Guidelines for the use of spatially varying coefficients in species distribution models

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 33(4)

Published: Feb. 21, 2024

Abstract Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly applied across macroscales using detection‐nondetection data. These typically assume that a single set of regression coefficients can adequately describe species–environment relationships and/or population trends. However, such often show nonlinear spatially varying patterns arise from complex interactions with abiotic and biotic processes operate at different scales. Spatially coefficient (SVC) readily account for variability in the effects environmental covariates. Yet, their use ecology is relatively scarce due to gaps understanding inferential benefits SVC provide compared simpler frameworks. Innovation Here we demonstrate SDMs, particular focus on how this approach be used generate test ecological hypotheses regarding drivers spatial trends relationships. We illustrate SDMs simulations two case studies: one assesses 51 forest bird species eastern United States over decades second evaluates five land cover change grasshopper sparrow ( Ammodramus savannarum ) occurrence continental States. Main conclusions found strong support alternatives both empirical studies. Factors operating fine scales, accounted by SVCs, were primary divers Additionally, SVCs revealed species–habitat grassland cropland area sparrow, providing nuanced insights into future may shape its distribution. applications display utility help reveal factors drive distributions local broad conclude discussing potential conservation.

Language: Английский

---

Ecological scales of effect vary across space and time

Ecography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 2024(8)

Published: June 14, 2024

The spatial scale at which an environmental variable is summarized can have considerable impacts on ecological inference of species distribution and abundance. While several analytical approaches emerged to determine biologically relevant scales – the that most strongly influences patterns observed identifying key drivers effect still underway. Additionally, predicted vary across space time, but little research spatiotemporal has occurred. Here, I assessed temporal variation in 32 North American bird using 18 years empirical data from breeding survey. Scale estimation was then coupled with trait‐based analyses hypotheses testing underlying processes effect. All tested exhibited varied (average annual ranging 0.2 4.97 km) Bird Conservation Regions (BCR), variability being pronounced. Trait‐based revealed a contrary relationship between hand‐wing index, body size, effect, though strength this contingent migratory status. Temporal best explained by changes human development over indicating avian use be increasing footprint. relative population consistent theoretical predictions stemming density‐dependent dynamics, notable These findings contribute growing landscape ecology literature providing evidence for hypothesized By delineating species‐specific elucidating their drivers, study enhances our understanding processes, aiding conservation efforts rapidly changing world.

Language: Английский

---

Maximum temperatures determine the habitat affiliations of North American mammals

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 120(50)

Published: Dec. 4, 2023

Addressing the ongoing biodiversity crisis requires identifying winners and losers of global change. Species are often categorized based on how they respond to habitat loss; for example, species restricted natural environments, those that most occur in anthropogenic habitats, generalists do well both. However, might switch affiliations across time space: an organism may venture into human-modified areas benign regions but retreat thermally buffered forested habitats with high temperatures. Here, we apply community occupancy models a large-scale camera trapping dataset 29 mammal distributed over 2,485 sites continental United States, ask three questions. First, species' responses forest consistent scales? Second, macroclimatic conditions explain spatial variation land use? Third, can traits elucidate which taxa likely show climate-dependent associations? We found all exhibited significant land-use, tending avoid increasingly use forests hotter regions. In hottest regions, was 50% higher compared open whereas coldest trend reversed. Larger larger ranges, herbivores, primary predators were more change their than top predators, consistently affiliated cover. Our findings suggest climatic influence space-use maintaining cover help protect mammals from warming climates.

Language: Английский

---

Spatial Heterogeneity of Habitat Selection of Large Carnivores and Their Ungulate Prey in Proximity to Roads

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT Geographic heterogeneity, encompassing both species‐environment interactions and interspecific relationships, significantly influences the ecological attributes of wildlife habitat selection population distribution. However, impact geographic heterogeneity on distribution target species within predator–prey systems, particularly in human‐dominated landscapes, remains unclear. By conducting line transect surveys, utilizing a monitoring network, applying logistic geographically weighted regression (GWR) conjunction with generalized linear models (GLM), we examined spatial by Amur tiger, leopard, their main ungulate prey, wild boar roe deer, Northeast China. Our results suggest that factors affecting predators are more complex than those for prey. More significantly, coefficients deer certain serve as crucial explanatory variables tiger leopard models. findings emphasize importance non‐stationarity selections, heterogeneous prey may drive dispersals large felids across road landscapes. This study offers new insights into how to help apex cross barriers effectively managing landscape dominated roads, providing valuable guidance future conservation policies.

Language: Английский

---

New York State Climate Impacts Assessment Chapter 05: Ecosystems

Annals of the New York Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Dec. 9, 2024

Abstract The people of New York have long benefited from the state's diversity ecosystems, which range coastal shorelines and wetlands to extensive forests mountaintop alpine habitat, lakes rivers greenspaces in heavily populated urban areas. These ecosystems provide key services such as food, water, forest products, flood prevention, carbon storage, climate moderation, recreational opportunities, other cultural services. This chapter examines how changes climatic conditions across state are affecting different types they provide, considers likely future impacts projected change. emphasizes change is increasing vulnerability existing stressors, habitat fragmentation invasive species, highlights opportunities for Yorkers adapt build resilience.

