Growing impact of wildfire on western US water supply

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 119(10)

Published: Feb. 22, 2022

Streamflow often increases after fire, but the persistence of this effect and its importance to present future regional water resources are unclear. This paper addresses these knowledge gaps for western United States (WUS), where annual forest fire area increased by more than 1,100% during 1984 2020. Among 72 forested basins across WUS that burned between 2019, multibasin mean streamflow was significantly elevated 0.19 SDs (P < 0.01) an average 6 years postfire, compared range results expected from climate alone. Significance is assessed comparing prefire postfire responses also among 107 control experienced little no wildfire study period. The response scales with extent: 29 >20% in a year, over first 0.38 SDs, or 30%. Postfire were significant all four seasons. Historical fire-climate relationships combined model projections suggest 2021 2050 will see repeated when fire-conducive 2020, year currently holding modern record burned. These findings center on relatively small, minimally managed basins, our areas grow enough next 3 decades enhance at scales. Wildfire emerging driver runoff change increasingly alter impacts supplies runoff-related risks.

Language: Английский

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A global synthesis on the effects of thinning on hydrological processes: Implications for forest management

Forest Ecology and Management, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 519, P. 120324 - 120324

Published: June 6, 2022

Forest thinning can significantly affect hydrological processes. However, these effects largely vary with forest types, climate, intensity, and variables of interest. Understanding their variations support treatments' design selection to ensure desired benefits. In this global-level review paper, we report the first comprehensive meta-analysis on major processes an emphasis rainfall partitioning, soil moisture evapotranspiration The synthesized reviewed studies encompass different biophysical conditions (climate ecosystems), silvicultural systems, time scales (from weeks decades) across continents. results showed a significant increase in net precipitation, tree-level water use after (the effect sizes are 1.19, 1.14 1.56 relative value control, respectively), while decreases stemflow transpiration 0.42 0.6 respectively). Thinning intensity about 50% stand density is determined as threshold at or over which affected. duration be set between 2.6 4.3 (throughfall) 3.1–8.6 years (soil transpiration), asking for repeated order effectively sustain effects. These global averages serve benchmarks assessment comparisons, but depend local treatments. literature rest studied suggests that generally enhance runoff yield groundwater recharge. also have positive limited role efficiency (WUE), it mitigates drought through increasing WUE. Moderate adverse quality prevented by adequate managements prevent degradation. Nevertheless, more researches relatively less regions needed robust analysis variables. management implications suggested discussed within context climate change.

Language: Английский

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Temperature Overshoot Would Have Lasting Impacts on Hydrology and Water Resources

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract Models of climate change impacts could be missing significant risks to hydrologic and water infrastructure systems through a shared feature: the idea that temperatures rise monotonically. By contrast, temperature overshoot pathways describe non‐monotonic warming trajectories, in which global first exceed given target before declining target. Risks from are qualitatively different associated with monotonic likely underestimated current research policy. suggest may almost unavoidable if more stringent Paris Agreement limiting 1.5°C over preindustrial levels is met by 2100. While has been relatively widely described literature, on individual system characteristics have not. We failure consider disparities between hydrology resources presents particular due divergent adaptation needs. Processes decadal hysteresis especially vulnerable. These include glacial contributions streamflow; consequences vegetation change; altered groundwater; higher use for fossil fuel combustion carbon dioxide removal; policy depends conditions. argue cannot fully captured integrated assessment models needs specifically evaluated adequately characterize risk system. how modeling tools adapted evaluate consequences, but also recognize decisions must made even without perfect knowledge.

Language: Английский

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Landscape changes and their hydrologic effects: Interactions and feedbacks across scales

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 212, P. 103466 - 103466

Published: Dec. 8, 2020

Language: Английский

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Effects of land use change on ecosystem services in the China–Mongolia–Russia economic corridor

Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 360, P. 132175 - 132175

Published: May 11, 2022

Language: Английский

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The uncertain role of rising atmospheric CO2 on global plant transpiration

Earth-Science Reviews, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 230, P. 104055 - 104055

Published: May 12, 2022

As CO2 concentration in the atmosphere rises, there is a need for improved physical understanding of its impact on global plant transpiration. This knowledge gap poses major hurdle robustly projecting changes hydrologic cycle. For this reason, here we review different processes by which atmospheric affects transpiration, several uncertainties related to complex physiological and radiative involved, gaps be filled order improve predictions Although high degree certainty that rising will exact nature remains unclear due interactions between climate, key aspects morphology physiology. The interplay these factors has substantial consequences not only future climate vegetation, but also water availability needed sustaining productivity terrestrial ecosystems. Future transpiration response enhanced are expected driven availability, evaporative demand, processes, emergent disturbances increasing temperatures, modification physiology coverage. Considering universal sensitivity natural agricultural systems argue reliable projections an issue highest priority, can achieved integrating monitoring modeling efforts representation effects next generation earth system models.

