Unexpectedly large impact of forest management and grazing on global vegetation biomass

Nature, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 553(7686), P. 73 - 76

Published: Dec. 18, 2017

Language: Английский

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Global Carbon Budget 2023

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(12), P. 5301 - 5369

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Abstract. Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, terrestrial biosphere in a changing climate is critical to better understand global cycle, support development policies, project future change. Here we describe synthesize data sets methodology quantify five major components budget uncertainties. Fossil CO2 (EFOS) are based on energy statistics cement production data, while from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, bookkeeping models. Atmospheric concentration measured directly, its growth rate (GATM) computed annual changes concentration. The ocean sink (SOCEAN) estimated with biogeochemistry models observation-based fCO2 products. (SLAND) dynamic vegetation Additional lines evidence land sinks provided by atmospheric inversions, oxygen measurements, Earth system resulting imbalance (BIM), difference between total biosphere, measure imperfect incomplete understanding contemporary cycle. All uncertainties reported as ±1σ. For year 2022, EFOS increased 0.9 % relative 2021, fossil at 9.9±0.5 Gt C yr−1 (10.2±0.5 when carbonation not included), ELUC was 1.2±0.7 yr−1, for emission (including sink) 11.1±0.8 (40.7±3.2 yr−1). Also, GATM 4.6±0.2 (2.18±0.1 ppm yr−1; denotes parts per million), SOCEAN 2.8±0.4 SLAND 3.8±0.8 BIM −0.1 (i.e. sources marginally too low or high). averaged over 2022 reached 417.1±0.1 ppm. Preliminary 2023 suggest an increase +1.1 (0.0 2.1 %) globally reaching 419.3 ppm, 51 above pre-industrial level (around 278 1750). Overall, mean trend consistently period 1959–2022, near-zero overall imbalance, although discrepancies up around 1 persist representation semi-decadal variability fluxes. Comparison estimates multiple approaches observations shows following: (1) persistent large uncertainty estimate emissions, (2) agreement different methods magnitude flux northern extra-tropics, (3) discrepancy strength last decade. This living-data update documents applied this most recent well evolving community presented work available https://doi.org/10.18160/GCP-2023 (Friedlingstein et al., 2023).

Language: Английский

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Perspectives on the Future of Land Surface Models and the Challenges of Representing Complex Terrestrial Systems

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(4)

Published: March 11, 2020

Abstract Land surface models (LSMs) are a vital tool for understanding, projecting, and predicting the dynamics of land its role within Earth system, under global change. Driven by need to address set key questions, LSMs have grown in complexity from simplified representations biophysics encompass broad interrelated processes spanning disciplines biophysics, biogeochemistry, hydrology, ecosystem ecology, community human management, societal impacts. This vast scope complexity, while warranted problems designed solve, has led enormous challenges understanding attributing differences between LSM predictions. Meanwhile, wide range spatial scales that govern heterogeneity, spectrum timescales dynamics, create tractably representing LSMs. We identify three “grand challenges” development use LSMs, based around these issues: managing process parametric across asked changing world. In this review, we discuss progress been made, as well promising directions forward, each challenges.

Language: Английский

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Vegetation structural change since 1981 significantly enhanced the terrestrial carbon sink

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Sept. 18, 2019

Satellite observations show that leaf area index (LAI) has increased globally since 1981, but the impact of this vegetation structural change on global terrestrial carbon cycle not been systematically evaluated. Through process-based diagnostic ecosystem modeling, we find increase in LAI alone was responsible for 12.4% accumulated sink (95 ± 5 Pg C) from 1981 to 2016, whereas other drivers CO2 fertilization, nitrogen deposition, and climate (temperature, radiation, precipitation) contributed 47.0%, 1.1%, -28.6% sink, respectively. The legacy effects past changes these prior are remaining 65.5% 2016. These results refine attribution land various would help constrain prognostic models often have large uncertainties simulating their impacts cycle.

Language: Английский

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C4MIP – The Coupled Climate–Carbon Cycle Model Intercomparison Project: experimental protocol for CMIP6

