Climate Change and Infectious Diseases: From Evidence to a Predictive Framework

Science, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 341(6145), P. 514 - 519

Published: Aug. 1, 2013

Scientists have long predicted large-scale responses of infectious diseases to climate change, giving rise a polarizing debate, especially concerning human pathogens for which socioeconomic drivers and control measures can limit the detection climate-mediated changes. Climate change has already increased occurrence in some natural agricultural systems, but many cases, outcomes depend on form details host-pathogen system. In this review, we highlight research progress gaps that emerged during past decade develop predictive framework integrates knowledge from ecophysiology community ecology with modeling approaches. Future work must continue anticipate monitor pathogen biodiversity disease trends ecosystems identify opportunities mitigate impacts climate-driven emergence.

Language: Английский

---

Climate-Related Local Extinctions Are Already Widespread among Plant and Animal Species

PLoS Biology, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 14(12), P. e2001104 - e2001104

Published: Dec. 8, 2016

Current climate change may be a major threat to global biodiversity, but the extent of species loss will depend on details how respond changing climates. For example, if most can undergo rapid in their climatic niches, then extinctions limited. Numerous studies have now documented shifts geographic ranges that were inferred related change, especially towards higher mean elevations and latitudes. Many these contain valuable data local populations not yet been thoroughly explored. Specifically, overall range include contractions at "warm edges" species' (i.e., lower latitudes elevations), which occur through extinctions. Here, climate-related used test frequency recent change. The results show already occurred hundreds species, including 47% 976 surveyed. This was broadly similar across zones, clades, habitats significantly tropical than temperate (55% versus 39%), animals plants (50% freshwater relative terrestrial marine (74% 46% 51%). Overall, suggest are widespread, even though levels so far modest those predicted next 100 years. These presumably become much more prevalent as warming increases further by roughly 2-fold 5-fold over coming decades.

Language: Английский

---

Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming

Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 368(6492), P. 772 - 775

Published: May 14, 2020

Local factors restrain forest warming Microclimates are key to understanding how organisms and ecosystems respond macroclimate change, yet they frequently neglected when studying biotic responses global change. Zellweger et al. provide a long-term, continental-scale assessment of the effects micro- on community composition European forests (see Perspective by Lembrechts Nijs). They show that changes in canopy cover fundamentally important for driving climate Closed canopies buffer against macroclimatic change through their cooling effect, slowing shifts composition, whereas open tend accelerate local heating effects. Science , this issue p. 772 ; see also 711

Language: Английский

---

Global buffering of temperatures under forest canopies

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 3(5), P. 744 - 749

Published: April 1, 2019

Language: Английский

---

Changes in Ecologically Critical Terrestrial Climate Conditions

Science, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 341(6145), P. 486 - 492

Published: Aug. 1, 2013

Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly land oceans. Here, we review likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward emissions creates potential 21st-century that is comparable magnitude to largest 65 million years but orders more rapid. The rate implies a velocity change and required range shifts up several kilometers per year, raising prospect daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially context extensive use degradation, frequency severity extreme events, interactions other stresses.

Language: Английский

---

Pliocene and Eocene provide best analogs for near-future climates

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 115(52), P. 13288 - 13293

Published: Dec. 10, 2018

As the world warms due to rising greenhouse gas concentrations, Earth system moves toward climate states without societal precedent, challenging adaptation. Past offer possible model systems for warming of coming decades. These include Early Eocene (ca. 50 Ma), Mid-Pliocene (3.3-3.0 Last Interglacial (129-116 ka), Mid-Holocene (6 preindustrial 1850 CE), and 20th century. Here, we quantitatively assess similarity future projected these six geohistorical benchmarks using simulations from Hadley Centre Coupled Model Version 3 (HadCM3), Goddard Institute Space Studies E2-R (GISS), Community Climate System Model, Versions 4 (CCSM) models. Under Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) emission scenario, by 2030 CE, climates most closely resemble climates, 2150 they climates. RCP4.5, stabilizes at Pliocene-like conditions 2040 CE. Eocene-like emerge first in continental interiors then expand outward. Geologically novel are uncommon RCP4.5 (<1%) but reach 8.7% globe under RCP8.5, characterized high temperatures precipitation. Hence, is roughly equivalent stabilizing while unmitigated trajectories, such as similar reversing millions years long-term cooling on scale a few human generations. Both emergence geologically rapid reversion may be outside range evolutionary adaptive capacity.

