Understanding and modelling wildfire regimes: an ecological perspective

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(12), P. 125008 - 125008

Published: Nov. 16, 2021

Abstract Recent extreme wildfire seasons in several regions have been associated with exceptionally hot, dry conditions, made more probable by climate change. Much research has focused on fire weather and its drivers, but natural regimes—and their interactions human activities—are far from being comprehensively understood. There is a lack of clarity about the ‘causes’ wildfire, how ecosystems could be managed for co-existence people. We present evidence supporting an ecosystem-centred framework improved understanding modelling wildfire. Wildfire long geological history pervasive process contemporary plant communities. In some biomes, would frequent without settlement; others they unchanged or less frequent. A world greater forest cover, especially present-day savannas. Many species missing, because regimes co-evolved traits that resist, adapt to promote Certain are favoured different frequencies, may missing normally fire-free. For example, post-fire resprouting common among woody plants high-frequency than where infrequent. The impact habitat fragmentation crucially depends whether ecosystem fire-adapted. fire-free ecosystems, facilitates starts detrimental biodiversity. fire-adapted inhibits fires spreading suppression This interpretation explains observed, counterintuitive patterns spatial correlation between potential ignition sources. Lightning correlates positively burnt area only open fire. Human population densely forested regions. Models vegetation-fire must informed insights ecology make credible future projections changing climate.

Language: Английский

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Process-explicit models reveal the structure and dynamics of biodiversity patterns

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(31)

Published: Aug. 5, 2022

With ever-growing data availability and computational power at our disposal, we now have the capacity to use process-explicit models more widely reveal ecological evolutionary mechanisms responsible for spatiotemporal patterns of biodiversity. Most research questions focused on distribution diversity cannot be answered experimentally, because many important environmental drivers biological constraints operate large scales. However, can encode proposed into models, observe they produce in virtual environments, validate these against real-world or theoretical expectations. This approach advance understanding generalizable distributions organisms, communities, ecosystems space time, advancing basic applied science. We review recent developments how improved knowledge dynamics life Earth, enabling biodiversity better understood managed through a deeper recognition processes that shape genetic, species, ecosystem diversity.

Language: Английский

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What is conservation paleobiology? Tracking 20 years of research and development

Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Dec. 7, 2022

Conservation paleobiology has coalesced over the last two decades since its formal coining, united by goal of applying geohistorical records to inform conservation, management, and restoration biodiversity ecosystem services. Yet, field is still attempting form an identity distinct from academic roots. Here, we ask a deceptively simple question: What conservation paleobiology? To track development as field, synthesize complementary perspectives survey scientific community that familiar with systematic literature review publications use term. We present overview paleobiology’s research scope compare participants’ perceptions what it should be field. find paleobiologists variety data in their work, although typified near-time marine molluscs terrestrial mammals collected local regional spatial scales. Our results also confirm field’s broad disciplinary basis: participants indicated can incorporate information wide range disciplines spanning biology, ecology, historical paleontology, archaeology. Finally, show have yet reach consensus on how applied practice. The revealed many thought more but most do not currently engage Reflecting developed decades, discuss opportunities promote cohesion, strengthen collaborations within science, align training priorities continues crystallize.

Language: Английский

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pastclim 1.2: an R package to easily access and use paleoclimatic reconstructions

Ecography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 2023(3)

Published: Jan. 5, 2023

The recent development of continuous paleoclimatic reconstructions covering hundreds thousands years paved the way for a large number studies from disciplines ranging paleoecology to archaeology, conservation population genetics, macroevolution anthropology and human evolution linguistics. Unfortunately, (paleo)climatic data can be challenging extract analyze scholars unfamiliar with such specific file formats. Here we present pastclim , an R package facilitating access use reconstructions. It currently includes two datasets, respectively last 120 000 800 years, vignette provides instructions on how include additional datasets. contains set functions quickly easily recover climate time periods interest either whole world or areas, locations scattered in space and/or time, retrieve series individual sites, manage ice land coverage, offering handy platform past into existing new analyses pipelines.

