Future Climate Change Hotspots Under Different 21st Century Warming Scenarios DOI Creative Commons
Xuewei Fan, Chiyuan Miao, Qingyun Duan

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 9(6)

Published: May 14, 2021

Abstract Identifying climate change hotspot regions is critical for planning effective mitigation and adaptation activities. We use standard Euclidean distance (SED) to calculate integrated changes in precipitation temperature means, interannual variability, extremes between different future warming levels a baseline period (1995–2014) using the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) model ensemble. find consistent hotspots Amazon, central western Africa, Indonesia Tibetan Plateau at of 1.5°C, 2°C, 3°C all scenarios explored; Arctic, Central America southern Africa emerge as 4°C end 21st century under two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways scenarios, SSP3‐7.0 SSP5‐8.5. CMIP6 models show higher SED values than CMIP5, suggesting stronger aggregated effects new scenarios. Hotspot time emergence (TOE) further investigated; TOE defined year when signal first exceeds noise natural variability projections. The results indicate that TOEs would occur over primary hotspots, with earliest occurring Arctic Indonesia. For precipitation, before 2100 America. Results geographical detector patterns are shaped by extreme hot dry occurrences low‐to‐medium warming, while means dominant influences high emission scenario levels.

Language: Английский

Global predictions of primary soil salinization under changing climate in the 21st century DOI Creative Commons
Amirhossein Hassani, Adisa Azapagic, Nima Shokri

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Nov. 18, 2021

Soil salinization has become one of the major environmental and socioeconomic issues globally this is expected to be exacerbated further with projected climatic change. Determining how climate change influences dynamics naturally-occurring soil scarcely been addressed due highly complex processes influencing salinization. This paper sets out address long-standing challenge by developing data-driven models capable predicting primary (naturally-occurring) salinity its variations in world's drylands up year 2100 under changing climate. Analysis future predictions made here identifies dryland areas South America, southern western Australia, Mexico, southwest United States, Africa as hotspots. Conversely, we project a decrease northwest Horn Africa, Eastern Europe, Turkmenistan, west Kazakhstan response over same period. Excess salt accumulation root zone causes health, biodiversity food security. Authors used machine learning algorithms predict global scale 21st century.

Language: Английский

Citations

491
Climate Change and Weather Extremes in the Eastern Mediterranean and Middle East DOI
George Zittis,

M. Almazroui,

Pinhas Alpert

et al.

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(3)

Published: June 28, 2022

Abstract Observation‐based and modeling studies have identified the Eastern Mediterranean Middle East (EMME) region as a prominent climate change hotspot. While several initiatives addressed impacts of in parts EMME, here we present an updated assessment, covering wide range timescales, phenomena future pathways. Our assessment is based on revised analysis recent observations projections extensive overview scientific literature causes effects regional change. Greenhouse gas emissions EMME are growing rapidly, surpassing those European Union, hence contributing significantly to Over past half‐century especially during decades, has warmed faster than other inhabited regions. At same time, changes hydrological cycle become evident. The observed temperature increase about 0.45°C per decade projected continue, although strong global greenhouse emission reductions could moderate this trend. In addition mean conditions, call attention extreme weather events with potentially disruptive societal impacts. These include strongly increasing severity duration heatwaves, droughts dust storms, well torrential rain that can trigger flash floods. review complemented by discussion atmospheric pollution land‐use region, including urbanization, desertification forest fires. Finally, identify sectors may be critically affected formulate adaptation research recommendations toward greater resilience

Language: Английский

Citations

352
The first multi-model ensemble of regional climate simulations at kilometer-scale resolution part 2: historical and future simulations of precipitation DOI
Emanuela Pichelli, Erika Coppola, Stefan Sobolowski

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 56(11-12), P. 3581 - 3602

Published: Feb. 1, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

195
Changes in precipitation extremes in the Yangtze River Basin during 1960–2019 and the association with global warming, ENSO, and local effects DOI
Xin Li, Ke Zhang,

Pengrui Gu

et al.