Language: Английский

---

Managing Climate Change Refugia for Climate Adaptation

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 11(8), P. e0159909 - e0159909

Published: Aug. 10, 2016

Refugia have long been studied from paleontological and biogeographical perspectives to understand how populations persisted during past periods of unfavorable climate. Recently, researchers applied the idea contemporary landscapes identify climate change refugia, here defined as areas relatively buffered over time that enable persistence valued physical, ecological, socio-cultural resources. We differentiate historical views, characterize physical ecological processes create maintain refugia. then delineate refugia can fit into existing decision support frameworks for adaptation describe seven steps managing them. Finally, we challenges opportunities operationalizing concept Managing be an important option conservation in face ongoing change.

Language: Английский

---

Evolutionary tipping points in the capacity to adapt to environmental change

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 112(1), P. 184 - 189

Published: Nov. 24, 2014

Significance Environmental variation is becoming more frequent and unpredictable as a consequence of climate change, yet we currently lack the tools to evaluate extent which organisms may adapt this phenomenon. Here develop model that explores these issues use it study how changes in timescale predictability environmental ultimately affect population viability. Our indicates that, although populations can often cope with fairly large parameters, on occasion they will collapse abruptly go extinct. We characterize conditions under evolutionary tipping points occur discuss vulnerability such cryptic threats depend genetic architecture life history involved.

Language: Английский

---

Climate refugia: joint inference from fossil records, species distribution models and phylogeography

New Phytologist, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 204(1), P. 37 - 54

Published: July 16, 2014

Summary Climate refugia, locations where taxa survive periods of regionally adverse climate, are thought to be critical for maintaining biodiversity through the glacial–interglacial climate changes Q uaternary. A research need is better integrate and reconcile three major lines evidence used infer existence past refugia – fossil records, species distribution models phylogeographic surveys in order characterize complex spatiotemporal trajectories populations out refugia. Here we review complementary strengths, limitations new advances these approaches. We provide case studies illustrate their combined application, point way towards opportunities synthesizing disparate evidence. Case with E uropean beech, inghai spruce D ouglas‐fir how combination approaches successfully resolves histories not attainable from any one approach. Promising statistical techniques can capitalize on strengths each method a robust quantitative reconstruction history. Studying help identify contemporary clarify conservation significance, particular by elucidating fine‐scale processes geographic that buffer against rapidly changing climate. Contents 38 I. refugia: biogeographical significance II. Approaches reconstructing recent 39 III. past: 46 IV. New integrative 47 V. How historical inform us about future refugia? 48 VI. Concluding thoughts 49 Acknowledgements References

Language: Английский

---

Arctic marine mammal population status, sea ice habitat loss, and conservation recommendations for the 21st century

Conservation Biology, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 29(3), P. 724 - 737

