Geomorphology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 109661 - 109661
Published: Feb. 1, 2025
Language: Английский
PLOS Climate, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 3(8), P. e0000451 - e0000451
Published: Aug. 5, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
5
Weather, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 79(10), P. 316 - 323
Published: Aug. 7, 2024
Abstract The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) forms an essential component of the global ocean circulation. Paleoclimate records indicate AMOC’s capability to tip between different states that resulted in large climate impacts. Using AMOC box model, re‐calibrated against a circulation HadGEM3, we present new bifurcation analysis and showcase mechanisms may lead from its current ‘on’ state collapsed ‘off’ under change. We find bifurcation‐ noise‐induced tipping remain viable as previous calibrations, while rate‐induced only occurs for specific parameter configurations this model.
Language: Английский
Citations
5
Global and Planetary Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 104568 - 104568
Published: Sept. 1, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
5
Earth System Governance, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 21, P. 100216 - 100216
Published: June 13, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
4
Atmospheric and Climate Sciences, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 15(01), P. 72 - 105
Published: Jan. 1, 2025
In this paper we emphasize statistical links between solar activity and orbital motion with various terrestrial phenomena: temperature, sea levels, ice areas, frequencies of volcanic eruptions, Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). Solar links. The indices are expressed through the averaged sunspot numbers SSN summary curve eigen vectors background magnetic field (SBMF). temperature (GLB dataset), global level, eruption shown from wavelet analysis to have a clear link SBMF index, which has same significant period 21.4 years. snow areas in Northern hemisphere found vary 10.7 years equal usual cycle while Southern hemispheres, no detected. variations total irradiance (TSI) measured abundance 14C isotope during Holocene similar 2200-2300 (Hallstatt's cycle) as inertial (SIM) induced by gravitation large planets, current millennium amount TSI deposited on Earth March-September is ≈1.2% higher than September March hemisphere. ONI revealed two periods 4.5 12 first one lunar perigee second linked Jupiter revolution about Sun whose seems trigger tectonic processes leading eruptions. variation noticeably occurrence underwater eruptions (correlation 25%), which, turn, tidal forces Jupiter, Moon its motion. Joint effects planetary likely govern changes environment defining continuing climate change.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Science Advances, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 11(3)
Published: Jan. 15, 2025
To assess the impact of ongoing, historically unprecedented Arctic ice melting, precisely synchronized chronologies are indispensable for past analogs abrupt climate change. Around 12,900 years before present (B.P.), Atlantic-European realm experienced an relapse to near-glacial conditions attributed meltwater fluxes, Younger Dryas. However, it remained unclear how fast this climatic change propagated southward into Europe as terrestrial and ice-core not sufficiently synchronized. Here, we use a volcanic sulfur spike identified in speleothem from Germany link Laacher See eruption (LSE), key chronostratigraphic marker European archives, previously unidentified sulfate Greenland record. The LSE, dated 13,008 ± 8 B.P. 1950 , thus synchronizes radiometric calendars back time, which consistently demonstrates that LSE predates onset Dryas cooling by about 150 years, both Europe.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Ocean science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 21(1), P. 93 - 112
Published: Jan. 21, 2025
Abstract. Agulhas Leakage transports relatively warm and salty Indian Ocean waters into the Atlantic as such is an important component of global ocean circulation. These are part upper limb meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), variability has been linked to AMOC variability. expected increase under a warming climate due southward shift in Southern Hemisphere westerlies, which could further influence dynamics. This study uses set high-resolution preindustrial control, historical transient simulations with Community Earth System Model (CESM) nominal horizontal resolution 0.1° for sea ice 0.25° atmosphere land. At these resolutions, model represents necessary scales investigate transport its relation AMOC. The simulated 19.7 ± 3 Sv lies well within observed range 21.3 4.7 Sv. A positive correlation between Current shown, meaning that leads Leakage. impacts strength through Rossby wave dynamics alter cross-basin geostrophic balance time lag 2–3 years. Furthermore, salt associated influences salt–advection feedback by reducing AMOC's freshwater at 34° S. indeed increases strengthened southward-shifting winds. In contrast, decreases decrease Indonesian Throughflow wind-driven subtropical gyre. accompanied higher Ocean, play role stability via feedback.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(2)
Published: Jan. 24, 2025
Abstract Using an idealized model of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), we test whether changes in statistical properties AMOC time series can reveal Critical Slowing Down (CSD) and serve as early warnings upcoming critical transition. We calculate CSD indicators for simulations across varying parameter regimes, investigating system's steady‐state dynamical structure its evolution under gradual climate forcing. find that modeled features bistability relatively weak gyre salinity exchange, but no when gyres are sufficiently strong. However, consistently warn a collapse strength space, even bifurcations occur, thus raising false alarms. argue should be applied cautiously systems where physical response to forcing not fully known (such AMOC), specifically it is priori clear system multistable regime.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown
Published: Jan. 24, 2025
Abstract As the climate warms, cold waves are expected to become less intense and frequent. Is there still a risk of reliving events comparable most spells we can remember? We analyze four remarkable that have occurred since 2010 in different regions: Western Europe, Texas, China, Brazil. show all these recent moderate high probability not happening again by 2100 – typically 50% 90% an intermediate emissions scenario, depending on event. The probabilities even higher for iconic 20th century or earlier. Our results suggest snaps, their associated icy landscapes mid-latitude regions, disappearing already disappeared due anthropogenic change.
Language: Английский
Citations
0
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 52(3)
Published: Jan. 30, 2025
Abstract A machine learning based methodology is developed to determine the strength of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in Community Earth System Model (CESM). Neural networks capture relationships between various climate variables and AMOC. We then identify which are most important control AMOC, perform symbolic regression transform complex interactions into a simple closed‐form approximation. sensitivity analysis for this equation reveals that surface freshwater flux potential density at 200 m depth main controls
Language: Английский
Citations
0