Extreme weather impacts of climate change: an attribution perspective

Environmental Research Climate, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 1(1), P. 012001 - 012001

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Extreme event attribution aims to elucidate the link between global climate change, extreme weather events, and harms experienced on ground by people, property, nature. It therefore allows disentangling of different drivers from human-induced change hence provides valuable information adapt assess loss damage. However, providing such assessments systematically is currently out reach. This due limitations in science, including capacity for studying types as well geographical heterogeneity both impact data availability. Here, we review current knowledge influences five hazards (extreme temperatures, heavy rainfall, drought, wildfire, tropical cyclones), impacts recent events each type, thus degree which various are attributable change. For instance, heat extremes have increased likelihood intensity worldwide with tens thousands deaths directly attributable. likely a significant underestimate limited availability lower- middle-income countries. Meanwhile, cyclone rainfall storm surge height individual across all basins. In North Atlantic basin, amplified that, combined, caused half trillion USD damages. At same time, severe droughts many parts world not To advance our understanding present-day developments several levels required. These include improving recording around world, coverage studies regions, using explore contributions non-climate impacts.

Language: Английский

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Understanding, modeling and predicting weather and climate extremes: Challenges and opportunities

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 18, P. 65 - 74

Published: Nov. 4, 2017

Weather and climate extremes are identified as major areas necessitating further progress in research have thus been selected one of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Grand Challenges. Here, we provide an overview current challenges opportunities for scientific cross-community collaboration on topic understanding, modeling predicting extreme events based expert workshop organized part implementation WCRP Challenge Extremes. In general, development event depends a favorable initial state, presence large-scale drivers, positive local feedbacks, well stochastic processes. We, therefore, elaborate related to drivers local-to-regional feedback processes leading events. A better understanding will improve prediction support process-based evaluation representation weather model simulations. Further, discuss how address these by focusing short-duration (less than three days) long-duration (weeks months) events, their underlying mechanisms approaches prediction.

Language: Английский

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Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information

Proceedings of the Royal Society A Mathematical Physical and Engineering Sciences, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 475(2225), P. 20190013 - 20190013

Published: May 1, 2019

Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects climate change, but ineffective when it comes change related atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet, circulation strongly mediates impacts at regional scale. In this way, framework, focuses avoiding type 1 errors (false alarms), raises prospect committing 2 (missed warnings). This ethical implications. At scale, however, where information be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability exposure-most uncertain-the societally relevant question not 'What happen?' rather impact particular actions under an uncertain change?' reframing can cut Gordian knot information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic aleatoric uncertainties-something that generally done in projections. It argued storyline change-the identification physically self-consistent, plausible pathways-has potential accomplish precisely this.

Language: Английский

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Detection of continental-scale intensification of hourly rainfall extremes

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 8(9), P. 803 - 807

Published: July 25, 2018

Language: Английский

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What precipitation is extreme?

Science, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 360(6393), P. 1072 - 1073

Published: June 7, 2018

How extreme precipitation is defined affects the conclusions drawn about way it changes with warming

Language: Английский

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The response of precipitation characteristics to global warming from climate projections

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. 73 - 89

Published: Feb. 6, 2019

Abstract. We revisit the issue of response precipitation characteristics to global warming based on analyses and regional climate model projections for 21st century. The prevailing we identify can be summarized as follows: increase in intensity events extremes, with occurrence “unprecedented” magnitude, i.e., a magnitude not found present-day climate; decrease number light wet spell lengths; dry days lengths. This response, which is mostly consistent across models analyzed, tied difference between responding increases local humidity conditions circulations, especially heavy extreme events, mean slower evaporation. These changes hydroclimatic have multiple important impacts Earth's hydrologic cycle variety sectors. As examples investigate effects potential stress due interannual variability, predictability events. also how understanding provide insights into fundamental behavior processes, most noticeably tropical convection.

Language: Английский

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Genesis, goals and achievements of Long-Term Ecological Research at the global scale: A critical review of ILTER and future directions

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 626, P. 1439 - 1462

Published: Feb. 19, 2018

Since its founding in 1993 the International Long-term Ecological Research Network (ILTER) has gone through pronounced development phases. The current network comprises 44 active member LTER networks representing 700 Sites and ~80 LTSER Platforms across all continents, fields of ecosystem, critical zone socio-ecological research. challenges most important achievements initial phase have now become state-of-the-art networking for excellent science. At same time increasing integration, accelerating technology, resources a strong pull more socially relevant scientific information been modifying mission goals ILTER. This article provides review ILTER's mission, goals, impacts. Major characteristics, tools, services, partnerships selected examples relative strengths advancing ILTER are presented. We elaborate on tradeoffs between needs community stakeholder expectations. embedding an increasingly collaborative landscape global environmental observation ecological research infrastructures is also reflected by developments pioneering regional national such as SAEON South Africa, CERN/CEOBEX China, TERN Australia or eLTER RI Europe. primary role currently seen mechanism to investigate ecosystem structure, function, services response wide range forcings using long-term, place-based suggest four main activities advancements next decade development/delivery a: (1) Global multi-disciplinary researchers institutes; (2) Strategic framework research; (3) Infrastructure (GRI); (4) knowledge factory societally sustainable use natural resources.

Language: Английский

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Increasing precipitation variability on daily-to-multiyear time scales in a warmer world

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 7(31)

Published: July 30, 2021

Rainfall will become more variable from day to and year in global wet regions under future warming.

Language: Английский

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Changes in Annual Extremes of Daily Temperature and Precipitation in CMIP6 Models

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 34(9), P. 3441 - 3460

Published: Dec. 1, 2020

This study presents an analysis of daily temperature and precipitation extremes with return periods ranging from 2 to 50 years in phase 6 the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) multimodel ensemble simulations. Judged by similarity reanalyses, new-generation models simulate present-day reasonably well. In line previous CMIP simulations, new simulations continue project a large-scale picture more frequent intense hot vanishing cold under continued global warming. Changes outpace changes annual mean surface air (GSAT) over most landmasses, while follow GSAT globally at roughly Clausius–Clapeyron rate ~7% °C−1. normalized respect do not depend strongly on choice forcing scenario or model climate sensitivity, vary time, but notable regional variations. Over majority land regions, projected intensity increases relative frequency tend be larger for extreme events than weaker events. To obtain robust estimates these local scales, large initial-condition are needed. Appropriate spatial pooling data neighboring grid cells within individual can, some extent, reduce needed size.

Language: Английский

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Climate Adaptation as a Control Problem: Review and Perspectives on Dynamic Water Resources Planning Under Uncertainty

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 56(2)

Published: Jan. 7, 2020

Climate change introduces substantial uncertainty to water resources planning and raises the key question: when, or under what conditions, should adaptation occur? A number of recent studies aim identify policies mapping future observations actions—in other words, framing climate as an optimal control problem. This paper uses paradigm review classify dynamic according their approaches characterization, policy structure, solution methods. We propose a set research gaps opportunities in this area centered on challenge characterizing uncertainty, which prevents unambiguous application methods These include exogenous forcing, model parameters propagated through chain hydrologic models; endogenous human-environmental system dynamics across multiple scales; sampling due finite length historical projections. Recognizing these challenges, several exist improve use for adaptation, namely, how problem context understanding processes might assist with quantification experimental design, out-of-sample validation robustness optimized policies, monitoring data assimilation, including trend detection, Bayesian inference, indicator variable selection. conclude summary recommendations lens control.

Language: Английский

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