Expansion of Coccidioidomycosis Endemic Regions in the United States in Response to Climate Change DOI Creative Commons
Morgan E. Gorris, Kathleen K. Treseder, Charles S. Zender

et al.

GeoHealth, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 3(10), P. 308 - 327

Published: Aug. 30, 2019

Abstract Coccidioidomycosis (Valley fever) is a fungal disease endemic to the southwestern United States. Across this region, temperature and precipitation influence extent of region number Valley fever cases. Climate projections for western States indicate that temperatures will increase patterns shift, which may alter dynamics. We estimated area potentially using climate niche model derived from contemporary incidence data. then used our with Earth system models assess how areas change during 21st century. By 2100 in high warming scenario, predicts climate‐limited endemicity more than double, affected states 12 17, cases by 50%. The expand north into dry states, including Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota. Precipitation limit spreading farther east along central northern Pacific coast. This first quantitative estimate Our predictive provide guidance public health officials establish surveillance programs design mitigation efforts impacts disease.

Language: Английский

A typology of compound weather and climate events DOI
Jakob Zscheischler, Olivia Martius, Seth Westra

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(7), P. 333 - 347

Published: June 15, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

976
Observed Impacts of Anthropogenic Climate Change on Wildfire in California DOI Creative Commons
Park Williams, John T. Abatzoglou, Alexander Gershunov

et al.

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 7(8), P. 892 - 910

Published: July 15, 2019

Abstract Recent fire seasons have fueled intense speculation regarding the effect of anthropogenic climate change on wildfire in western North America and especially California. During 1972–2018, California experienced a fivefold increase annual burned area, mainly due to more than an eightfold summer forest‐fire extent. Increased area very likely occurred increased atmospheric aridity caused by warming. Since early 1970s, warm‐season days warmed approximately 1.4 °C as part centennial warming trend, significantly increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD). These trends are consistent with simulated models. The response VPD is exponential, meaning that has grown increasingly impactful. Robust interannual relationships between strongly suggest nearly all during 1972–2018 was driven VPD. Climate effects were less evident nonforested lands. In fall, wind events delayed onset winter precipitation dominant promoters wildfire. While these variables did not much over past century, background consequent fuel drying enhancing potential for large fall wildfires. Among many processes important California's diverse regimes, warming‐driven clearest link activity date.

Language: Английский

Citations

865
Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought DOI
Park Williams, Edward R. Cook, Jason E. Smerdon

et al.

Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 368(6488), P. 314 - 318

Published: April 16, 2020

A trend of warming and drying Global has pushed what would have been a moderate drought in southwestern North America into megadrought territory. Williams et al. used combination hydrological modeling tree-ring reconstructions summer soil moisture to show that the period from 2000 2018 was driest 19-year span since late 1500s second 800 CE (see Perspective by Stahle). This appears be just beginning more extreme toward as global continues. Science , this issue p. 314 ; see also 238

Language: Английский

Citations

798
Insights from Earth system model initial-condition large ensembles and future prospects DOI
Clara Deser, Flavio Lehner, Keith B. Rodgers

et al.

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(4), P. 277 - 286

Published: March 30, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

754
Climate change is increasing the likelihood of extreme autumn wildfire conditions across California DOI Creative Commons
Michael Goss, Daniel L. Swain, John T. Abatzoglou

et al.

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 15(9), P. 094016 - 094016

Published: March 30, 2020

Abstract California has experienced devastating autumn wildfires in recent years. These have coincided with extreme fire weather conditions during periods of strong offshore winds coincident unusually dry vegetation enabled by anomalously warm and late onset precipitation. In this study, we quantify observed changes the occurrence magnitude meteorological factors that enable California, use climate model simulations to ascertain whether these are attributable human-caused change. We show state-wide increases temperature (∼1 °C) decreases precipitation (∼30%) over past four decades contributed aggregate indices (+20%). As a result, frequency days (95th percentile) weather—which preferentially associated wildfires—has more than doubled since early 1980s. further find an increase model-estimated probability ∼1950, including long-term trend toward increased same-season co-occurrence northern southern California. Our analyses suggest continued change will amplify number end century, though pathway consistent UN Paris commitments would substantially curb increase. Given acute societal impacts years, our findings critical relevance for ongoing efforts manage wildfire risks other regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

540
Wildfires, Global Climate Change, and Human Health DOI Open Access
Rongbin Xu, Pei Yu, Michael J. Abramson

et al.

New England Journal of Medicine, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 383(22), P. 2173 - 2181

Published: Oct. 9, 2020

Wildfires, Global Climate Change, and Human Health Wildfires are increasingly common projected to worsen with climate change. consequences include burns mental health effects, as wel...

Language: Английский

Citations

463
The polar regions in a 2°C warmer world DOI Creative Commons
Eric Post, Richard B. Alley, Torben R. Christensen

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 5(12)

Published: Dec. 5, 2019

Over the past decade, Arctic has warmed by 0.75°C, far outpacing global average, while Antarctic temperatures have remained comparatively stable. As Earth approaches 2°C warming, and may reach 4°C mean annual 7°C 3°C winter respectively. Expected consequences of increased warming include ongoing loss land sea ice, threats to wildlife traditional human livelihoods, methane emissions, extreme weather at lower latitudes. With low biodiversity, ecosystems be vulnerable state shifts species invasions. Land ice in both regions will contribute substantially level rise, with up 3 m rise possible if certain thresholds are crossed. Mitigation efforts can slow or reduce but without them northern high latitude accelerate next two four decades. International cooperation crucial foreseeing adapting expected changes.

Language: Английский

Citations

413
Responses and impacts of atmospheric rivers to climate change DOI
Ashley E. Payne, Marie‐Estelle Demory, L. Ruby Leung

et al.

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 1(3), P. 143 - 157

Published: March 9, 2020

Language: Английский

Citations

325
California forest die-off linked to multi-year deep soil drying in 2012–2015 drought DOI
Michael L. Goulden, Roger C. Bales

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 12(8), P. 632 - 637

Published: July 1, 2019

Language: Английский

Citations

312
Ubiquity of human-induced changes in climate variability DOI Creative Commons
Keith B. Rodgers, Sun‐Seon Lee, Nan Rosenbloom

et al.

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(4), P. 1393 - 1411

Published: Dec. 9, 2021

Abstract. While climate change mitigation targets necessarily concern maximum mean state changes, understanding impacts and developing adaptation strategies will be largely contingent on how variability responds to increasing anthropogenic perturbations. Thus far Earth system modeling efforts have primarily focused projected changes the sensitivity of specific modes variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation. However, our knowledge forced in overall spectrum higher-order statistics is relatively limited. Here we present a new 100-member large ensemble projections conducted with Community System Model version 2 over 1850–2100 examine internal fluctuations greenhouse warming. Our unprecedented simulations reveal that considered broadly terms probability distribution, amplitude, frequency, phasing, patterns, are ubiquitous span wide range physical ecosystem variables across many spatial temporal scales. Greenhouse warming model alters variance spectra characterized by non-Gaussian distributions, rainfall, primary production, or fire occurrence. results important implications for efforts, resource management, seasonal predictions, assessing potential stressors terrestrial marine ecosystems.

Language: Английский

Citations

311