Nature Communications,
Journal Year:
2023,
Volume and Issue:
14(1)
Published: Jan. 18, 2023
Abstract
Large-scale
events
like
the
UEFA
Euro
2020
football
(soccer)
championship
offer
a
unique
opportunity
to
quantify
impact
of
gatherings
on
spread
COVID-19,
as
number
and
dates
matches
played
by
participating
countries
resembles
randomized
study.
Using
Bayesian
modeling
gender
imbalance
in
COVID-19
data,
we
attribute
840,000
(95%
CI:
[0.39M,
1.26M])
cases
across
12
championship.
The
depends
non-linearly
initial
incidence,
reproduction
R
,
played.
strongest
effects
are
seen
Scotland
England,
where
much
10,000
primary
per
million
inhabitants
occur
from
championship-related
gatherings.
average
match-induced
increase
was
0.46
[0.18,
0.75]
match
days,
but
important
caused
an
large
+3.
Altogether,
our
results
provide
quantitative
insights
that
help
judge
mitigate
large-scale
pandemic
spread.
The Lancet Infectious Diseases,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
21(6), P. 793 - 802
Published: March 20, 2021
The
dynamics
of
vaccination
against
SARS-CoV-2
are
complicated
by
age-dependent
factors,
changing
levels
infection,
and
the
relaxation
non-pharmaceutical
interventions
(NPIs)
as
perceived
risk
declines,
necessitating
use
mathematical
models.
Our
aims
were
to
epidemiological
data
from
UK
together
with
estimates
vaccine
efficacy
predict
possible
long-term
under
planned
rollout.
PLoS Computational Biology,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
17(7), P. e1009149 - e1009149
Published: July 26, 2021
The
COVID-19
pandemic
has
created
an
urgent
need
for
models
that
can
project
epidemic
trends,
explore
intervention
scenarios,
and
estimate
resource
needs.
Here
we
describe
the
methodology
of
Covasim
(COVID-19
Agent-based
Simulator),
open-source
model
developed
to
help
address
these
questions.
includes
country-specific
demographic
information
on
age
structure
population
size;
realistic
transmission
networks
in
different
social
layers,
including
households,
schools,
workplaces,
long-term
care
facilities,
communities;
age-specific
disease
outcomes;
intrahost
viral
dynamics,
viral-load-based
transmissibility.
also
supports
extensive
set
interventions,
non-pharmaceutical
such
as
physical
distancing
protective
equipment;
pharmaceutical
vaccination;
testing
symptomatic
asymptomatic
testing,
isolation,
contact
tracing,
quarantine.
These
interventions
incorporate
effects
delays,
loss-to-follow-up,
micro-targeting,
other
factors.
Implemented
pure
Python,
been
designed
with
equal
emphasis
performance,
ease
use,
flexibility:
highly
customized
scenarios
be
run
a
standard
laptop
under
minute.
In
collaboration
local
health
agencies
policymakers,
already
applied
examine
dynamics
inform
policy
decisions
more
than
dozen
countries
Africa,
Asia-Pacific,
Europe,
North
America.
medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory),
Journal Year:
2020,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: May 15, 2020
Abstract
The
COVID-19
pandemic
has
created
an
urgent
need
for
models
that
can
project
epidemic
trends,
explore
intervention
scenarios,
and
estimate
resource
needs.
Here
we
describe
the
methodology
of
Covasim
(COVID-19
Agent-based
Simulator),
open-source
model
developed
to
help
address
these
questions.
includes
country-specific
demographic
information
on
age
structure
population
size;
realistic
transmission
networks
in
different
social
layers,
including
households,
schools,
workplaces,
long-term
care
facilities,
communities;
age-specific
disease
outcomes;
intrahost
viral
dynamics,
viral-load-based
transmissibility.
also
supports
extensive
set
interventions,
non-pharmaceutical
such
as
physical
distancing
protective
equipment;
pharmaceutical
vaccination;
testing
symptomatic
asymptomatic
testing,
isolation,
contact
tracing,
quarantine.
These
interventions
incorporate
effects
delays,
loss-to-follow-up,
micro-targeting,
other
factors.
Implemented
pure
Python,
been
designed
with
equal
emphasis
performance,
ease
use,
flexibility:
highly
customized
scenarios
be
run
a
standard
laptop
under
minute.
