The burden of infectious diseases throughout and after the COVID‐19 pandemic (2020–2023) and Russo‐Ukrainian war migration

Journal of Medical Virology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 96(5)

Published: May 1, 2024

Understanding how the infectious disease burden was affected throughout COVID-19 pandemic is pivotal to identifying potential hot spots and guiding future mitigation measures. Therefore, our study aimed analyze changes in rate of new cases Poland's most frequent diseases during entire after influx war refugees from Ukraine. We performed a registry-based population-wide Poland 24 2020 2023 compared them prepandemic period (2016-2019). Data were collected publicly archived datasets Epimeld database published by national epidemiological authority institutions. The studied (66.6%) revealed significantly negative correlations with SARS-CoV-2 infections. For majority diseases, it substantially decreased (in case 83%) 2021 (63%), following which mostly rebounded levels and, some cases, exceeded when exceptionally high annual rates scarlet fever, Streptococcus pneumoniae infections, HIV syphilis, gonococcal tick-borne encephalitis noted. Clostridioides difficile enterocolitis two-fold higher than before onward. Legionnaires' also threshold, although this due local outbreak unrelated lifted restrictions or migration refugees. migrants Ukraine could impact epidemiology sexually transmitted diseases. present analysis indicates that continued efforts are needed prevent overwhelming healthcare systems again decreasing control over other It identifies tipping points require additional measures, discussed paper, avoid escalation future.

Language: Английский

---

Effect of urban structure, population density and proximity to contagion on COVID-19 infections during the SARS-CoV-2 Alpha and Omicron waves in Málaga, Spain, March 2020 to December 2021

Eurosurveillance, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 30(3)

Published: Jan. 23, 2025

Background The potential impact of urban structure, as population density and proximity to essential facilities, on spatial variability infectious disease cases remains underexplored. Aim To analyse the variation COVID-19 case intensity in relation distance from facilities (as contagion hubs), by comparing Alpha Omicron wave data representing periods both enacted lifted non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) Málaga. Methods Using point pattern analysis, we examined density, hospitals, health centres, schools, markets, shopping malls, sports centres nursing homes non-parametric estimation relative dependence these covariates. For statistical significance effect size, performed Berman Z 1 tests Areas Under Curves (AUC) for Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves. Results After accounting remained consistent across waves. Although estimations showed fluctuations with Berman’s Z1 were significant only (p < 0.032) when compared complete randomness. AUC ROC curves was above 0.75 ca 0.6 all facilities. Conclusion reflect difficulty assessing facilities’ propagating disease, particularly compact cities. Lack evidence directly linking higher shows need clarify role structure planning shaping distribution epidemics within

Language: Английский

---

Age- and vaccination status-dependent isolation guidelines based on simulation of SARS-CoV-2 Delta cases in Singapore

Communications Medicine, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 5(1)

Published: March 13, 2025

In the absence of effective pharmaceutical interventions early in an infectious disease outbreak, non-pharmaceutical measures, especially isolating infected individuals, critically limit its impact. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic has sparked debates on optimal isolation guidelines. This study proposes a variable period approach (variable-period approach), tailoring durations for distinct population groups with varied viral load dynamics. To compare our variable-period fixed-period strategy, we developed simulation model generating synthetic longitudinal SARS-CoV-2 data. data was generated from dynamics parameterized using Delta patient Singapore, accounting age and vaccination status. Findings show that status significantly influence dynamics, younger linked to shorter shedding durations. framework suggests longer lengths older unvaccinated individuals. By setting leaking risk (risk remaining at end isolation) below 10%, is 14 days, average excess burden 7.4 unnecessary days. contrast, guideline reduces 6.0 periods ranging 9 16 depending group. We confirmed similar results when used reproduction number as alternative risk. this case, variant, analysis demonstrates time spent can be reduced by adopting guidelines based characteristics. patients crucial minimizing impact pandemic. Nevertheless, it themselves. Therefore, should established decrease periods, without relying solely tests. Here, introduce protocol evaluate fixed periods. Our revealed adjusting status, rather than enforcing uniform all patients, reduce necessary 1.4 1.8 days per person average. Customizing according characteristics justified duration redundant isolation, concurrently mitigating further transmission. Ejima et al. computational guidelines, showing while maintaining safety. Tailored minimize mitigate transmission risks.

Language: Английский

---

A risk science perspective on the COVID-19 risk handling

Journal of Risk Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 27(3), P. 337 - 355

Published: March 3, 2024

This paper provides some reflections on the risk handling of COVID-19 pandemic worldwide: What went wrong, and what worked well? On many issues – for example origin coronavirus, societal lockdowns, effectiveness safety vaccines there are still considerable uncertainties discussion. The aims to provide a new perspective handling, by studying such through lens science. stimulates considerations dilemmas authorities faced because about development disease measures meet risks, looking into role science, appropriateness precautionary principle, need establish official narratives, use misinformation/disinformation. main conclusion is that failed in critical ways, which due authorities' failure adequately information convey relevant risks uncertainties.

