The challenges of containing SARS-CoV-2 via test-trace-and-isolate

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: Jan. 15, 2021

Without a cure, vaccine, or proven long-term immunity against SARS-CoV-2, test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) strategies present promising tool to contain its spread. For any TTI strategy, however, mitigation is challenged by pre- and asymptomatic transmission, TTI-avoiders, undetected spreaders, who strongly contribute hidden infection chains. Here, we studied semi-analytical model identified two tipping points between controlled uncontrolled spread: (1) the behavior-driven reproduction number of chains becomes too large be compensated capabilities, (2) new infections exceeds tracing capacity. Both trigger self-accelerating We investigated how these depend on challenges like limited cooperation, missing contacts, imperfect isolation. Our results suggest that alone insufficient an otherwise unhindered spread implying complementary measures social distancing improved hygiene remain necessary.

Language: Английский

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Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves

PLoS Computational Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. e1009288 - e1009288

Published: Sept. 2, 2021

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological data, we quantified rate (relative progress) at which countries can non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting (accepting high mortality morbidity) reducing case numbers level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate local spreading events. In general, age-dependent roll-out implies transient decrease more than ten years in average age ICU patients deceased. The pace determines speed restrictions; Taking European Union (EU) an example case, all considered allow steadily increasing contacts starting May 2021 relaxing by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact will remain necessary. vaccine uptake prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts long-term success campaigns strongly demographics. addition, highlight need preventive measures reduce contagion school settings throughout year children might be drivers because them Strategies that maintain low numbers, instead ones, infections deaths factors eleven five, respectively. policies with significantly benefit vaccination, overall reduction susceptibility diminish viral spread. Keeping is safest it considerably reduces morbidity better preparedness against emerging escape or contagious virus variants while still allowing higher (freedom) progressing vaccinations.

Language: Английский

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From emergency response to long-term management: the many faces of the endemic state of COVID-19

The Lancet Regional Health - Europe, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 30, P. 100664 - 100664

Published: May 26, 2023

Language: Английский

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Disease spreading modeling and analysis: a survey

Briefings in Bioinformatics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 23(4)

Published: June 12, 2022

Abstract Motivation The control of the diffusion diseases is a critical subject broad research area, which involves both clinical and political aspects. It makes wide use computational tools, such as ordinary differential equations, stochastic simulation frameworks graph theory, interaction data, from molecular to social granularity levels, model ways arise spread. coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) perfect testbench example show how these models may help avoid severe lockdown by suggesting, for instance, best strategies vaccine prioritization. Results Here, we focus on discuss some graph-based epidemiological their significantly improve spreading control. We offer examples related recent COVID-19 pandemic generalize them other diseases.

Language: Английский

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Interplay Between Risk Perception, Behavior, and COVID-19 Spread

Frontiers in Physics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Feb. 15, 2022

Pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have been crucial for controlling COVID-19. They are complemented by voluntary health-protective behavior, building a complex interplay between risk perception, disease spread. We studied how behavior vaccination willingness impact the long-term dynamics. analyzed different levels of mandatory NPIs determine individuals use their leeway actions. If too weak, COVID-19 incidence will surge, implying high morbidity mortality before react; if they strong, one expects rebound wave once restrictions lifted, challenging transition to endemicity. Conversely, moderate give time room adapt level caution, mitigating spread effectively. When with rates, this also offers robust way limit impacts Omicron variant concern. Altogether, our work highlights importance appropriate maximise individual actions in pandemic control.

Language: Английский

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Effects of public-health measures for zeroing out different SARS-CoV-2 variants

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Aug. 29, 2023

Abstract Targeted public health interventions for an emerging epidemic are essential preventing pandemics. During 2020-2022, China invested significant efforts in strict zero-COVID measures to contain outbreaks of varying scales caused by different SARS-CoV-2 variants. Based on a multi-year empirical dataset containing 131 observed from April 2020 May 2022 and simulated scenarios, we ranked the relative intervention effectiveness their reduction instantaneous reproduction number. We found that, overall, social distancing (38% reduction, 95% prediction interval 31-45%), face masks (30%, 17-42%) close contact tracing (28%, 24-31%) were most effective. Contact was crucial during initial phases, while became increasingly prominent as spread persisted. In addition, infections with higher transmissibility shorter latent period posed more challenges these measures. Our findings provide quantitative evidence effects public-health zeroing out contagions contexts.

