Global Carbon Budget 2021

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 1917 - 2005

Published: April 26, 2022

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize datasets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, land use data bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For first time, an approach shown reconcile our ELUC estimate one national greenhouse gas inventories, supporting collective countries' progress. year 2020, EFOS declined by 5.4 % relative 2019, fossil at 9.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (9.3 when carbonation included), was 0.9 0.7 yr−1, for emission 10.2 0.8 (37.4 2.9 GtCO2). Also, GATM 5.0 0.2 (2.4 0.1 ppm yr−1), SOCEAN 3.0 0.4 SLAND 1 BIM −0.8 yr−1. atmospheric averaged over 2020 reached 412.45 ppm. Preliminary 2021 suggest rebound +4.8 (4.2 %) globally. Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2020, but discrepancies up persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows (1) persistent large uncertainty emissions, (2) low agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living update documents used this new progress cycle compared previous publications dataset (Friedlingstein et al., 2019; Le Quéré 2018b, a, 2016, 2015b, 2014, 2013). presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/gcp-2021 2021).

Language: Английский

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The 2022 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change: health at the mercy of fossil fuels

The Lancet, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 400(10363), P. 1619 - 1654

Published: Oct. 25, 2022

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2023

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Language: Английский

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Global and Regional Trends and Drivers of Fire Under Climate Change

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(3)

Published: April 11, 2022

Abstract Recent wildfire outbreaks around the world have prompted concern that climate change is increasing fire incidence, threatening human livelihood and biodiversity, perpetuating change. Here, we review current understanding of impacts on weather (weather conditions conducive to ignition spread wildfires) consequences for regional activity as mediated by a range other bioclimatic factors (including vegetation biogeography, productivity lightning) ignition, suppression, land use). Through supplemental analyses, present stocktake trends in burned area (BA) during recent decades, examine how relates its drivers. Fire controls annual timing fires most regions also drives inter‐annual variability BA Mediterranean, Pacific US high latitude forests. Increases frequency extremity been globally pervasive due 1979–2019, meaning landscapes are primed burn more frequently. Correspondingly, increases ∼50% or higher seen some extratropical forest ecoregions including high‐latitude forests 2001–2019, though interannual remains large these regions. Nonetheless, can override relationship between weather. For example, savannahs strongly patterns fuel production fragmentation naturally fire‐prone agriculture. Similarly, tropical relate deforestation rates degradation than changing Overall, has reduced 27% past two part decline African savannahs. According models, prevalence already emerged beyond pre‐industrial Mediterranean change, emergence will become increasingly widespread at additional levels warming. Moreover, several major wildfires experienced years, Australian bushfires 2019/2020, occurred amidst were considerably likely Current models incompletely reproduce observed spatial based their existing representations relationships controls, historical vary across models. Advances observation controlling supporting addition optimization processes exerting upwards pressure intensity weather, this escalate with each increment global Improvements better interactions climate, extremes, humans required predict future mitigate against consequences.

Language: Английский

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Widespread phytoplankton blooms triggered by 2019–2020 Australian wildfires

Nature, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 597(7876), P. 370 - 375

Published: Sept. 15, 2021

Language: Английский

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Record-high CO ₂ emissions from boreal fires in 2021

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 379(6635), P. 912 - 917

Published: March 2, 2023

Extreme wildfires are becoming more common and increasingly affecting Earth's climate. Wildfires in boreal forests have attracted much less attention than those tropical forests, although one of the most extensive biomes on Earth experiencing fastest warming. We used a satellite-based atmospheric inversion system to monitor fire emissions forests. rapidly expanding into with emerging warmer drier seasons. Boreal fires, typically accounting for 10% global carbon dioxide emissions, contributed 23% (0.48 billion metric tons carbon) 2021, by far highest fraction since 2000. 2021 was an abnormal year because North American Eurasian synchronously experienced their greatest water deficit. Increasing numbers extreme fires stronger climate-fire feedbacks challenge climate mitigation efforts.

Language: Английский

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Large contribution of biomass burning emissions to ozone throughout the global remote troposphere

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 118(52)

Published: Dec. 20, 2021

Significance Understanding the sources of tropospheric ozone is important for effective air quality management and accurate radiative forcing attribution. Biomass burning emits large quantities precursors to lower atmosphere. This source can drive regional-scale production, but its impact on global poorly constrained. Here, we present unique in situ aircraft observations continental pollution tracers. Ozone enhancements attributable biomass equal or exceed those from urban emissions, a result that not predicted by current chemical transport models. These findings represent potentially major shift understanding atmosphere indicate need model developments improve representation ozone.

Language: Английский

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Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(8), P. 518 - 534

Published: July 25, 2023

Language: Английский

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Increasing frequency and intensity of the most extreme wildfires on Earth

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(8), P. 1420 - 1425

Published: June 24, 2024

Language: Английский

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How Well Do We Understand the Land‐Ocean‐Atmosphere Carbon Cycle?

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(2)

Published: April 8, 2022

Abstract Fossil fuel combustion, land use change and other human activities have increased the atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) abundance by about 50% since beginning of industrial age. The CO growth rates would been much larger if natural sinks in biosphere ocean had not removed over half this anthropogenic . As these emissions grew, uptake response to increases partial pressure (pCO ). On land, gross primary production also increased, but dynamics key aspects cycle varied regionally. Over past three decades, intact tropical humid forests declined, changes are offset across mid‐ high‐latitudes. While there substantial improvements our ability study cycle, measurement modeling gaps still limit understanding processes driving its evolution. Continued ship‐based observations combined with expanded deployments autonomous platforms needed quantify ocean‐atmosphere fluxes interior storage on policy‐relevant spatial temporal scales. There is an urgent need for more comprehensive measurements stocks, Arctic boreal regions, which experiencing rapid change. Here, we review atmosphere, ocean, cycles their interactions, identify emerging capabilities a sustainable, operational framework ensure scientific basis management.

Language: Английский

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