Anthropogenic amplification of precipitation variability over the past century

Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 385(6707), P. 427 - 432

Published: July 25, 2024

As the climate warms, consequent moistening of atmosphere increases extreme precipitation. Precipitation variability should also increase, producing larger wet-dry swings, but that is yet to be confirmed observationally. Here we show precipitation has already grown globally (over 75% land area) over past century, as a result accumulated anthropogenic warming. The increased seen across daily intraseasonal timescales, with by 1.2% per 10 years globally, and particularly prominent Europe, Australia, eastern North America. Increased driven mainly thermodynamics linked atmospheric moistening, modulated at decadal timescales circulation changes. Amplified poses new challenges for weather predictions, well resilience adaptation societies ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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Hydroclimate volatility on a warming Earth

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 6(1), P. 35 - 50

Published: Jan. 9, 2025

Language: Английский

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Hot Spots and Climate Trends of Meteorological Droughts in Europe–Assessing the Percent of Normal Index in a Single-Model Initial-Condition Large Ensemble

Frontiers in Water, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 3

Published: Sept. 7, 2021

Drought, caused by a prolonged deficit of precipitation, bears the risk severe economic and ecological consequences for affected societies. The occurrence this significant hydro-meteorological hazard is expected to strongly increase in many regions due climate change, however, it also subject high internal variability. This calls an assessment trends hot spots that considers variations In study, percent normal index (PNI), describes meteorological droughts deviation long-term reference mean, analyzed single-model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) Canadian regional model version 5 (CRCM5) over Europe. A far future horizon under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 compared present-day pre-industrial reference, which derived from pi-control runs CRCM5 representing counterfactual world without anthropogenic change. Our analysis SMILE reveals variability drought Considering variability, our results show clear overall duration, number intensity toward horizon. We furthermore find strong seasonal divergence with distinct summer decrease winter most regions. Additionally, percentage followed wet winters increasing all except Iberian Peninsula. Because particularly drying trends, Alps, Mediterranean, France Peninsula are suggested be considered as spots. Due simplicity intuitivity PNI, appropriate region-specific communication purposes outreach.

Language: Английский

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Increasing spatiotemporal proximity of heat and precipitation extremes in a warming world quantified by a large model ensemble

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 17(3), P. 035005 - 035005

Published: Feb. 21, 2022

Abstract Increases in climate hazards and their impacts mark one of the major challenges change. Situations which occur close enough to another result amplified impacts, because systems are insufficiently resilient or themselves made more severe, special concern. We consider projected changes such compounding using Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble under a moderate (RCP4.5) emissions scenario, produces warming about 2.25 °C between pre-industrial (1851–1880) 2100. find that extreme heat events occurring on three consecutive days increase frequency by 100%–300%, precipitation most regions, nearly doubling for some. The chance concurrent drought leading simultaneous maize failures breadbasket regions approximately doubles, while interannual wet-dry oscillations become at least 20% likely across much subtropics. Our results highlight importance taking extremes into account when looking possible tipping points socio-environmental systems.

Language: Английский

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The importance of internal climate variability in climate impact projections

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 119(42)

Published: Oct. 10, 2022

Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty, intermodel and internal variability. Although socioeconomic impact studies increasingly take into account the first two components, little attention has been paid to role of variability, although underestimating this uncertainty may lead costs change. Using large ensembles from seven coupled general circulation models with a total 414 model runs, we partition classic dose-response relating county-level corn yield, mortality, per-capita gross domestic product temperature continental United States. The partitioning depends on time frame projection, model, geographic region. Internal variability represents more than 50% certain projections, including mortality for early 21st century, its relative influence decreases over time. We recommend due many temperature-driven impacts, early-century midcentury regions high such as Upper Midwest States, impacts nonlinear relationships.

Language: Английский

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Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could occur over Europe soon and repeatedly

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(1)

Published: Nov. 30, 2023

Abstract Extreme heat and drought typical of an end-of-century climate could soon occur over Europe, repeatedly. Despite the European being potentially prone to multi-year successive extremes due influence North Atlantic variability, it remains unclear how likelihood changes under warming, early they reach levels, this is affected by internal variability. Using Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble, we find that even moderate levels virtually impossible 20 years ago 1-in-10 likelihoods as 2030s. By 2050–2074, two single or compound extremes, unprecedented date, exceed likelihoods; while Europe-wide 5-year megadroughts become plausible. Whole decades stress start 2040, 2020 for drought, with a warm Atlantic, starting 2030 twice likely.

Language: Английский

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The New Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble With CMIP6 Forcing and High‐Frequency Model Output

Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2023

Abstract Single‐model initial‐condition large ensembles are powerful tools to quantify the forced response, internal climate variability, and their evolution under global warming. Here, we present CMIP6 version of Max Planck Institute Grand Ensemble (MPI‐GE CMIP6) with currently 30 realizations for historical period five emission scenarios. The power MPI‐GE goes beyond its predecessor ensemble by providing high‐frequency output, full range scenarios including highly policy‐relevant low SSP1‐1.9 SSP1‐2.6, opportunity compare complementary high‐resolution simulations. First, describe CMIP6, evaluate it observations reanalyzes MPI‐GE. Then, demonstrate six application examples how use better understand future extremes, inform about uncertainty in approaching Paris Agreement warming limits, combine artificial intelligence. For instance, allows us show that recently observed Siberian Pacific North American heatwaves would only avoid reaching 1–2 years return periods 2071–2100 scenarios, European precipitation extremes captured simulations, 3‐hourly output projects a decreasing activity storms mid‐latitude oceans. Further, is ideal estimates probabilities crossing limits irreducible introduced sufficiently be used infilling surface temperature

Language: Английский

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Climate Gentrification: Valuing Perceived Climate Risks in Property Prices

Annals of the American Association of Geographers, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 113(5), P. 1092 - 1111

Published: Feb. 21, 2023

There is growing evidence that physical climate hazards—such as floods and wildfires—affect property prices. Climate change scenarios suggest more frequent severe hazards in the future, coinciding with greater exposure of populations to such threats. This raises concern because changes prices pose risks homeowners' financial status, well insurance mortgage industries, bank portfolios, thereby systems. We begin a new definition gentrification (CG) captures links between hazards, perceptions risk resilience, capital flows markets. followed by structured assessment key drivers CG, an empirical case study data for flood-prone UK city demonstrate how CG depressed house price growth over period from 2005 2018 up 50 percent flood-exposed (relative unexposed) locations. then provide discussion ethical concerns around research, suggested ways forward. Such signals have potential ramifications long-term stability real estate markets raise policy implications private public sectors. conclude some priorities further research into recognizing information gaps, noting existing knowledge tools could contribute toward improved resilience change. Key Words: gentrification, flood, hedonic model,

Language: Английский

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Internal variability plays a dominant role in global climate projections of temperature and precipitation extremes

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 61(3-4), P. 1931 - 1945

Published: Jan. 25, 2023

Language: Английский

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1.5℃ and 2.0℃ of global warming intensifies the hydrological extremes in China

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 635, P. 131229 - 131229

Published: April 18, 2024

Language: Английский

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