Language: Английский

---

The evolving epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2

Microbiology Australia, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. NULL - NULL

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Pandemics usually start with a bang following the emergence of new pathogen that is both sufficiently infectious and virulent to pose substantial threat warrant an emergency response. The very fact pandemic involves or substantially changed agent means initial response hampered by limited epidemiological data large amount uncertainty. It was in this context COVID-19 infections spiralled many countries early 2020, overwhelming health systems driving excess mortality. Without reliable it initially unclear who most at risk of, from, infection, transmitting virus others. Over course global research efforts have gradually pieced together complex epidemiology SARS-CoV-2 longer-term sequelae, but there still much work be done. situation also continues evolve as mutates, public responses change, effective treatments become available, population level immunity acquired matures. Although onset explosive undisputed, end rarely dramatic certain. Tracking changing transition from endemic essential remains significant task.

Language: Английский

---

The effects of public health and social measures (PHSM) implemented during the COVID‐19 pandemic: An overview of systematic reviews

Cochrane Evidence Synthesis and Methods, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2(5)

Published: April 29, 2024

Abstract Introduction To systematically review the effectiveness and unintended health socioeconomic consequences of public social measures (PHSM) aimed at reducing scale risk transmission coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19). Methods This followed guidance about overviews reviews in Cochrane handbook for systematic interventions used Epistemonikos database's COVID‐19 Living Overview Evidence repository as a primary search source. Methodological quality was evaluated using Measurement Tool to Assess Systematic Reviews (AMSTAR 2) checklist. Results A total 94 were included, which eight (9%) had “moderate” “high” confidence ratings on AMSTAR 2. Of 16 (17%) reporting applying GRADE framework, none found high certainty evidence any our outcomes interest. Across reviews, most frequently examined PHSM personal protection ( n = 18, 19%). Within multicomponent interventions, so‐called “lockdown” component 39, 41%). The reported outcome category non‐COVID‐19‐related 58, 62%). Only five (5%) outcomes. Findings from with moderate or 2 are narratively summarized. There is low‐certainty that may reduce different settings. For active surveillance response measures, suggests routine testing residents staff long‐term care facilities number infections, hospitalizations, deaths among residents. We very travel‐related control environmental measures. Unintended rarely by those reviews. Conclusion predominantly low‐ regarding controlling transmission. need improve conduct

Language: Английский

---

How to Measure the Controllability of an Infectious Disease?

Physical Review X, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(3)

Published: Sept. 4, 2024

Quantifying how difficult it is to control an emerging infectious disease crucial public health decision-making, providing valuable evidence on if targeted interventions, e.g., quarantine and isolation, can contain spread or when population wide controls, lockdowns, are warranted. The reproduction number R growth rate r universally assumed measure controllability because R=1 r=0 define infections stop growing hence the state of critical stability. Outbreaks with larger R r therefore interpreted as less controllable requiring more stringent interventions. We prove this common interpretation impractical incomplete. identify a positive feedback loop among intrinsically underlying transmission evaluate from interventions disrupt loop. epidemic gain delay margins, which, respectively, much we scale (this scaling known gain) before stability lost, provide rigorous measures controllability. smaller margins necessitate effort. Using these quantify presymptomatic spread, surveillance limitations, variant dynamics, superspreading shape demonstrate that R r only do not alter timings between implemented without delay. Our easily computed, interpreted, reflect complex relationships their implementation, epidemiological dynamics. Published by American Physical Society 2024

Language: Английский

---

Non-pharmaceutical interventions: evaluating challenges and priorities for future health shocks

BMJ, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. e080528 - e080528

Published: Oct. 7, 2024

Non-pharmaceutical interventions implemented during health shocks such as the covid-19 pandemic require rapid, robust, and rigorous evaluation that can generate timely evidence to guide government policy maintain public confidence, say Azeem Majeed colleagues

Language: Английский

---

Impfungen als Schlüssel der Pandemiebewältigung

DMW - Deutsche Medizinische Wochenschrift, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 148(24/25), P. 1557 - 1563

Published: Dec. 1, 2023

Mit der Entwicklung und Bereitstellung hochwirksamer Impfstoffe gegen COVID-19 gelang Wissenschaft Industrie in beispiellos kurzer Zeit entscheidende Durchbruch für die Bewältigung Pandemie. Dieser Beitrag blickt auf Implementierung COVID-19-Impfungen zurück versucht, aus den Erfolgen, Herausforderungen Schwächen Lehren abzuleiten, um zukünftigen Ausbrüchen Pandemien noch effektiver zu begegnen.

---

How to measure the controllability of an infectious disease?

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 10, 2023

Abstract Quantifying how difficult it is to control an emerging infectious disease crucial public health decision-making, providing valuable evidence on if targeted interventions e.g., quarantine and isolation, can contain spread or when population-wide controls lockdowns, are warranted. The reproduction number, R , growth rate, r universally assumed measure controllability because =1 =0 define infections stop growing hence the state of critical stability. Outbreaks with larger therefore interpreted as less controllable requiring more stringent interventions. We prove this common interpretation impractical incomplete. identify a positive feedback loop among intrinsically underlying transmission evaluate from disrupt loop. epidemic gain delay margins, which respectively much we scale (this scaling known gain) before stability lost, provide rigorous measures controllability. smaller margins necessitate effort. Using these quantify presymptomatic spread, surveillance limitations, variant dynamics superspreading shape demonstrate that only do not alter timings between implemented without delay. Our easily computed, reflect complex relationships interventions, their implementation epidemiological dynamics.

Language: Английский

---