Language: Английский

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High Resolution SnowModel Simulations Reveal Future Elevation‐Dependent Snow Loss and Earlier, Flashier Surface Water Input for the Upper Colorado River Basin

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(2)

Published: Jan. 17, 2023

Abstract Continued climate warming is reducing seasonal snowpacks in the western United States, where >50% of historical water supplies were snowmelt‐derived. In Upper Colorado River Basin, declining snow equivalent (SWE) and altered surface input (SWI, rainfall snowmelt available to enter soil) timing magnitude affect streamflow generation availability. To adapt effectively future conditions, we need understand current spatiotemporal distributions SWE SWI how they may change decades. We developed 100‐m SnowModel simulations for years 2001–2013 two scenarios: control (CTL) pseudo‐global‐warming (PGW). The PGW fraction precipitation falling as was lower relative CTL, except November–April at high elevations. peak low (−45%) mid elevations (−14%), while date uniformly earlier year all (17–23 days). Currently unmonitored elevation represented a greater total SWE. daily higher (30%–42%), dates peaks centroids under PGW. displayed elevated winter SWI, summer changes spring elevation‐dependent. Although compared more evenly distributed throughout These simulated shifts have broad implications management dry, snow‐dominated regions.

Language: Английский

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Forest canopies as nature‐based solutions to mitigate global change effects on people and nature

Journal of Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 112(11), P. 2451 - 2461

Published: May 24, 2024

Abstract Via sheltering, decoupling and buffering mechanisms, tree canopies have the capacity to mitigate impacts of multiple global‐change drivers on below‐canopy processes organisms in forests. As a result, an important potential as nature‐based solution. The optimal combinations forest canopy structural attributes jointly received little attention date. To help solving this research gap, here we review how modulate effects four drivers—climate warming, drought, air pollution biological invasions—on conditions. Particular is paid mitigating that can be influenced by management, including cover, species composition vertical horizontal structure. Synthesis . We show highly context‐dependent canopy‐based solutions strongly depend environmental context targeted subcanopy organisms. Hence, holistic approaches, which maximize synergies minimize trade‐offs, are needed optimize solution canopies.

Language: Английский

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Forest fire, thinning, and flood in wildland-urban interface: UAV and lidar-based estimate of natural disaster impacts

Landscape Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 39(3)

Published: Feb. 24, 2024

Abstract Context Wildland-urban interface (WUI) areas are facing increased forest fire risks and extreme precipitation events due to climate change, which can lead post-fire flood events. The city of Flagstaff in northern Arizona, USA experienced WUI thinning, fire, record rainfall events, collectively contributed large floods damages the urban neighborhoods infrastructure. Objectives We demonstrate multi-temporal, high resolution image applications from an unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV) terrestrial lidar estimating landscape disturbance impacts within WUI. Changes vegetation bare ground cover WUIs particularly challenging estimate with coarse-resolution satellite images fine-scale processes changes that often result mixed pixels. Methods Using Sentinel-2 images, we document burn severity. 2016 2021 UAV multispectral Structure-from-Motion data, post-thinning canopy cover, patch sizes, height distribution, cover. repeat data a smaller area watershed, quantify geomorphic effects associated subsequent flooding. Results thinning significantly reduced size, tree density, mean resulting substantially active crown future. However, equipment ignited burned at varying severity top watershed drains into city. Moderate-high burns occurred 3 km downtown threatening upstream then 100-year 200–500-year resulted runoff-driven sedimentation Conclusion photogrammetry combined provide detailed accurate estimates impacts, could not be estimated coarser-resolution images. Communities around world may need prepare their for catastrophic fires increase capacity manage sediment-laden stormwater since both weather projected increase.

Language: Английский

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Leveraging a time-series event separation method to disentangle time-varying hydrologic controls on streamflow – application to wildfire-affected catchments

Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 29(1), P. 27 - 43

Published: Jan. 3, 2025

Abstract. Increasing watershed disturbance regimes, such as from wildfire, are a growing concern for natural resource managers. However, the influence of disturbances on event-scale rainfall–runoff patterns has proved challenging to disentangle other hydrologic controls. To better isolate effects, this study evaluates several time-varying controls patterns, including water year type, seasonality, and antecedent precipitation. accomplish this, we developed Rainfall–Runoff Event Detection Identification (RREDI) toolkit, an automated time-series event separation attribution algorithm that overcomes limitations existing techniques. The RREDI toolkit was used generate dataset 5042 events nine western US watersheds. By analyzing large dataset, type season were identified significant whereas moisture pinpointed limited control. Specific effects wildfire runoff response then demonstrated two burned watersheds by first grouping based controls, wet versus dry types. role should be considered in future analysis increasing changing wildfires streamflow. could readily applied investigate patterns.

Language: Английский

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