Language: Английский

---

Modeling Complex Species-Environment Relationships Through Spatially-Varying Coefficient Occupancy Models

Journal of Agricultural Biological and Environmental Statistics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Jan. 18, 2024

Language: Английский

---

Climate, food and humans predict communities of mammals in the United States

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 30(9)

Published: June 27, 2024

Abstract Aim The assembly of species into communities and ecoregions is the result interacting factors that affect plant animal distribution abundance at biogeographic scales. Here, we empirically derive for mammals to test whether human disturbance has become more important than climate habitat resources in structuring communities. Location Conterminous United States. Time Period 2010–2021. Major Taxa Studied Twenty‐five mammals. Methods We analysed data from 25 mammal recorded by camera traps 6645 locations across conterminous States a joint modelling framework estimate relative each species. then used clustering analysis describe 8 broad 16 narrow Results Climate was most predictor overall, while population density agriculture were less important, with mixed effects Seed production forests also predicted abundance, especially hard‐mast tree community maps are similar those plants, an east–west split driven different dominant deer squirrels. Communities vary along gradients temperature east precipitation west. Most fine‐scale boundaries aligned established distinguished presence regional specialists or shifts widespread Maps potential ecosystem services provided these suggest high herbivory Rocky Mountains eastern forests, invertebrate predation subtropical south greater pressure on large vertebrates Main Conclusions Our results highlight importance modern change will have strong impacts new empirical approach recognizing be applied expanded other taxa.

Language: Английский

---

Environmental relationships, decadal changes, and regional decline of Eastern Whip-poor-will ( Antrostomus vociferus ) and Chuck-will’s-widow ( Antrostomus carolinensis )

Avian Conservation and Ecology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 19(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Nightjars are a family of nocturnal and aerial insectivorous birds that have experienced long-term declines driven primarily by loss habitat prey populations. In Illinois, structured survey efforts documented the presence Eastern Whip-poor-will (Antrostomus vociferus) Chuck-will's-widow carolinensis) over 30 years ago, but their current distribution in state is not well known. We deployed autonomous recording units at 142 locations during May–July 2022 to resurvey uniform sampling grid developed Illinois Breeding Bird Atlas 1986–1991 surveys, with objective estimating species within understanding how has changed years. used bird call identification algorithm, BirdNet, detect 4-hour recordings then manually verified detections where were reported. single-season, single-species occupancy models suite remotely sensed, ecological variables identify key drivers relating landcover, forest patch configuration, disturbances. BirdNet was highly accurate detecting reduced time spent annotating recordings. positively associated large core forests proportion pastureland block. Additionally, more likely occupy areas had low moderate disturbance forests. Covariates model explained little variation detection or occupancy. However, examining non-significant trends suggest some similar relationships as Whip-poor-will. Compared populations remained constant while declined although spatial occurrences for both changed. Our results provide updated knowledge distributions our region highlight need further studies particularly case Chuck-will's-widow.

Language: Английский

---

Spatio-temporal variability in the strength, directionality, and relative importance of climate on occupancy and population densities in a philopatric mammal, the American pika (Ochotona princeps)

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: July 25, 2023

Species distribution models (SDMs) have been widely employed to evaluate species–environment relationships. However, when extrapolated over broad spatial scales or through time, these decline in their predictive ability due variation how species respond environment. Many assume relationships remain constant space and hindering accurately forecast distributions. Therefore, there is growing recognition that could be improved by accounting for spatio-temporal nonstationarity – a phenomenon wherein the factors governing ecological processes change time. Here, we investigated American pika ( Ochotona princeps ) with climatic variables Rocky Mountains (USA). We first compared broad-scale differences pika–climate patterns occupancy population density across Southern, Central, Northern Rockies. Next, within-ecoregion four mountain ranges nested within Lastly, tested whether species–climate changed time Central Rockies ecoregion. Across all analyses, found varying levels of among climate metrics both density. Although general congruence temperature metrics, which consistently had negative coefficients, moisture (e.g., relative humidity), positive was greatest summer winter precipitation These results suggest interpretations from one ecoregion should not applied other regions universally especially using metrics. The analysis much greater strength-of-relationship coefficients ranges, inter-regional analysis, possibly attributable smaller sample sizes per range. importance several shifted significant insignificant temporal analysis. Our collectively reveal overall complexity underlying With rapidly shifting conditions globally, this work adds body literature highlighting issues can limit accuracy, transferability, reliability will likely most robust at local regional scales. Diagnosing, describing, incorporating into serve as pivotal step creating more informative models.

Language: Английский

---

Predicting habitat suitability for Townsend's big‐eared bats across California in relation to climate change

Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(12)

Published: Dec. 1, 2022

Abstract Effective management decisions depend on knowledge of species distribution and habitat use. Maps generated from models are important in predicting previously unknown occurrences protected species. However, if populations seasonally dynamic or locally adapted, failing to consider population level differences could lead erroneous determinations occurrence probability ineffective management. The study goal was model the a special concern, Townsend's big‐eared bats ( Corynorhinus townsendii ), California. We incorporate seasonal spatial estimate under current future climate conditions. built using all records statewide roost surveys by subsetting data colonies, representing different phenological stages, Environmental Protection Agency Level III Ecoregions understand how environmental needs vary based these factors. projected species' for 2061–2080 response low high emissions scenarios calculated expected range shifts. estimated differed between combined (full dataset) phenologically explicit models, while ecoregion‐specific were largely congruent with model. Across majority precipitation most variable presence C. roosts. Under scenarios, is contract throughout state, however suitable areas will expand within some ecoregions. Comparison indicates better predict extent known life‐history‐explicit aid understanding their major stages. Differences predictions contractions highlight need regional variation when forecasting responses change. These can directing regions vulnerable

Language: Английский

---