Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 62(6), P. 5143 - 5155
Published: March 18, 2024
Language: Английский
The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 881, P. 163396 - 163396
Published: April 11, 2023
It has been proven that marine heatwaves (MHWs) have increased in frequency, duration, and intensity over the past few decades, this trend will accelerate further under continued global warming. While more intense frequent MHWs are an expected consequence of rising sea surface temperatures (SSTs) warming, it remains unclear to what degree per Celsius warming SSTs contributes changes MHW metrics. Here, we focus on how metrics evolve with SST by using adaptive data analysis method based observational datasets covering four decades. We find globally averaged increasing rates annual maximum approximately 3.7 events, 7.5 days, 2.2° rise, respectively. The for days fraction spatial extents ocean affected 58.8 13.9 % Based these observational-based projected from selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models, distributions cumulative exhibit 2-fold, 4-fold, 8-fold increases three socioeconomic pathways (i.e., SSP126, SSP245, SSP585), increase 224.2 ± 26.9 largest occur northeast Pacific, North Atlantic, south Indian Oceans, parts Southern Ocean, 14.8 5.7 reaching a permanent state end twenty-first century SSP585.
Language: Английский
Citations
26
Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1), P. 115 - 150
Published: Jan. 20, 2025
Abstract. The ocean is forced at the surface by a heat flux and freshwater field from atmosphere. Short-timescale variability in these fluxes, i.e., noise, can influence long-term might even affect Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Often this noise assumed to be Gaussian, but detailed analyses of its statistics appear lacking. Here we study characteristics reanalysis data for two fields that are commonly used force ocean-only models: evaporation minus precipitation 2 m air temperature. We construct several models both fields, pointwise normal inverse Gaussian distribution model gives best performance. An analysis CMIP6 shows do reasonable job representing standard deviation skewness excess kurtosis more difficult capture. performs better than as forcing study, example, noise-induced transitions AMOC.
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Climate of the past, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 20(4), P. 1067 - 1086
Published: May 2, 2024
Abstract. During the mid-Pliocene warm period (mPWP; 3.264–3.025 Ma), atmospheric CO2 concentrations were approximately 400 ppm, and Antarctic Ice Sheet was substantially reduced compared to today. Antarctica is surrounded by Southern Ocean, which plays a crucial role in global oceanic circulation climate regulation. Using results from Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP2), we investigate Ocean conditions during mPWP with respect pre-industrial period. We find that mean sea surface temperature (SST) warming 2.8 °C, while SST 2.4 °C. The enhanced strongly tied dramatic decrease ice cover over Ocean. also see freshening of ocean (sub)surface, driven an increase precipitation Antarctica. warmer fresher leads highly stratified can be related weakening deep abyssal overturning circulation. Sensitivity simulations show largely consequence reduction Sheet. In addition, geographic boundary are responsible for half warming, loss, precipitation, stratification From these results, conclude has substantial influence on state exacerbates changes induced higher concentration alone. This relevant long-term future as expect melting western future, effect not currently taken into account projections Coupled (CMIP) ensembles.
Language: Английский
Citations
6
Trees Forests and People, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15, P. 100487 - 100487
Published: Jan. 7, 2024
This study aimed to predict distribution and Total Carbon Stock (TCS) dynamics of Acacia abyssinica, Carissa edulis, Juniperus procera in the Hugumbrda Grat-Kahsu National Forest current (1970-2000) future climate scenarios (2021-2100). Bioclimatic, soil, elevation data were used for modeling using Maxent, with model accuracy evaluated Area Under Curve (AUC), Kappa test True Skill Statistic (TSS). Significant differences observed species between periods under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) SSP2-4.5 SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The main contributing predictors temperature seasonality, altitude, precipitation warmest quarter. All projected shift higher altitudes future. abyssinica's potential (42.9%) could expand 77.1-99.2% (SSP2-4.5) 63.8-72.9% (SSP5-8.5). edulis extend from 54.2% 89.5-100% 77.1-87.9% procera's might increase 63.8% 91.8-99.7% 78-88.1% is expected result an expansion new suitable areas all three species. TCS estimates per km2 169 (Acacia abyssinica), 46 (Carissa edulis), 1381 ton (Juniperus procera). In SSP2-4.5, rise 25,688 59,319 tons, 8,832 16,284 312,106 487,493 tons. SSP5-8.5, projections indicated 43,602 tons 14,306 430,872 concludes by recommending strategic planting these both enhance ecosystem services ensure their sustained existence face changing climates.
Language: Английский
Citations
4
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(2)
Published: Jan. 15, 2024
Abstract Central Asia (CA) has experienced a faster temperature rise than the global land over past decades. However, role of regional/global drivers and their associated underlying biophysical mechanisms is poorly explored. Here, we combined observations model simulations to show that rapid warming in CA was overwhelmingly contributed by spring (i.e., 49.23%). The decrease cloud cover (CLD) main driver CA, leading surface receiving more solar radiation, consequently heating air temperature, contributing almost 40.79% warming. Besides, strengthening sea level pressure states results continuous subsidence vertical motion which unfavorable for formation. Our study will deepen our understanding climate evolution arid CA.
Language: Английский
Citations
4
Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 130(2)
Published: Jan. 31, 2025
Abstract Estimation of sea surface upward longwave radiation (SULR) are generally dependent on temperature (SST), in accordance with the Stefan‐Boltzmann law. The consensus is that inaccuracy estimating SST contributes to bias estimation. This study proposes incorporation spray layer radiation, as when covered by layer, it becomes primary source emitted atmosphere. Analysis ERA5 data suggests SULR associated and whitecap coverage. Incorporating estimation results a decrease overestimation over 15%. revised scheme, implemented CESM2.1.3, led an average percentage improvement around 16%. localized areas southeastern Pacific Indian Oceans reaches up 40%. regions where has been effectively reduced mainly found within latitudes 30°, negative Southern Ocean increased. offers novel insight into errors SULR.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Atmospheric Science Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 26(1)
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
Abstract It is difficult to model changes in the likelihood of tropical cyclones under climate change date. We do this, for first time, by a applying stochastic cyclone event set generated Imperial College Storm Model attribute contribution case Typhoon Haiyan 2013. Compared pre‐industrial baseline, we estimate that typhoon with landfall maximum wind speed like was larger +3.5 m/s. This good agreement previous full physics numerical estimates. A type has current return period 850 years, and fractional attributable risk due 98%. Without change, this very unlikely. The information available from IRIS could inform subsidizing catastrophe bond yield context loss damage fund.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Elsevier eBooks, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 87 - 104
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 12
Published: Feb. 7, 2025
Global climate is regulated by the ocean, which stores, releases, and transports large amounts of mass, heat, carbon, oxygen. Understanding, monitoring, predicting exchanges these quantities across ocean’s surface, their interactions with atmosphere, horizontal vertical pathways through global oceans, are key for advancing fundamental knowledge improving forecasts longer-term projections climate, weather, ocean ecosystems. The existing observing system provides immense value science society in this regard supplying data essential advancements. tropical particular has been developed over decades, motivated part far-reaching complex impacts variability change. However, changes needs priorities, new challenges associated change, advances technologies demand periodic evaluations to ensure that stakeholders’ met. Previous reviews assessments have focused separately on individual basins needs. Here we provide a broader perspective covering as whole. Common gaps, needs, recommendations identified, interbasin differences driven socioeconomic disparities discussed, building concept an integrated pantropical system. Finally, improved observations basin interactions, oceanic atmospheric pathways, presented, emphasizing benefits can be achieved closer coordination international partnerships.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1)
Published: Feb. 8, 2025
Language: Английский
Citations
0