Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1), P. 253 - 293

Published: March 1, 2021

Abstract. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within Coupled phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range its outcomes by synthesizing results from participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to analysis strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly averages spatial patterns change for surface air temperature precipitation. also compare CMIP6 projections CMIP5 results, especially those scenarios that were designed provide continuity across CMIP phases, at same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well results. precipitation changes end century (2081–2100) encompassing Tier 1 experiments Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5) SSP1-1.9 spans larger compared CMIP5, due higher warming (by close 1.5 ∘C) reached upper 5 %–95 % envelope highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). is both wider radiative new cover sensitivities some models their predecessors. Spatial averaged over have familiar features, an variations confirms model structural be dominant source uncertainty. Models differ with respect size evolution internal variability measured individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These suggest tendency decrease along course this scenario, result will benefit further Benefits mitigation, all else being equal terms societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing developed SSP but which different degrees mitigation been applied. It found mild overshoot few decades around mid-century, represented SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect outcome 2100, return levels gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing possibility, however, other aspects may easily reversible). Central estimates means reach given level might biased inclusion shown faster historical period than observed. Those show reaching ∘C 1850–1900 baseline second half current decade, span between slow fast covering 20 27 years present. 2 early 2039 mean SSP5-8.5 late mid-2060s SSP1-2.6. considered (5 only until mid-2090s.

Language: Английский

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Global urban population exposure to extreme heat

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(41)

Published: Oct. 4, 2021

Increased exposure to extreme heat from both climate change and the urban island effect-total warming-threatens sustainability of rapidly growing settlements worldwide. Extreme is highly unequal severely impacts poor. While previous studies have quantified global heat, lack a globally accurate, fine-resolution temporal analysis crucially limits our ability deploy adaptations. Here, we estimate daily population for 13,115 1983 2016. We harmonize global, (0.05°), temperature maxima relative humidity estimates with geolocated longitudinal data. measure average annual rate increase in (person-days/year-1) at regional, national, municipality levels, separating contribution trajectories growth versus total warming. Using maximum wet bulb globe threshold 30 °C, increased nearly 200% Total warming elevated by 52% compared alone. Exposure 46% settlements, which together 2016 comprised 23% planet's (1.7 billion people). However, how drove spatially heterogeneous. This study reinforces importance employing multiple metrics identify local patterns compare trends across geographies. Our results suggest that research underestimates exposure, highlighting urgency targeted adaptations early warning systems reduce harm exposure.

Language: Английский

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Descriptors for the Evaluation of Electrocatalytic Reactions: d‐Band Theory and Beyond

Advanced Functional Materials, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 32(4)

Published: Oct. 13, 2021

Abstract Closing the carbon‐, hydrogen‐, and nitrogen cycle with renewable electricity holds promises for mitigation of facing environment energy crisis, along continuing prosperity human society. Descriptors bridge gap between physicochemical factors electrocatalysts their boosted activity serve as guiding principles during rational design electrocatalysts. The optimal adsorption strength key intermediates is potentially accessed under tendentious guidelines proposed by indicators, such d‐band center, Δ G H , E O* coordination number (CN), bond length, etc. Here, in this review, a comprehensive summary recent advances achieved regarding descriptors that aims recycling C/H/N‐containing chemicals offered. review initiated providing necessity development efficient then physics behind center introduced. Then progress relating to guidance reviewed. Following that, an extended discussion experimental or theoretical characterization beyond it provided. Finally, perspectives challenges area are

Language: Английский

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A sustainable development pathway for climate action within the UN 2030 Agenda

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 11(8), P. 656 - 664

Published: Aug. 1, 2021

Language: Английский

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Framing, Context, and Methods

Cambridge University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 147 - 286

Published: June 29, 2023

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Language: Английский

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Extreme climate events increase risk of global food insecurity and adaptation needs

Nature Food, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(8), P. 587 - 595

Published: Aug. 9, 2021

Language: Английский

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Accelerating the energy transition to achieve carbon neutrality

Resources Conservation and Recycling, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 177, P. 105957 - 105957

Published: Oct. 14, 2021

Language: Английский

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Population development as a driver of coastal risk: Current trends and future pathways

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Abstract Coastal areas are subject to hazards that can result in severe impacts due the high concentration of people and assets exposed locations. While climate-induced sea-level rise will exacerbate these course 21st century, future dynamics socioeconomic development play an important role driving – as well adaptation responses particular countries with rapid population growth low-lying coastal areas. Here, we synthesize current state knowledge related locations underlying trends affecting at continental global scales. Currently, 2.15 billion live near-coastal zone 898 million low-elevation globally. These numbers could increase 2.9 1.2 billion, respectively, depending on scenario (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]) considered. Nevertheless, although indicate a exposure hazards, they bear limited information about actual do not include vulnerability population. Based insights, stress need account for risk assessments, including vulnerability, additionally exploring potential feedbacks migration decisions. Last, propose action points work inform long-term planning managing risks.

Language: Английский

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Deep mitigation of CO2 and non-CO2 greenhouse gases toward 1.5 °C and 2 °C futures

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Oct. 29, 2021

Stabilizing climate change well below 2 °C and towards 1.5 requires comprehensive mitigation of all greenhouse gases (GHG), including both CO2 non-CO2 GHG emissions. Here we incorporate the latest global emissions data into a state-of-the-art integrated assessment model GCAM examine 90 scenarios pairing different levels abatement pathways. We estimate that when contributions are not fully implemented, timing net-zero must occur about two decades earlier. Conversely, integrates measures in addition to commitment can help achieve stabilization. While decarbonization-driven fuel switching mainly reduces from extraction end use, targeted significantly reduce fluorinated gas industrial processes cooling sectors. Our modeling provides direct insights how system-wide affect for scenarios.

Language: Английский

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Plausible 2005–2050 emissions scenarios project between 2 °C and 3 °C of warming by 2100

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(2), P. 024027 - 024027

Published: Jan. 25, 2022

Abstract Emissions scenarios used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) are central to climate change research and policy. Here, we identify subsets of IPCC’s 5th (AR5) forthcoming 6th (AR6) Assessment Reports, including Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios, that project 2005–2050 fossil-fuel-and-industry (FFI) CO 2 emissions growth rates most consistent with observations from 2005 2020 International Energy Agency (IEA) projections 2050. These between °C 3 warming 2100, a median 2.2 °C. The subset plausible IPCC does not represent all possible trajectories future warming. Collectively, they continued mitigation progress suggest world is presently lower trajectory than often assumed. However, these also indicate still off track limiting 21st-century 1.5 or below

Language: Английский

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