Global land use changes are four times greater than previously estimated

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: May 11, 2021

Quantifying the dynamics of land use change is critical in tackling global societal challenges such as food security, climate change, and biodiversity loss. Here we analyse at an unprecedented spatial resolution by combining multiple open data streams (remote sensing, reconstructions statistics) to create HIstoric Land Dynamics Assessment + (HILDA +). We estimate that has affected almost a third (32%) area just six decades (1960-2019) and, thus, around four times greater extent than previously estimated from long-term assessments. also identify geographically diverging processes, with afforestation cropland abandonment Global North deforestation agricultural expansion South. Here, show observed phases accelerating (~1960-2005) decelerating (2006-2019) can be explained effects trade on production.

Language: Английский

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A review of trends and drivers of greenhouse gas emissions by sector from 1990 to 2018

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(7), P. 073005 - 073005

Published: March 12, 2021

Abstract Global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions can be traced to five economic sectors: energy, industry, buildings, transport and AFOLU (agriculture, forestry other land uses). In this topical review, we synthesise the literature explain recent trends in global regional each of these sectors. To contextualise our present estimates GHG by sector from 1990 2018, describing major sources growth, stability decline across ten regions. Overall, data emphasise that progress towards reducing has been limited. The prominent pattern is a continuation underlying drivers with few signs emerging limits demand, nor deep shift delivery low zero carbon services We observe moderate decarbonisation energy systems Europe North America, driven fuel switching increasing penetration renewables. By contrast, rapidly industrialising regions, fossil-based have continuously expanded, only very recently slowing down their growth. Strong demand for materials, floor area, travel growth buildings sectors, particularly Eastern Asia, Southern Asia South-East Asia. An expansion agriculture into carbon-dense tropical forest areas increases Latin Africa. Identifying, understanding, tackling most persistent climate-damaging sectors fundamental concern research policy as humanity treads deeper Anthropocene.

Language: Английский

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Disentangling the numbers behind agriculture-driven tropical deforestation

Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 377(6611)

Published: Sept. 8, 2022

Tropical deforestation continues at alarming rates with profound impacts on ecosystems, climate, and livelihoods, prompting renewed commitments to halt its continuation. Although it is well established that agriculture a dominant driver of deforestation, mechanisms remain disputed often lack clear evidence base. We synthesize the best available pantropical provide clarity how drives deforestation. most (90 99%) across tropics 2011 2015 was driven by agriculture, only 45 65% deforested land became productive within few years. Therefore, ending likely requires combining measures create deforestation-free supply chains landscape governance interventions. highlight key remaining gaps including trends, commodity-specific land-use dynamics, data from tropical dry forests Africa.

Language: Английский

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The environmental impacts of palm oil in context

Nature Plants, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 6(12), P. 1418 - 1426

Published: Dec. 7, 2020

Language: Английский

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Reducing tropical deforestation

Science, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 365(6455), P. 756 - 757

Published: Aug. 23, 2019

The interventions required to reduce deforestation differ widely across the tropics

Language: Английский

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High-resolution global map of smallholder and industrial closed-canopy oil palm plantations

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 13(3), P. 1211 - 1231

Published: March 24, 2021

Abstract. Oil seed crops, especially oil palm, are among the most rapidly expanding agricultural land uses, and their expansion is known to cause significant environmental damage. Accordingly, these crops often feature in public policy debates which hampered or biased by a lack of accurate information on impacts. In particular, global crop maps remains concern. Recent advances deep-learning remotely sensed data access make it possible address this gap. We present map closed-canopy palm (Elaeis guineensis) plantations typology (industrial versus smallholder plantations) at scale with unprecedented detail (10 m resolution) for year 2019. The DeepLabv3+ model, convolutional neural network (CNN) semantic segmentation, was trained classify Sentinel-1 Sentinel-2 images onto an cover map. characteristic backscatter response stands ability CNN learn spatial patterns, such as harvest road networks, allowed distinction between industrial globally (overall accuracy =98.52±0.20 %), outperforming existing regional datasets that used conventional machine-learning algorithms. user's accuracy, reflecting commission error, smallholders 88.22 ± 2.73 % 76.56 4.53 %, producer's omission 75.78 3.55 86.92 5.12 respectively. layer reveals found 49 countries, covering mapped area 19.60 Mha; estimate 21.00 0.42 Mha (72.7 27.3 plantations). Southeast Asia ranks main producing region 18.69 0.33 89 plantations. Our analysis confirms variation ratio growers, but also that, from typical development perspective, large areas legally defined resemble industrial-scale plantings. Since our study identified only stands, lower than harvested reported Food Agriculture Organization (FAO), particularly West Africa, due young sparse nonhomogeneous settings, semi-wild An planted can help shape ongoing debate about impacts expansion, if other be same level accuracy. As model regularly rerun new become available, monitor monocultural settings. second half 2019 resolution 10 https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.4473715 (Descals et al., 2021).

