high‐heat tend occur more frequently severely, with duration–kurtosis likely coincide within 2‐year period, well high‐intensity low‐frequency duration–severity occurring simultaneously. Overall, before 2005, high‐hydrothermal exhibited lagging behind changes, which then shifted from lag lead. three scenarios change, exhibit clear relationship. Apart duration, severity kurtosis all show significant relationships.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Substantial increases in compound climate extremes and associated socio-economic exposure across China under future climate change DOI Creative Commons
Fang Pei, Taihua Wang, Dawen Yang

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Jan. 14, 2025

Under climate change, China faces intensifying compound extreme events with serious socio-economic ramifications, yet their future variations remain poorly understood. Here, we estimate historical hotspots and changes of two typical events, i.e., sequential heatwave precipitation (SHP) concurrent drought (CDH) across China, leveraging a bivariate bias correction method to adjust projections from global models. Results show substantial increases in frequency, duration, magnitude for both the durations projected double nationwide. The are more evident under higher emission scenarios, could be largely underestimated if neglecting variable dependence during process. will escalate exposure China's major urban clusters, among which Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao face highest risk. Our findings underscore necessity carbon controls, call adaptive measures mitigate threats induced by rising hazards changing climate.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Urbanization Intensifies Heavy Hourly Rainfall Preconditioned by Heatwaves DOI Creative Commons
Zifeng Deng, Gabriele Villarini, Zhaoli Wang

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)

Published: Jan. 16, 2025

Abstract Heatwave preconditioned‐heavy rainfall (HW_HR), a preconditioned compound event, can cause more damage than single heatwave or rainstorm. Both heatwaves and rainstorms be exacerbated by the presence of cities, but response their compounding to urbanization remains unclear especially at hourly scale. Here, we investigate spatial temporal responses HW_HR typical urban agglomeration, Pearl River Delta, using observations scenario‐based numerical simulations. Compared rural areas, show that in areas has higher probability occurrence mean intensity, its diurnal cycle frequency is narrower, peaking afternoon. The intensity effects most significant, with urbanization‐induced increase being five times non‐heatwave (noHW_HR). Our simulations support suggest changes are intense spatially heterogeneous relatively weak continuous noHW_HR. also preconditioning not only amplifies key variables alter atmospheric conditions provides pre‐storm unstable environment for urban‐induced warm‐dry surface trigger enhance convection. sub‐daily suggests preconditioning‐induced thermodynamic gradually decrease, whereas dynamic as event approaches. study highlights importance understanding on events, providing new insights into role preconditions water cycle.

Language: Английский

Citations

0

Causality of compound extreme heat-precipitation events in Northeastern China DOI Creative Commons
Yao‐Hsu Yang, Chaoxia Yuan

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 316, P. 107975 - 107975

Published: Feb. 7, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

0