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 760, P. 144244 - 144244

Published: Dec. 10, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

190
Projected future changes in rainfall in Southeast Asia based on CORDEX–SEA multi-model simulations DOI Creative Commons
Fredolin Tangang, Jing Xiang Chung, Liew Juneng

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 55(5-6), P. 1247 - 1267

Published: June 9, 2020

Abstract This paper examines the projected changes in rainfall Southeast Asia (SEA) twenty-first century based on multi-model simulations of Regional Climate Downscaling/Coordinated Downscaling Experiment–Southeast (SEACLID/CORDEX–SEA). A total 11 General Circulation Models (GCMs) have been downscaled using 7 (RCMs) to a resolution 25 km × over SEA domain (89.5° E–146.5° E, 14.8° S–27.0° N) for two different representative concentration pathways (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The 1976–2005 period is considered as historical evaluating seasonal precipitation December–January–February (DJF) June–July–August (JJA) future periods early (2011–2040), mid (2041–2070) late (2071–2099). ensemble mean shows good reproduction climatological spatial pattern with systematic wet biases, which originated largely from RegCM4 model. Increases (10–20%) are throughout Indochina eastern Philippines during DJF while drying tendency prevails Maritime Continent. For JJA, projections both RCPs indicate reductions (10–30%) Continent, particularly Indonesian region by century. However, examination individual member responses prominent inter-model variations, reflecting uncertainty projections.

Language: Английский

Citations

151
Recent progress on the sources of continental precipitation as revealed by moisture transport analysis DOI Creative Commons
Luís Gimeno, M. Vázquez, Jorge Eiras‐Barca

et al.

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 201, P. 103070 - 103070

Published: Dec. 19, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

150
Climate hazard indices projections based on CORDEX-CORE, CMIP5 and CMIP6 ensemble DOI
Erika Coppola, Francesca Raffaele, Filippo Giorgi

et al.

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 2, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

124
Revisiting future extreme precipitation trends in the Mediterranean DOI Creative Commons
George Zittis, Adriana Bruggeman, Jos Lelieveld

et al.

Weather and Climate Extremes, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 34, P. 100380 - 100380

Published: Aug. 26, 2021

Global warming is anticipated to intensify the hydrological cycle. However, this neither expected be globally uniform nor relationship between temperature increase and rainfall intensities linear. The objective of study assess changes in annual extremes, total precipitation, their larger Mediterranean region. We use an up-to-date ensemble 33 regional climate simulations from EURO-CORDEX initiative at 0.11° resolution. analyse significance trends for 1951-2000 2001-2100 under a 'business-as-usual' pathway (RCP8.5). Our future projections indicate strong north/south gradient, with significant, decreasing magnitude daily precipitation extremes south Maghreb region (up -10 mm/decade) less profound, increasing north. Despite contrasting trends, 50-year are projected strongly 100%) throughout 100-year derived traditional extreme value approaches simulations, underestimate these events by 30% drier areas (200-500 mm average rainfall) up 20-30% wetter parts These can occur any time location. contribution wettest day per year (5-30%) reductions mean drier, southern eastern will amplify challenges water resource management.

Language: Английский

Citations

123
Even modest climate change may lead to major transitions in boreal forests DOI
Peter B. Reich, Raimundo Bermúdez, Rebecca Montgomery

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 608(7923), P. 540 - 545

Published: Aug. 10, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

116
Mangrove forests under climate change in a 2°C world DOI
Daniel A. Friess, María Fernanda Adame,

Janine B. Adams

et al.

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(4)

Published: June 7, 2022

Abstract The world's nations are committed to keeping global temperature rises less than 2°C avoid the worst impacts of climate change. Such a target is crucial for mangrove forests, because they located primarily in tropical and subtropical regions that expected see large changes climatic conditions; their intertidal location sensitivity environmental conditions means mangroves be on front line change impacts. We conceptualize what world might look like mangroves, particular potential negative positive responses ecosystem anticipated future atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, temperature, sea level, cyclone activity, storminess frequency, magnitude oscillations. also assess spatial distribution such stressors, relative contributions dynamics, discuss challenges attributing dynamics versus other stressors. knowledge can help future‐proof conservation restoration activities, improve Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change's confidence level ascribed highlight key thresholds beyond which certain. This article categorized under: Climate, Ecology, Conservation > Modeling Species Community Interactions Observed Ecological Changes

Language: Английский

Citations

83