Global Carbon Budget 2023

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Language: Английский

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Trends and variability in the ocean carbon sink

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(2), P. 119 - 134

Published: Jan. 24, 2023

Language: Английский

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Evidence and attribution of the enhanced land carbon sink

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(8), P. 518 - 534

Published: July 25, 2023

Language: Английский

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Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 1675 - 1709

Published: April 17, 2023

Abstract. The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming ocean, land, cryosphere, atmosphere. According to Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this planetary multiple decades human-driven results in unprecedented committed changes system, with adverse impacts for ecosystems human systems. inventory provides a measure imbalance (EEI) allows quantifying how much as well where stored. Here we show that continued accumulate heat, 381±61 ZJ from 1971 2020. This equivalent heating rate (i.e., EEI) 0.48±0.1 W m−2. majority, about 89 %, stored followed 6 % 1 atmosphere, 4 available melting cryosphere. Over most recent period (2006–2020), EEI amounts 0.76±0.2 fundamental global indicator scientific community public can use world doing task bringing anthropogenic change under control. Moreover, highly complementary other established ones like mean surface temperature it represents robust its future commitment. We call an implementation into Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake based best science. study, updated von Schuckmann et al. (2020), underpinned worldwide multidisciplinary collaboration demonstrates critical importance concerted international efforts monitoring community-based recommendations also urgently needed actions enabling continuity, archiving, rescuing, calibrating assure improved long-term capacity observing system. data are publicly available, more details provided Table 4.

Language: Английский

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Tracking CO2 emission reductions from space: A case study at Europe’s largest fossil fuel power plant

Frontiers in Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: Oct. 28, 2022

We quantify CO 2 emissions from Europe’s largest fossil fuel power plant, the Bełchatόw Power Station in Poland, using observations NASA’s Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) and 3 missions on 10 occasions March 2017 to June 2022. The space-based emission estimates reveal changes with a trend that is consistent independent reported hourly generation results both permanent temporary unit shutdowns. OCO-2 OCO-3 agree bottom-up within their respective 1 σ uncertainties for 9 of occasions. Different methods defining background values corresponding are explored order better understand this important potential error contribution. These demonstrate ability existing reductions large facility when adequate coverage revisits available. informative understanding expected capability limitations planned Copernicus Anthropogenic Monitoring (CO2M) other future satellites support monitoring verification resulting climate change mitigation efforts such as Paris Agreement.

Language: Английский

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National CO₂ budgets (2015–2020) inferred from atmospheric CO₂ observations in support of the global stocktake

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(2), P. 963 - 1004

Published: March 7, 2023

Abstract. Accurate accounting of emissions and removals CO2 is critical for the planning verification emission reduction targets in support Paris Agreement. Here, we present a pilot dataset country-specific net carbon exchange (NCE; fossil plus terrestrial ecosystem fluxes) stock changes aimed at informing countries' budgets. These estimates are based on “top-down” NCE outputs from v10 Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO-2) modeling intercomparison project (MIP), wherein an ensemble inverse groups conducted standardized experiments assimilating OCO-2 column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (XCO2) retrievals (ACOS v10), situ measurements or combinations these data. The MIP combined with “bottom-up” fuel lateral fluxes to estimate stocks, which impacted by anthropogenic natural drivers. flux change reported annually (2015–2020) as both global 1∘ × gridded country-level available download Committee Earth Observation Satellites' (CEOS) website: https://doi.org/10.48588/npf6-sw92 (Byrne et al., 2022). Across experiments, obtain increases median stocks 3.29–4.58 Pg yr−1 (0.90–1.25 C yr−1). This result broad across northern extratropics, while tropics generally have losses but considerable regional variability differences between experiments. We discuss state science tracking using top-down methods, including current limitations future developments towards monitoring systems.