Published: March 17, 2015

Arctic marine mammals (AMMs) are icons of climate change, largely because their close association with sea ice. However, neither a circumpolar assessment AMM status nor standardized metric ice habitat change is available. We summarized available data on abundance and trend for each species recognized subpopulation. also examined diversity, the extent human use, temporal trends in 12 regions by calculating dates spring retreat fall advance from satellite (1979–2013). Estimates varied greatly quality, few studies were long enough analysis. Of subpopulations, 78% (61 78) legally harvested subsistence purposes. Changes phenology have been profound. In all except Bering Sea, duration summer (i.e., reduced ice) period increased 5–10 weeks >20 Barents Sea between 1979 2013. light generally poor data, importance forecasted environmental changes 21st century, we recommend following effective conservation: maintain improve comanagement local, federal, international partners; recognize spatial variability subpopulation response to change; implement monitoring programs clear goals; mitigate cumulative impacts activity; limits current protected legislation. Estado de las Poblaciones Mamíferos Marinos del Ártico, la Pérdida Hábitats Hielo Marino y Recomendaciones Conservación para el Siglo XXI Los mamíferos marinos Ártico (MMA) son emblemas cambio climático, principalmente por su asociación cercana con hielo marino. Sin embargo, no se encuentran disponibles ni una evaluación estado los MMA medida estandarizada en hábitat Resumimos datos sobre abundancia tendencia cada especie reconocimos subpoblaciones. También examinamos diversidad especies, extensión uso parte humanos tendencias temporales marino doce regiones al calcular fechas retroceso hielos primavera avance otoño partir satelitales estimados variaron enormemente calidad pocos estudios fueron lo suficientemente largos como realizar un análisis tendencia. De subpoblaciones MMA, cazadas legalmente razones subsistencia. cambios fenología han sido profundos. En todas regiones, salvo Mar Bering, duración periodo verano (es decir, reducción hielo) incrementó semanas entre A razón generalmente pobres, importancia ambientales pronosticados XX1, recomendamos siguiente conservación efectiva MMA: mantener mejorar co-manejo socios locales, federales e internacionales; reconocer variabilidad espacial respuesta sub-poblaciones climático; implementar monitoreo programas objetivos claros; mitigar impactos acumulativos incremento actividad humana; límites legislación actual especies protegidas. The world's disproportionately threatened compared terrestrial counterparts (Schipper et al. 2008), 11 arctic particularly vulnerable due dependence (Laidre 2008a; Kovacs 2012; Reid & Laidre 2013). Some AMMs obligates, meaning life history events (e.g., reproduction, molting, resting) feeding depend ice, whereas others use but do not it completely 2008a). By mean that occur north Circle (66° 33′ N) most year ecosystem aspects selected seasonally inhabit waters may live outside part year. include 3 cetaceans (narwhal [Monodon monoceros], beluga [Delphinapterus leucas], bowhead [Balaena mysticetus] whales); 7 pinnipeds (ringed [Pusa hispida], bearded [Erignathus barbatus], spotted [Phoca largha], ribbon [Histriophoca fasciata], harp [Pagophilus groenlandicus], hooded [Cystophora cristata] seals walrus [Odobenus rosmarus]); polar bear (Ursus maritimus). Throughout much range, these animals important cultural nutritional resources indigenous nonindigenous peoples. Recent reviews outline vulnerabilities 2011). Warming over past decades has about 2 times greater than global (IPCC rate loss faster predicted models (Stroeve 2012), projections suggest an ice-free 2040 (Overland Wang Even if greenhouse gases, primary driver limited immediately, likely continue several Therefore, appears continued unprecedented habitats inevitable. reviewed what known population abundance, or stock. evaluated richness across quantified use. assessed provide first comparative measure change. Based our findings, make recommendations conservation relative gaps, forecasts, anthropogenic activities, complex social, economic, political context rapidly warming Arctic. compiled estimates published unpublished sources. Subpopulations included those management bodies advisory groups such as International Whaling Commission (IWC), North Atlantic Marine Mammal (NAMMCO), Union Conservation Nature (IUCN) specialist groups. Trends associated time frames reported authors noted. delineated regions, modified slightly Flora Fauna (CAFF) Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitoring Plan (CAFF 2011) (Fig. 1). central Basin