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 9(8), P. 2853 - 2880

Published: Aug. 25, 2016

Abstract. Coordinated experimental design and implementation has become a cornerstone of global climate modelling. Model Intercomparison Projects (MIPs) enable systematic robust analysis results across many models, by reducing the influence ad hoc differences in model set-up or boundary conditions. As it enters its 6th phase, Coupled Project (CMIP6) grown significantly scope with documentation individual simulations delegated to science communities. The Climate–Carbon Cycle (C4MIP) takes responsibility for design, documentation, carbon cycle feedbacks interactions simulations. These are potentially large play leading-order contribution determining atmospheric composition response human emissions CO2 setting targets stabilize avoid dangerous change. For over decade, C4MIP coordinated coupled climate–carbon simulations, this paper we describe that will be formally part CMIP6. While community created also fit within wider CMIP activity, conform some common standards including diagnostic requests, designed complement core experiments known as Diagnostic, Evaluation Characterization Klima (DECK). three key strands scientific motivation requested satisfy their needs: (1) pre-industrial historical (formally set CMIP6 experiments) evaluation, (2) idealized partially 1 % per year increases diagnosis feedback strength components, (3) future scenario project how Earth system respond anthropogenic activity 21st century beyond. This documents detail these explains rationale planned analysis, describes up run Particular attention is paid conditions, input data, output diagnostics. It important modelling groups participating adhere closely possible design.

Language: Английский

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Gridded National Inventory of U.S. Methane Emissions

Environmental Science & Technology, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 50(23), P. 13123 - 13133

Published: Nov. 16, 2016

We present a gridded inventory of US anthropogenic methane emissions with 0.1° × spatial resolution, monthly temporal and detailed scale-dependent error characterization. The is designed to be consistent the 2016 Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Inventory Greenhouse Gas Emissions Sinks (GHGI) for 2012. EPA available only as national totals different source types. use wide range databases at state, county, local, point level disaggregate allocate distribution individual Results show large differences EDGAR v4.2 global commonly used priori estimate in inversions atmospheric observations. derive grid-dependent statistics types from comparison Defense Fund (EDF) regional Northeast Texas. These are independently verified by California Measurement (CALGEM) grid-resolved emission inventory. Our gridded, time-resolved provides an improved basis inversion observations interpret results terms underlying processes.

Language: Английский

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A global wetland methane emissions and uncertainty dataset for atmospheric chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0)

Geoscientific model development, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 10(6), P. 2141 - 2156

Published: June 6, 2017

Abstract. Wetland emissions remain one of the principal sources uncertainty in global atmospheric methane (CH4) budget, largely due to poorly constrained process controls on CH4 production waterlogged soils. Process-based estimates wetland and their associated uncertainties can provide crucial prior information for model-based top-down emission estimates. Here we construct a model ensemble use chemical transport models (WetCHARTs version 1.0). Our 0.5° × resolution is based satellite-derived surface water extent precipitation reanalyses, nine heterotrophic respiration simulations (eight carbon cycle data-constrained terrestrial analysis) three temperature dependence parameterizations period 2009–2010; an extended subset solely analysis derived 2001–2015. We incorporate mean full ensembles into GEOS-Chem compare against measurements CH4; performance (site-level zonal anomaly residuals) compares favourably published scenarios. find that decomposition rates together account more than 80 % dominant timing, magnitude seasonal variability emissions, although : C significant contributor variations mid-latitude emissions. The combination satellite, provides physically informed structural priori critical fluxes. Specifically, our enhanced error covariance structure, as well means using posterior flux quantitatively constrain biogeochemical

Language: Английский

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Sensitivity of grassland productivity to aridity controlled by stomatal and xylem regulation

Nature Geoscience, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 10(4), P. 284 - 288

Published: March 6, 2017

Language: Английский

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The European Space Agency BIOMASS mission: Measuring forest above-ground biomass from space

Remote Sensing of Environment, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 227, P. 44 - 60

Published: April 9, 2019

Language: Английский

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The global forest above-ground biomass pool for 2010 estimated from high-resolution satellite observations

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 13(8), P. 3927 - 3950

Published: Aug. 11, 2021

Abstract. The terrestrial forest carbon pool is poorly quantified, in particular regions with low inventory capacity. By combining multiple satellite observations of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) backscatter around the year 2010, we generated a global, spatially explicit dataset above-ground live biomass (AGB; dry mass) stored forests spatial resolution 1 ha. Using an extensive database 110 897 AGB measurements from field plots, show that patterns and magnitude are well captured our map exception regional uncertainties high-carbon-stock >250 Mg ha−1, where retrieval was effectively based on single observation. With total global 522 Pg, estimate lower than most estimates published literature (426–571 Pg). Nonetheless, increases knowledge distribution compared to Global Forest Resources Assessment (FRA) by Food Agriculture Organization (FAO) highlights impact country's national capacity accuracy statistics reported FRA. We also reassessed previous remote sensing maps identified major biases data, up 120 % value tropical forests, subtropics temperate zone. Because high level detail overall reliability patterns, likely have significant impacts climate, carbon, socio-economic modelling schemes provides crucial baseline future stock change estimates. available at https://doi.org/10.1594/PANGAEA.894711 (Santoro, 2018).

Language: Английский

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