Language: Английский

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Elimination versus mitigation of SARS-CoV-2 in the presence of effective vaccines

The Lancet Global Health, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 10(1), P. e142 - e147

Published: Nov. 3, 2021

SummaryThere is increasing evidence that elimination strategies have resulted in better outcomes for public health, the economy, and civil liberties than mitigation throughout first year of COVID-19 pandemic. With vaccines offer high protection against severe forms COVID-19, vaccination coverage, policy makers had to reassess trade-offs between different options. The desirability feasibility eliminating SARS-CoV-2 compared with other should also be re-evaluated from perspective fields, including epidemiology, economics. To end pandemic as soon possible—be it through or reaching an acceptable endemic level—several key topics emerged centring around coordination, both locally internationally, vaccine distribution. Without coordination difficult if not impossible sustain elimination, which particularly relevant highly connected regions, such Europe. Regarding vaccination, concerns remain respect equitable distribution, risk emergence new variants concern. Looking forward, crucial overcome dichotomy mitigation, jointly define a long-term objective can accommodate political societal realities.

Language: Английский

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Impact of the Euro 2020 championship on the spread of COVID-19

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 18, 2023

Abstract Large-scale events like the UEFA Euro 2020 football (soccer) championship offer a unique opportunity to quantify impact of gatherings on spread COVID-19, as number and dates matches played by participating countries resembles randomized study. Using Bayesian modeling gender imbalance in COVID-19 data, we attribute 840,000 (95% CI: [0.39M, 1.26M]) cases across 12 championship. The depends non-linearly initial incidence, reproduction R , played. strongest effects are seen Scotland England, where much 10,000 primary per million inhabitants occur from championship-related gatherings. average match-induced increase was 0.46 [0.18, 0.75] match days, but important caused an large +3. Altogether, our results provide quantitative insights that help judge mitigate large-scale pandemic spread.

Language: Английский

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Modeling-based design of adaptive control strategy for the effective preparation of ‘Disease X’

BMC Medical Informatics and Decision Making, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: Feb. 19, 2025

This study aims at exploring a general and adaptive control strategy to confront the rapid evolution of an emerging infectious disease ('Disease X'), drawing lessons from management COVID-19 in China. We employ dynamic model incorporating age structures vaccination statuses, which is calibrated using epidemic data. therefore estimate cumulative infection rate (CIR) during first wave Omicron variant after China relaxed its zero-COVID policy be 82.9% (95% CI: 82.3%, 83.5%), with case fatality (CFR) 0.25% 0.248%, 0.253%). further show that if had been eased January 2022, CIR CFR would have decreased 81.64% 0.205%, respectively, due higher level immunity vaccination. However, we ease circulation Delta June 2021, decrease 74.06% while significantly increase 1.065%. Therefore, face 'Disease X', strategies should guided by multiple factors, 'zero-COVID-like' could feasible effective way for relative low transmissibility. as virus matures into new much transmissibility, particularly when population high immunity.

Language: Английский

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A control theory approach to optimal pandemic mitigation

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(2), P. e0247445 - e0247445

Published: Feb. 19, 2021

In the framework of homogeneous susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) models, we use a control theory approach to identify optimal pandemic mitigation strategies. We derive rather general conditions for reaching herd immunity while minimizing costs incurred by introduction societal measures (such as closing schools, social distancing, lockdowns, etc.), under constraint that infected fraction population does never exceed certain maximum corresponding public health system capacity. Optimality is derived and verified variational numerical methods number model cost functions. The effects immune response decay after recovery are taken into account discussed in terms feasibility strategies based on immunity.

Language: Английский

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