Impacts of climate change on the future of biodiversity

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2012, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 365 - 377

Published: Jan. 18, 2012

Ecology Letters (2012) 15 : 365–377 Abstract Many studies in recent years have investigated the effects of climate change on future biodiversity. In this review, we first examine different possible that can operate at individual, population, species, community, ecosystem and biome scales, notably showing species respond to challenges by shifting their climatic niche along three non‐exclusive axes: time (e.g. phenology), space range) self physiology). Then, present principal specificities caveats most common approaches used estimate biodiversity global sub‐continental scales synthesise results. Finally, highlight several for research both theoretical applied realms. Overall, our review shows current estimates are very variable, depending method, taxonomic group, loss metrics, spatial periods considered. Yet, majority models indicate alarming consequences biodiversity, with worst‐case scenarios leading extinction rates would qualify as sixth mass history earth.

Language: Английский

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Approaching a state shift in Earth’s biosphere

Nature, Journal Year: 2012, Volume and Issue: 486(7401), P. 52 - 58

Published: June 1, 2012

Language: Английский

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How to measure and test phylogenetic signal

Methods in Ecology and Evolution, Journal Year: 2012, Volume and Issue: 3(4), P. 743 - 756

Published: April 10, 2012

Summary 1. Phylogenetic signal is the tendency of related species to resemble each other more than drawn at random from same tree. This pattern considerable interest in a range ecological and evolutionary research areas, various indices have been proposed for quantifying it. Unfortunately, these often lead contrasting results, guidelines choosing most appropriate index are lacking. 2. Here, we compare performance four commonly used using simulated data. Data were generated with numerical simulations trait evolution along phylogenetic trees under variety models. We investigated sensitivity approaches size phylogenies, resolution tree structure availability branch length information, examining both response selected power associated statistical tests. 3. found that Brownian motion (BM) model evolution, Abouheif’s C mean Pagel’s λ performed well substantially better Moran’s I Blomberg’s K . provided reliable effect measure discriminating between complex models but was computationally demanding suitable capture effects changing rates simulation experiments. 4. Interestingly, sample influenced not only uncertainty also expected values indices, while polytomies missing information had negligible impacts. 5. propose among depending on (a) their true underlying patterns signal, (b) whether test or quantitative required (c) sensitivities different topologies phylogenies. 6. These aim assess distinguish it distributions. They developed assumption BM, additional show they certain degree generalizable. particularly useful comparative analyses, when requiring proxy niche similarity, conservation studies explore loss extinction risks specific clades.

Language: Английский

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Increased temperature variation poses a greater risk to species than climate warming

Proceedings of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 281(1779), P. 20132612 - 20132612

Published: Jan. 29, 2014

Increases in the frequency, severity and duration of temperature extremes are anticipated near future. Although recent work suggests that changes variation will have disproportionately greater effects on species than to mean, much climate change research ecology has focused impacts mean change. Here, we couple fine-grained projections (2050-2059) thermal performance data from 38 ectothermic invertebrate contrast with those a simple model. We show based alone differ substantially incorporating variation, concert. most increases at temperatures, effect variance together yields range responses, temperate greatest risk declines. Our highlights importance using temporal incorporate full extent when assessing projecting performance.

Language: Английский

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Rare Species Support Vulnerable Functions in High-Diversity Ecosystems

PLoS Biology, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 11(5), P. e1001569 - e1001569

Published: May 28, 2013

Around the world, human-induced collapses of populations and species have triggered a sixth mass extinction crisis, with rare often being first to disappear. Although role diversity in maintenance ecosystem processes has been widely investigated, remains controversial. A critical issue is whether common insure against loss functions supported by species. This even more species-rich ecosystems where high functional redundancy among likely it thus assumed that functioning buffered loss. Here, using extensive datasets occurrences traits from three highly diverse (846 coral reef fishes, 2,979 alpine plants, 662 tropical trees), we demonstrate most distinct combinations are predominantly both terms local abundance regional occupancy. Moreover, low support vulnerable functions, no other carrying similar traits, rarer than expected chance all ecosystems. For instance, 63% 98% fish locally regionally rare, respectively. 32% 89% such Remarkably, 47% 55% tree only one individual per sample on average. Our results emphasize importance conservation, ecosystems, which thought exhibit redundancy. Rare offer aesthetic, cultural, or taxonomic value; they disproportionately increase potential breadth provided across spatial scales. As such, future uncertainty arising climate change ever-increasing anthropogenic pressures call for detailed understanding rarity vulnerability functioning.