Language: Английский

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Ocean biogeochemical modelling

Nature Reviews Methods Primers, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 2(1)

Published: Sept. 22, 2022

Language: Английский

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Magnitude, Trends, and Variability of the Global Ocean Carbon Sink From 1985 to 2018

Global Biogeochemical Cycles, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 37(10)

Published: Sept. 11, 2023

Abstract This contribution to the RECCAP2 (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) assessment analyzes processes that determine global ocean carbon sink, its trends variability over period 1985–2018, using a combination of models observation‐based products. The mean sea‐air CO 2 flux from 1985 2018 is −1.6 ± 0.2 PgC yr −1 based on an ensemble reconstructions history sea surface pCO (pCO products). Models indicate dominant component this net oceanic uptake anthropogenic , which estimated at −2.1 0.3 by biogeochemical models, −2.4 0.1 two circulation inverse models. also degasses about 0.65 terrestrially derived but process not fully resolved any used here. From 2001 2018, products reconstruct trend in sink −0.61 0.12 decade while diagnose ‐driven −0.34 0.06 −0.41 0.03 respectively. implies climate‐forced acceleration recent decades, there are still large uncertainties magnitude cause trend. interannual decadal mainly driven climate variability, with climate‐driven exceeding ‐forced 2–3 times. These results suggest dominates potentially highly uncertain consistently captured across different methods.

Language: Английский

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Evaluating the consistency between OCO-2 and OCO-3 XCO₂ estimates derived from the NASA ACOS version 10 retrieval algorithm

Atmospheric measurement techniques, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 16(12), P. 3173 - 3209

Published: June 27, 2023

Abstract. The version 10 (v10) Atmospheric Carbon Observations from Space (ACOS) Level 2 full-physics (L2FP) retrieval algorithm has been applied to multiyear records of observations NASA's Orbiting Observatory and 3 sensors (OCO-2 OCO-3, respectively) provide estimates the carbon dioxide (CO2) column-averaged dry-air mole fraction (XCO2). In this study, a number improvements ACOS v10 L2FP are described. post-processing quality filtering bias correction XCO2 against multiple truth proxies also discussed. OCO data volumes two for time period August 2019 through February 2022 compared, highlighting differences in spatiotemporal sampling but demonstrating broad agreement between where they overlap space. A evaluation sources both suggest broadly similar error characteristics. Mean OCO-3 relative collocated OCO-2 approximately 0.2 −0.3 ppm land ocean observations, respectively. Comparison Total Column Observing Network (TCCON) measurements shows root mean squared errors (RMSEs) 0.8 0.9 An fields derived atmospheric inversion systems that assimilated only near-surface CO2 i.e., did not assimilate satellite measurements, yielded RMSEs 1.0 1.1 Evaluation uncertainties over small areas, as well biases across land–ocean crossings, indicates behavior characteristics sensors. Taken together, these results demonstrate consistency suggesting may be used together scientific analyses.

Language: Английский

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Decadal Trends in the Oceanic Storage of Anthropogenic Carbon From 1994 to 2014

AGU Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(4)

Published: Aug. 1, 2023

Abstract The oceanic uptake and resulting storage of the anthropogenic CO 2 (C ant ) that humans have emitted into atmosphere moderates climate change. Yet our knowledge about how this has progressed in time remained limited. Here, we determine decadal trends C by applying eMLR(C*) regression method to ocean interior observations collected repeatedly since 1990s. We find global grew from 1994 2004 29 ± 3 Pg dec −1 2014 27 (±1σ). change second decade is 15 11% lower than one would expect first assuming proportional increase with atmospheric . attribute reduction sensitivity a decrease buffer capacity changes circulation. In Atlantic Ocean, maximum rate shifted Northern Southern Hemisphere, plausibly caused weaker formation North Deep Waters an intensified ventilation mode intermediate waters Hemisphere. Our estimates accumulation differ cumulative net air‐sea flux several , suggesting substantial variable, but uncertain loss natural carbon ocean. findings indicate considerable vulnerability sink variability

Language: Английский

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