In
collaboration
local
health
agencies
policymakers,
already
applied
examine
dynamics
inform
policy
decisions
more
than
dozen
countries
Africa,
Asia-Pacific,
Europe,
North
America.
Nature Communications,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
12(1)
Published: May 20, 2021
Abstract
Initial
COVID-19
containment
in
the
United
States
focused
on
limiting
mobility,
including
school
and
workplace
closures.
However,
these
interventions
have
had
enormous
societal
economic
costs.
Here,
we
demonstrate
feasibility
of
an
alternative
control
strategy,
test-trace-quarantine:
routine
testing
primarily
symptomatic
individuals,
tracing
their
known
contacts,
placing
contacts
quarantine.
We
perform
this
analysis
using
Covasim,
open-source
agent-based
model,
which
has
been
calibrated
to
detailed
demographic,
epidemiological
data
for
Seattle
region
from
January
through
June
2020.
With
current
levels
mask
use
schools
remaining
closed,
find
that
high
but
achievable
are
sufficient
maintain
epidemic
even
under
a
return
full
community
mobility
with
low
vaccine
coverage.
The
easing
restrictions
2020
subsequent
scale-up
programs
September
provided
real-world
validation
our
predictions.
Although
show
test-trace-quarantine
can
both
theory
practice,
its
success
is
contingent
rates,
quarantine
compliance,
relatively
short
delays,
moderate
use.
Thus,
order
transmission
strong
performance
all
aspects
program
required.
PLoS Computational Biology,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
17(9), P. e1009288 - e1009288
Published: Sept. 2, 2021
Mass
vaccination
offers
a
promising
exit
strategy
for
the
COVID-19
pandemic.
However,
as
progresses,
demands
to
lift
restrictions
increase,
despite
most
of
population
remaining
susceptible.
Using
our
age-stratified
SEIRD-ICU
compartmental
model
and
curated
epidemiological
data,
we
quantified
rate
(relative
progress)
at
which
countries
can
non-pharmaceutical
interventions
without
overwhelming
their
healthcare
systems.
We
analyzed
scenarios
ranging
from
immediately
lifting
(accepting
high
mortality
morbidity)
reducing
case
numbers
level
where
test-trace-and-isolate
(TTI)
programs
efficiently
compensate
local
spreading
events.
In
general,
age-dependent
roll-out
implies
transient
decrease
more
than
ten
years
in
average
age
ICU
patients
deceased.
The
pace
determines
speed
restrictions;
Taking
European
Union
(EU)
an
example
case,
all
considered
allow
steadily
increasing
contacts
starting
May
2021
relaxing
by
autumn
2021.
Throughout
summer
2021,
only
mild
contact
will
remain
necessary.
vaccine
uptake
prevent
further
severe
waves.
Across
EU
countries,
seroprevalence
impacts
long-term
success
campaigns
strongly
demographics.
addition,
highlight
need
preventive
measures
reduce
contagion
school
settings
throughout
year
children
might
be
drivers
because
them
Strategies
that
maintain
low
numbers,
instead
ones,
infections
deaths
factors
eleven
five,
respectively.
policies
with
significantly
benefit
vaccination,
overall
reduction
susceptibility
diminish
viral
spread.
Keeping
is
safest
it
considerably
reduces
morbidity
better
preparedness
against
emerging
escape
or
contagious
virus
variants
while
still
allowing
higher
(freedom)
progressing
vaccinations.
Epidemics,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
38, P. 100546 - 100546
Published: Feb. 11, 2022
Mathematical
modelling
and
statistical
inference
provide
a
framework
to
evaluate
different
non-pharmaceutical
pharmaceutical
interventions
for
the
control
of
epidemics
that
has
been
widely
used
during
COVID-19
pandemic.
In
this
paper,
lessons
learned
from
previous
are
highlight
challenges
future
pandemic
control.
We
consider
availability
use
data,
as
well
need
correct
parameterisation
calibration
model
frameworks.
discuss
arise
in
describing
distinguishing
between
interventions,
within
structures,
allowing
both
host
dynamics.
also
health
economic
political
aspects
interventions.
Given
diversity
these
challenges,
broad
variety
interdisciplinary
expertise
is
needed
address
them,
combining
mathematical
knowledge
with
biological
social
insights,
including
economics
communication
skills.
Addressing
requires
strong
cross-disciplinary
collaboration
together
close
scientists
policy
makers.