Language: Английский

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Doubling of annual forest carbon loss over the tropics during the early twenty-first century

Nature Sustainability, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 5(5), P. 444 - 451

Published: Feb. 28, 2022

Previous estimates of tropical forest carbon loss in the twenty-first century using satellite data typically focus on its magnitude, whereas regional trajectories and associated drivers are rarely reported. Here we used different high-resolution datasets to show a doubling gross worldwide from 0.97 ± 0.16 PgC yr−1 2001–2005 1.99 0.13 2015–2019. This increase conversion is higher than bookkeeping models forced by land-use statistical data, which no trend or slight decline emissions early century. Most (82%) at some stages with large-scale commodity small-scale agriculture activities, particularly Africa Southeast Asia. We find that ~70% former lands converted 2001–2019 remained so 2020, confirming dominant role long-term pan-tropical reductions formerly forested landscapes. The acceleration high rate suggest existing strategies reduce not successful; this failure underscores importance monitoring deforestation trends following new pledges made Glasgow. Using datasets, study analyses removal over tropics during focusing fluxes trends, as well loss, both aspects studied previous work.

Language: Английский

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Slowing deforestation in Indonesia follows declining oil palm expansion and lower oil prices

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. e0266178 - e0266178

Published: March 29, 2022

Much concern about tropical deforestation focuses on oil palm plantations, but their impacts remain poorly quantified. Using nation-wide interpretation of satellite imagery, and sample-based error calibration, we estimated the impact large-scale (industrial) smallholder plantations natural old-growth (“primary”) forests from 2001 to 2019 in Indonesia, world’s largest producer. Over nineteen years, area mapped under doubled, reaching 16.24 Mha (64% industrial; 36% smallholder), more than official estimates 14.72 Mha. The forest declined by 11% (9.79 Mha), including 32% (3.09 Mha) ultimately converted into palm, 29% (2.85 cleared same year. Industrial replaced detected plantings (2.13 vs 0.72 Mha). New peaked 2009 2012 thereafter. Expansion industrial loss were correlated with prices. A price decline 1% was associated a 1.08% decrease new 0.68% loss. Deforestation fell below pre-2004 levels 2017–2019 providing an opportunity focus sustainable management. As has doubled since start COVID-19 pandemic, effective regulation is key minimising future conversion.

Language: Английский

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A pantropical assessment of deforestation caused by industrial mining

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 119(38)

Published: Sept. 12, 2022

Growing demand for minerals continues to drive deforestation worldwide. Tropical forests are particularly vulnerable the environmental impacts of mining and mineral processing. Many local- regional-scale studies document extensive, long-lasting on biodiversity ecosystem services. However, full scope induced by industrial across tropics is yet unknown. Here, we present a biome-wide assessment show where mine expansion has caused most from 2000 2019. We find that 3,264 km2 forest was directly lost due mining, with 80% occurring in only four countries: Indonesia, Brazil, Ghana, Suriname. Additionally, controlling other nonmining determinants deforestation, indirect loss two-thirds investigated countries. Our results illustrate significant unevenly distributed often unmanaged these biodiverse ecosystems. Impact assessments mitigation plans activities must address direct support conservation world’s tropical forests.

Language: Английский

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The Economics of Tropical Deforestation

Annual Review of Economics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 723 - 754

Published: Sept. 13, 2023

Two factors have elevated recent academic and policy interest in tropical deforestation: first, the realization that it is a major contributor to climate change; second, revolution satellite-based measurement has revealed proceeding at rapid rate. We begin by reviewing methodological advances enabled of forest loss fine spatial resolution across globe. then develop simple benchmark model deforestation based on classic models natural resource extraction. Extending this approach incorporate features characterize developing countries—pressure for land use change, significant local global externalities, weak property rights, political economy constraints—provides us with framework fast-growing empirical literature economics tropics. This combination theory empirics provides insights not only into economic drivers impacts but also policies may affect its progression. conclude identifying areas where more work needed important body research.

Language: Английский

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