was excluded paucity data. calculated number per region determining whether had legal commercial harvest. Habitat 1979–2013 daily concentration satellites (Supporting Information). date given when area fell below specific threshold, rose above same threshold. used region-specific threshold halfway March September areas baseline decade (1982–1991) characterize biologically transitions winter conditions. highest Baffin Bay, Davis Strait, Sea; lowest Okhotsk Beaufort Sea. availability quality here through 2015 widely (Table 1 Fig. 2). many cases, knowledge consisted single point estimate large uncertainty based expert opinion without formal bias. For cetaceans, 5 19 0 narwhal 4 subpopulations. Abundance ringed seal outdated, some small surveyed repeatedly seals. areas; however, represented only portion discreteness subpopulations uncertain. Trend suggested increased, stable declined. bears, 14, although out uncertainty. Current 10 derived projection untested assumptions Evaluation complicated unknown structure partial surveys seasonal aggregations. High survey methods, surveys, levels precision made summary difficult. Nonetheless, 35% 78 identified found taken nations Norway (including Svalbard). review subspecies, (n = 61) regularly 76% (74% belugas, 91% narwhals, 50% whales), including stocks which whales captured aquaria (White Sea). Approximately 80% pinniped walruses subsistence, purposes Norway, Canada, Russia (harp [Table 1]). Kara Laptev where illegal harvest occurs. Large occurred nearly habitats. Eleven showed statistically significant toward earlier retreat, later advance, and, consequently, longer summers 3, Supporting Only trend. effect 34-year season 2013 1979. largest 20 this period. sensitive choice they defined Information) typically fall. negatively correlated Climate widespread ecological (Rosenzweig 2008; Gilg Post 2013), yet its effects relatively underreported despite abiotic exceed temperate, tropical, montane biomes (ACIA 2005). quantitative evidence negative ice-obligate (Stirling 1999; Regehr 2007; Øigard 2010, 2013; 2010). species- subpopulation-specific responses vary space, evidenced delayed even positive (Moore 2006; Quakenbush 2011; Stirling Rode 2014; George 2015). Variability can arise differences exploitation histories, strategies, biological productivity, trophic interactions. Such heterogeneity respect systems, tend be more rich (Moritz Agudo Assessing mammal populations difficult wide distributions cryptic behavior compounded logistical challenges surveying remote areas. understanding identifying priorities, absent 3), lack will limit utility future assessments. Although expected lower carrying capacity ice-dependent species, currently recovering [George 2015], sport hunting [Schliebe 2006]) previously insufficiently managed prior 2000 West Greenland [Witting Born 2013]). short term, recovery previous overexploitation could mask reductions loss. addition, productivity could, period, offset potential result transient term increases (Quakenbush St Lawrence Estuary Cook Inlet beluga) show cessation harvesting (Wade 2012). modern world, rare wild mammals, particular top predators, support well-being communities, do. subspecies hunted commercially. Thus, intertwined renewable resource. responsibility resides federal state government agencies partners representing communities. Many under regional, national, agreements share decision-making power framework harvests supported national laws U.S. Protection Act, Nunavut Land Claims Agreement). comprehensive list, examples Alaska Native working United States Beluga Committee, Eskimo Commission, Walrus Nanuuq Ice Seal Committee. Inuvialuit Fisheries Joint Management Committee; Wildlife Boards Nunavut, Nunavik, Nunatsiavut; Polar Bear Administrative Chukotka (Russia), Associations Hunters (KNAPK) Association Traditional Chukotka, respectively, cooperate agencies. Furthermore, Greenland, carried local composed mainly ethnic Inuit. highly mobile undertake movements, resulting half 1) ranging regional boundaries, quantify movement poor. transboundary requires collaboration. Currently, bears joint commissions Canada Greenland; Russia) information shared Inupiat-Inuvialuit Agreement Canadian Technical Committee (also Greenland). Scientific narwhals though Canada–Greenland Narwhal-Beluga NAMMCO. receive advice NAMMCO, catch Russia, States, set IWC. Advice coordinated Council Exploration Seas Organization. It well established declining every month monthly areal capture timing annual influence feeding, AMMs. therefore This meaningful approach other metrics appropriate 1979-2013, 17 days/decade 25 consistent findings Stammerjohn (2012), who methods similar ours, Stroeve (2014), detection liquid water surface snow obtain melt onset freezing regions. addition extent, thickness decreased substantially (Schweiger Continuation induce (Notz 2009) possibly weather anomalies warm strong storm) impact thin correlation transition 2) manifestation ice-albedo feedback, extra heat absorbed ocean during early must released into atmosphere before begin form. direct indirect comprehensively (2008a) (2011). Loss affected survival (Regehr Pinniped pup related breakup young need sufficient suckling weaning (Øigard 2010; Absence Pacific calf crushing at crowded haul-out sites (Jay Physical properties, roughness depth (which decreasing [Webster 2014]), suitability lairs (Furgal 1996; Iacozza Ferguson 2014). Timing linked accessibility foraging production bloom ultimately influences (Carmack Wassmann 2006). Indirect consequences overlap new predators competitors. Finally, both ability humans access them fraction takes place near edge affecting abate immediate future. At present, there agreement reduce emissions gasses, unabated versus aggressive mitigation scenarios substantively diverge until least years fixed regardless efforts greenhouse-gas emissions. reduction solution mitigating long-term warming, scientists, managers, conservationists, industry, communities dependent prepare deal Accordingly, conservation. Maintaining increasing governmental entities key component face climate-induced viability (see "Human Use" section). culture people throughout (Born Comanagement directly involve resource vested interest it. They lead community participation minimizing human–polar conflicts), collection traditional knowledge, compliance restrictions, identification science priorities opportunities scientific sampling. Arctic, activities benefits prohibitively expensive otherwise infeasible involvement. Future require balancing needs declines There scientifically incremental balance social If loss, responsible percentage [Runge 2009; 2015]) hold unlikely accelerate environmentally driven declines. either updated periodically conservative levels. precautionary warranted populations, whereby increasingly risk-averse applied decline size resilience. Given fast pace how respond, flexible adaptive critical. articulation goals targets. users managers reducing human-caused disturbance removals, harvests, one mechanisms (but necessarily offset) Species exhibit variable space (Post 2009, Moritz variation characteristics ice), species' move favorable habitats, phenotypic behavioral plasticity, genetic traits bolster managing scales 2012) should incorporated predictive plans. contrasting climate. Chukchi southern rates 2), body condition reproductive parameters historic values region, declined (Rode Samples subsistence-harvested northern 2000s indicate vital better 1960s 1970s 2011), 1992 2011 (Harwood seals, observed attributed productivity. whale shown growth concurrent Both Bering-Chukchi-Beaufort (BCB) low whaling >3%/year, theoretical maximum (Wiig Givens time, BCB improved 1989 (George 2015), extensive productive Though showing recent changes, forecasts next 50–100 (Wang Overland serious threats Models forecast century Amstrup Udevitz 2013) inform prescribe term. Part challenge broad resolutions frames. Pitfalls making decisions coarse-resolution missed opportunities, sustainable latter risk alienating stakeholders compromising efforts. that, possible, consider risks coarse fine scales. monitored determine scale. Measuring trend, indicator status, demographic analysis reproduction survival), elusive distribution AMMs, acquiring realistic; thus, develop samples provides opportunity, collaboration suite age maturity, pregnancy rate, condition, pollution, contaminant loads) serve broader indicators. Other feasible monitor sensing observation Gulland analyzed together regular areas, reasonable strategy. Long-term provided foundation Western Hudson Bay Southern [Stirling 2010]) conjunction hunters, amounts cost. Successful Department Fish Game's Bio-monitoring Program Slope Borough's sampling program Harvest biosampling successfully conducted Canada. plans drafted whales, 2008b; Simpkins Vongraven 2014), systematically implemented. factors insufficient funding, organization will, awareness plans, absence major economic incentives cooperation biodiversity often projects span agency interests authority. rigorous, any work outlined plan while concurrently performing focused necessary meet needs. With physical barrier interchange disappearing (Heide-Jørgensen complicates emphasizes analyses. On level, moving Assessment CAFF Program. range states preparing action auspices 1973 Bears. An example successful Ocean Antarctic

Language: Английский

---