Language: Английский

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Global beta-diversity of angiosperm trees is shaped by Quaternary climate change

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 9(14)

Published: April 5, 2023

As Earth's climate has varied strongly through geological time, studying the impacts of past change on biodiversity helps to understand risks from future change. However, it remains unclear how paleoclimate shapes spatial variation in biodiversity. Here, we assessed influence Quaternary dissimilarity taxonomic, phylogenetic, and functional composition among neighboring 200-kilometer cells (beta-diversity) for angiosperm trees worldwide. We found that larger glacial-interglacial temperature was associated with lower turnover (species replacements) higher nestedness (richness changes) components beta-diversity across all three facets. Moreover, phylogenetic than random expectations based taxonomic regions experienced large change, reflecting phylogenetically functionally selective processes species replacement, extinction, colonization during oscillations. Our results suggest human-driven could cause local homogenization reduction diversity

Language: Английский

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Predicting extinctions with species distribution models

Cambridge Prisms Extinction, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1

Published: Jan. 1, 2023

Predictions of species-level extinction risk from climate change are mostly based on species distribution models (SDMs). Reviewing the literature, we summarise why translation SDM results to is conceptually and methodologically challenged critical assumptions unlikely be met under change. Published SDM-derived estimates a positive relationship between range size decline risk, which empirically not well understood. Importantly, classification criteria used by IUCN Red List Threatened Species were meant for this purpose often misused. Future predictive studies would profit considerably better understanding risk-range relationship, particularly regarding persistence non-random few last individuals in dwindling populations. Nevertheless, face ongoing biodiversity crises, there high demand predictions future risks. Despite prevailing challenges, agree that SDMs currently provide most accessible method assess climate-related across multiple species. We current good practice how can serve classify into categories predict whether likely become threatened climate. However, uncertainties associated with translating predicted declines quantitative need adequately communicated should only attempted carefully conducted openly communicate limitations uncertainty.

Language: Английский

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Influence of climate factors on the global dynamic distribution of Tsuga (Pinaceae)

Ecological Indicators, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 158, P. 111533 - 111533

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Throughout the Quaternary period, climate change has significantly influenced plant distribution, particularly affecting species within genus Tsuga (Endl.) Carrière. This climatic impact ultimately led to extinction of all in Europe. Today, there are ten recognized worldwide, one listed as a vulnerable and four near-threatened species. The exhibits disjunctive distribution East Asia (EA), eastern North America (ENA), western (WNA). It is crucial comprehend mechanisms underlying these distributional changes identify key variables develop effective conservation strategies for under future scenarios. In this study, we applied maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model by combining data with abundant pollen fossil data. Our objective was investigate factors that shape Tsuga, thresholds, elucidate dynamics context significant over past 1070 thousand years (ka). findings highlight pivotal role precipitation factor Tsuga. Specifically, EA, summer driver, while (NA), winter exerted greater importance. Moreover, observed similarities requirements between Europe declines temperature were major contributing glacial interglacial fluctuations substantial impacts on dynamics. disappearance Korean Peninsula may have occurred during LGM (Last Glacial Maximum). potential suitable area EA expanded cold periods, NA, it contracted. future, result contraction both NA. study identified distinct response patterns various geographic regions offers corresponding suggestions conservation. will be imperative prioritize natural distributions focus fluctuation dynamic genus.

Language: Английский

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Paleorecords Reveal Biological Mechanisms Crucial for Reliable Species Range Shift Projections Amid Rapid Climate Change

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 28(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

ABSTRACT The recent acceleration of global climate warming has created an urgent need for reliable projections species distributions, widely used by natural resource managers. Such have been mainly produced distribution models with little information on their performances in novel climates. Here, we hindcast the range shifts forest tree across Europe over last 12,000 years to compare reliability three different types models. We show that most climatically dissimilar conditions, process‐explicit (PEMs) tend outperform correlative (CSDMs), and PEM are likely be more than those made CSDMs end 21st century. These results demonstrate first time often promoted albeit so far untested idea explicit description mechanisms confers model robustness, highlight a new avenue increase projection future.

Language: Английский

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Evolutionarily distinct lineages of a migratory bird of prey show divergent responses to climate change

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 16(1)

Published: April 13, 2025

Accurately predicting species' responses to anthropogenic climate change is hampered by limited knowledge of their spatiotemporal ecological and evolutionary dynamics. We combine landscape genomics, demographic reconstructions, species distribution models assess the eco-evolutionary past fluctuations future an Afro-Palaearctic migratory raptor, lesser kestrel (Falco naumanni). uncover two evolutionarily ecologically distinct lineages (European Asian), whose history, divergence, historical range were profoundly shaped climatic fluctuations. Using projections, we find that Asian lineage at higher risk contraction, increased migration distance, maladaptation, consequently greater extinction than European lineage. Our results emphasise importance providing context as a baseline for understanding contemporary change, illustrate how incorporating intraspecific genetic variation improves realism vulnerability assessments.

Language: Английский

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Climate and land use changes shift the distribution and dispersal of two umbrella species in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region

The Science of The Total Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 777, P. 146207 - 146207

Published: March 5, 2021

Language: Английский

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