Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1)
Published: Sept. 28, 2024
Language: Английский
Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369
Published: Nov. 30, 2023
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).
Language: Английский
Citations
606
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(10)
Published: Sept. 11, 2023
Abstract This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes processes that determine global ocean carbon sink, its trends variability over period 1985–2018, using a combination of models observation‐based products. The mean sea‐air CO 2 flux from 1985 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr −1 based on an ensemble reconstructions history sea surface pCO (pCO products). Models indicate dominant component this net oceanic uptake anthropogenic , which estimated at −2.1 0.3 by biogeochemical models, −2.4 0.1 two circulation inverse models. also degasses about 0.65 terrestrially derived but process not fully resolved any used here. From 2001 2018, products reconstruct trend in sink −0.61 0.12 decade while diagnose ‐driven −0.34 0.06 −0.41 0.03 respectively. implies climate‐forced acceleration recent decades, there are still large uncertainties magnitude cause trend. interannual decadal mainly driven climate variability, with climate‐driven exceeding ‐forced 2–3 times. These results suggest dominates potentially highly uncertain consistently captured across different methods.
Language: Английский
Citations
66
Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(4), P. 2047 - 2072
Published: April 30, 2024
Abstract. The Global Ocean Data Analysis Project (GLODAP) is a synthesis effort providing regular compilations of surface to bottom ocean biogeochemical bottle data, with an emphasis on seawater inorganic carbon chemistry and related variables determined through chemical analysis samples. GLODAPv2.2023 update the previous version, GLODAPv2.2022 (Lauvset et al., 2022). major changes are as follows: data from 23 new cruises were added. In addition, number made included in GLODAPv2.2022. includes measurements more than 1.4 million water samples global oceans collected 1108 cruises. for now 13 GLODAP core (salinity, oxygen, nitrate, silicate, phosphate, dissolved carbon, total alkalinity, pH, chlorofluorocarbon-11 (CFC-11), CFC-12, CFC-113, CCl4, SF6) have undergone extensive quality control focus systematic evaluation bias. available two formats: (i) submitted by originator but converted World Circulation Experiment (WOCE) exchange format (ii) merged product adjustments applied minimize For present annual update, derived comparing those 1085 quality-controlled using crossover analysis. SF6 all evaluated comparison CFC-12 measured same nutrients dioxide (CO2), comparisons estimates based empirical algorithms provided additional context adjustment decisions. that we intended remove potential biases errors measurement, calibration, data-handling practices without removing known or likely time trends variations evaluated. compiled adjusted believed be consistent better 0.005 salinity, 1 % 2 4 µmol kg−1 0.01–0.02 pH (depending region), 5 halogenated transient tracers. other compilation, such isotopic tracers discrete CO2 fugacity (fCO2), not subjected bias adjustments. original their documentation, DOI codes at Carbon Acidification System NOAA National Centers Environmental Information (NCEI), which also provides access product. This single file four regional ones – Arctic, Atlantic, Indian, Pacific under https://doi.org/10.25921/zyrq-ht66 2023). These bias-adjusted files include significant ancillary approximated obtained interpolation of, calculation from, data. living documents methods broad overview secondary procedures results.
Language: Английский
Citations
17
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(9)
Published: Aug. 24, 2023
Abstract The seasonal cycle is the dominant mode of variability in air‐sea CO 2 flux most regions global ocean, yet discrepancies between different seasonality estimates are rather large. As part Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes Phase project (RECCAP2), we synthesize surface ocean p from models observation‐based estimates, focusing on both a present‐day climatology decadal changes 1980s 2010s. Four main findings emerge: First, biogeochemistry (GOBMs) ( products) disagree amplitude phase, primarily due to DIC. Second, has increased over last three decades products GOBMs. Third, increases amplitudes subtropical biomes for GOBMs driven by increasing DIC concentrations stemming uptake anthropogenic (C ant ). In subpolar Southern Ocean biomes, however, change dominated C invasion, whereas an indeterminate combination invasion climate modulates changes. Fourth, biome‐aggregated largely detectable against mapping uncertainty (reducible) natural (irreducible), but not at gridpoint scale much northern oceans Ocean, underscoring importance sustained high‐quality seasonally resolved measurements these regions.