Language: Английский

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Niche breadth predicts geographical range size: a general ecological pattern

Ecology Letters, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 16(8), P. 1104 - 1114

Published: June 17, 2013

Abstract The range of resources that a species uses (i.e. its niche breadth) might determine the geographical area it can occupy, but consensus on whether breadth–range size relationship generally exists among has been slow to emerge. validity this hypothesis is key question in ecology proposes mechanism for commonness and rarity, if true, may help predict species' vulnerability extinction. We identified 64 studies measured breadth size, we used meta‐analytic approach test presence relationship. found significant positive between environmental tolerance ( z = 0.49), habitat 0.45), diet 0.28). overall effect persisted even when incorporating sampling effects. Despite variability strength studies, general suggests specialist be disproportionately vulnerable loss climate change due synergistic effects narrow small size. An understanding ecological evolutionary mechanisms drive cause deviations from pattern an important future research goal.

Language: Английский

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Experimental evolution

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2012, Volume and Issue: 27(10), P. 547 - 560

Published: July 21, 2012

Language: Английский

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Thermal Performance Curves, Phenotypic Plasticity, and the Time Scales of Temperature Exposure

Integrative and Comparative Biology, Journal Year: 2011, Volume and Issue: 51(5), P. 691 - 702

Published: Aug. 13, 2011

Thermal performance curves (TPCs) describe the effects of temperature on biological rate processes. Here, we use examples from our work common killifish (Fundulus heteroclitus) to illustrate some important conceptual issues relating TPCs in context using these predict responses organisms climate change. Phenotypic plasticity has capacity alter shape and position for acute exposures, but changes can be obscured when processes are measured only following chronic exposures. For example, TPC mitochondrial respiration is exponential shape, this with acclimation. If at acclimation temperature, linear, concealing underlying mechanistic complexity an time scale. These particularly problematic attempting change natural environments. Many generated laboratory exposures constant temperatures, fluctuates environment, mechanisms influencing scales, traits scales may quite different. Unfortunately, current understanding incomplete, respect integrating occurring level single proteins up whole-organism functions across different which a challenge development strongly grounded models global

Language: Английский

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The emergence and promise of functional biogeography

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 111(38), P. 13690 - 13696

Published: Sept. 15, 2014

Understanding, modeling, and predicting the impact of global change on ecosystem functioning across biogeographical gradients can benefit from enhanced capacity to represent biota as a continuous distribution traits. However, this is challenge for field biogeography historically grounded species concept. Here we focus newly emergent functional biogeography: study geographic trait diversity organizational levels. We show how bridges species-based earth science provide ideas tools help explain in multifaceted (including species, functional, phylogenetic diversities), predict services worldwide, infuse regional conservation programs with basis. Although much recent progress has been made possible because rising multiple data streams, new developments ecoinformatics, methodological advances, future directions should theoretical comprehensive framework scaling biotic interactions trophic levels its ecological implications.

Language: Английский

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The Future of Species Under Climate Change: Resilience or Decline?

Science, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 341(6145), P. 504 - 508

Published: Aug. 1, 2013

As climates change across already stressed ecosystems, there is no doubt that species will be affected, but to what extent and which most vulnerable remain uncertain. The fossil record suggests persisted through past climate change, whereas forecasts of future impacts predict large-scale range reduction extinction. Many have altered limits phenotypes 20th-century responses are highly variable. proximate causes decline relative resilience largely obscure; however, recent examples climate-associated can help guide current management in parallel with ongoing research.

Language: Английский

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