Language: Английский
Citations
32
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(3)
Published: March 1, 2024
Abstract The ocean is a major carbon sink and takes up 25%–30% of the anthropogenically emitted CO 2 . A state‐of‐the‐art method to quantify this are global biogeochemistry models (GOBMs), but their simulated uptake differs between systematically lower than estimates based on statistical methods using surface p interior measurements. Here, we provide an in‐depth evaluation from 1980 2018 GOBM ensemble. As sources inter‐model differences ensemble‐mean biases our study identifies (a) model setup, such as length spin‐up, starting date simulation, fluxes rivers into sediments, (b) circulation, Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Southern Ocean mode intermediate water formation, (c) oceanic buffer capacity. Our analysis suggests that late in circulation cause too low anthropogenic across Surface might also be low, current setup prevents robust assessment. For simulations sink, recommend short‐term start at common before industrialization associated atmospheric increase, conduct sufficiently long spin‐up GOBMs reach steady‐state, key metrics for biogeochemistry, land‐ocean interface. In long‐term, improving representation these GOBMs.
Language: Английский
Citations
15
Elementa Science of the Anthropocene, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(1)
Published: Jan. 1, 2024
The air–sea exchange and oceanic cycling of greenhouse gases (GHG), including carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrous oxide (N2O), methane (CH4), monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2), are fundamental in controlling the evolution Earth’s atmospheric chemistry climate. Significant advances have been made over last 10 years understanding, instrumentation methods, as well deciphering production consumption pathways GHG upper ocean (including surface subsurface down to approximately 1000 m). global under current conditions is now established a major sink for CO2, source N2O minor both CH4 CO. importance or NOx largely unknown so far. There still considerable uncertainties about processes their drivers distributions N2O, CH4, CO, ocean. Without having understanding pathways, our knowledge effects ongoing changes—warming, acidification, deoxygenation, eutrophication—on remains rudimentary at best. We suggest that only through comprehensive, coordinated, interdisciplinary approach includes data collection by observation networks joint process studies can necessary be generated (1) identify relevant microbial phytoplankton communities, (2) quantify rates (3) comprehend drivers, (4) decipher economic cultural implications mitigation solutions.
Language: Английский
Citations
14
Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 38(4)
Published: April 1, 2024
Abstract As part of the second phase Regional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes project (RECCAP2), we present an assessment carbon cycle Atlantic Ocean, including Mediterranean Sea, between 1985 2018 using global ocean biogeochemical models (GOBMs) estimates based on surface dioxide (CO 2 ) partial pressure (pCO products) interior dissolved inorganic observations. Estimates basin‐wide long‐term mean net annual CO uptake GOBMs pCO products are in reasonable agreement (−0.47 ± 0.15 PgC yr −1 −0.36 0.06 , respectively), with higher GOBM‐based likely being a consequence deficit representation natural outgassing land derived carbon. In GOBMs, increases time at rates close to what one would expect from atmospheric increase, but estimate rate twice as fast. The largest disagreement flux is found north 50°N, coinciding seasonal interannual variability. accumulation anthropogenic (C ant over 1994–2007 Ocean 0.52 0.11 according 28% 20% lower than that Around 70% this C taken up atmosphere, while remainder imported Southern through lateral transport.
Language: Английский
Citations
14
Deep Sea Research Part II Topical Studies in Oceanography, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 220, P. 105459 - 105459
Published: Jan. 17, 2025
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 965 - 1039
Published: March 14, 2025
Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize datasets methodologies quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC) data bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The net uptake by ocean (SOCEAN, called sink) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products (fCO2 fugacity CO2). land (SLAND, dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence sinks provided atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system sum all sources results imbalance (BIM), measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2023, EFOS increased 1.3 % relative 2022, fossil at 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (10.3 when carbonation sink not included), ELUC was 1.0 0.7 yr−1, for total emission (including 11.1 0.9 (40.6 3.2 GtCO2 yr−1). Also, GATM 5.9 0.2 (2.79 0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.9 0.4 SLAND 2.3 near-zero BIM (−0.02 averaged over 2023 reached 419.31 ppm. Preliminary 2024 suggest an increase +0.8 (−0.2 1.7 %) globally 2.87 ppm, reaching 422.45 52 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2023, overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) low agreement between different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy sink. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2024 (Friedlingstein et al., 2024).
Language: Английский
Citations
1
Oceanography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Jan. 1, 2023
The chemistry of the global ocean is rapidly changing due to uptake anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2). This process, commonly referred as acidification (OA), negatively impacting many marine species and ecosystems. In this study, we combine observations in surface collected by NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory Atlantic Oceanographic Meteorological scientists their national international colleagues over past four decades, along with model outputs, provide a high-resolution, regionally varying view fugacity, carbonate ion content, total hydrogen pH on scale, aragonite calcite saturation states selected time intervals from 1961 2020. We discuss major roles played air-sea CO2 uptake, warming, local upwelling processes, declining buffer capacity controlling spatial temporal variability these parameters. These changes are occurring regions that would normally be considered OA refugia, thus threatening protection for stocks sensitive increasing potential expanding biological impacts.
Language: Английский
Citations
18