On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 6(8), P. 1 - 55

Published: Aug. 1, 2015

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality associated broad‐scale forest die‐off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic the Anthropocene—are focus rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability trees hotter pests pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management policy‐making communities regarding future risks. We summarize key mortality‐relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels vulnerability. Evidence includes benefits elevated [CO 2 ] water‐use efficiency; observed modeled increases in growth canopy greening; widespread woody‐plant biomass, density, extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; potential mitigation management. In contrast, document more rapid under negative physiological responses accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence rising background rates; projected frequency, intensity, duration; limitations vegetation models such as inadequately represented processes; warming feedbacks from die‐off; wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape but have not been discussed collectively. also present a set global drivers are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) produces droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand nonlinearly temperature during drought; (4) can faster drought, consistent fundamental physiology; (5) shorter frequently than longer become lethal warming, increasing frequency nonlinearly; (6) happens relative intervals needed for recovery. These high‐confidence drivers, concert research supporting perspectives, support overall viewpoint globally. surmise is being discounted part difficulties predicting threshold extreme climate events. Given profound societal implications underestimating highlight urgent challenges management, communities.

Language: Английский

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The broad footprint of climate change from genes to biomes to people

Science, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 354(6313)

Published: Nov. 11, 2016

Accumulating impacts Anthropogenic climate change is now in full swing, our global average temperature already having increased by 1°C from preindustrial levels. Many studies have documented individual of the changing that are particular to species or regions, but accumulating and being amplified more broadly. Scheffers et al. review set been observed across genes, species, ecosystems reveal a world undergoing substantial change. Understanding causes, consequences, potential mitigation these changes will be essential as we move forward into warming world. Science , this issue p. 10.1126/science.aaf7671

Language: Английский

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Potential for evolutionary responses to climate change – evidence from tree populations

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 19(6), P. 1645 - 1661

Published: Feb. 22, 2013

Evolutionary responses are required for tree populations to be able track climate change. Results of 250 years common garden experiments show that most forest trees have evolved local adaptation, as evidenced by the adaptive differentiation in quantitative traits, reflecting environmental conditions population origins. On basis patterns variation 19 adaptation-related traits studied 59 species (mostly temperate and boreal from Northern hemisphere), we found genetic between clinal along gradients were very (respectively, 90% 78% cases). Thus, responding change will likely require again match their environments. We examine what kind information is needed evaluating potential respond, already available. review models related selection responses, known currently about traits. address special problems at range margins, highlight need more modeling understand specific issues southern northern margins. new less species. For extensively species, outside current ranges. Improving genomic allow better prediction responses. Competitive other interactions within deserve consideration. Despite long generation times, strong background genetics growing resources make useful research. The greatest response expected when large, high variability, strong, there ecological opportunity establishment adapted genotypes.

Language: Английский

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Isolation by environment

Molecular Ecology, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 23(23), P. 5649 - 5662

Published: Sept. 25, 2014

The interactions between organisms and their environments can shape distributions of spatial genetic variation, resulting in patterns isolation by environment (IBE) which environmental distances are positively correlated, independent geographic distance. IBE represents one the most important that results from ways landscape heterogeneity influences gene flow population connectivity, but it has only recently been examined studies ecological genetics. Nevertheless, study presents valuable opportunities to investigate how processes, agents selection variables contributes divergence nature. New increasingly sophisticated natural systems poised make significant contributions our understanding role ecology modes differentiation both within species. Here, we describe underlying processes generate IBE, examine its implications for a wide variety disciplines outline several areas future research answer pressing questions about basis diversity.

Language: Английский

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Finding the Genomic Basis of Local Adaptation: Pitfalls, Practical Solutions, and Future Directions

The American Naturalist, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 188(4), P. 379 - 397

Published: Aug. 15, 2016

Uncovering the genetic and evolutionary basis of local adaptation is a major focus biology. The recent development cost-effective methods for obtaining high-quality genome-scale data makes it possible to identify some loci responsible adaptive differences among populations. Two basic approaches identifying putatively locally have been developed are broadly used: one that identifies with unusually high differentiation populations (differentiation outlier methods) searches correlations between population allele frequencies environments (genetic-environment association methods). Here, we review promises challenges these genome scan methods, including correcting confounding influence species' demographic history, biases caused by missing aspects genome, matching scales environmental structure, other statistical considerations. In each case, make suggestions best practices maximizing accuracy efficiency scans detect underlying adaptation. With attention their current limitations, can be an important tool in finding change.

Language: Английский

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Hybridization and extinction

Evolutionary Applications, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 9(7), P. 892 - 908

Published: Feb. 5, 2016

Abstract Hybridization may drive rare taxa to extinction through genetic swamping, where the form is replaced by hybrids, or demographic population growth rates are reduced due wasteful production of maladaptive hybrids. Conversely, hybridization rescue viability small, inbred populations. Understanding factors that contribute destructive versus constructive outcomes key managing conservation concerns. Here, we survey literature for studies and identify ecological, evolutionary, critically affect risk hybridization. We find while highly situation dependent, swamping much more frequent than swamping. In addition, human involvement associated with increased high reproductive isolation risk. Although climate change predicted increase hybridization‐induced extinction, little empirical support this prediction. Similarly, theoretical experimental imply be equally probable but our failed claim. conclude halting introduction hybridization‐prone exotics restoring mature diverse habitats resistant hybrid establishment should management priorities.

Language: Английский

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Genetic rescue to the rescue

Trends in Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 30(1), P. 42 - 49

Published: Nov. 29, 2014

Language: Английский

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Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

Evolutionary Applications, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 123 - 139

Published: Oct. 14, 2013

Abstract As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic directly caused by change, and whether they result from plasticity or evolution, active areas of investigation. Here, review terrestrial studies addressing questions. Plastic evolutionary responses to clearly occurring. Of the 38 that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic responses, with 26 showing both. These however, may be insufficient keep pace as indicated eight 12 examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence adaptive, contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors will likely influence extent including patterns environmental changes, species’ life history characteristics generation time breeding system, degree direction gene flow. Future standardized methodologies, especially those use direct approaches assessing over time, sharing data through public databases, facilitate better predictions capacity populations respond rapid change.

Language: Английский

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Time to get moving: assisted gene flow of forest trees

Evolutionary Applications, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 9(1), P. 271 - 290

Published: July 6, 2015

Abstract Geographic variation in trees has been investigated since the mid‐18th century. Similar patterns of clinal have observed along latitudinal and elevational gradients common garden experiments for many temperate boreal species. These studies convinced forest managers that a ‘local is best’ seed source policy was usually safest reforestation. In recent decades, experimental design, phenotyping methods, climatic data statistical analyses improved greatly refined but not radically changed knowledge clines. The maintenance local adaptation despite high gene flow suggests selection to climate strong. Concerns over maladaptation resulting from change motivated new genecological population genomics studies; however, few jurisdictions implemented assisted (AGF), translocation pre‐adapted individuals facilitate planted forests change. Here, we provide evidence tree species show clines sufficiently similar average or models guide AGF absence species‐specific knowledge. Composite provenancing multiple sources can be used increase diversity buffer against future uncertainty. New will continue refine improve as climates warm further.

Language: Английский

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Shifting paradigms in restoration of the world's coral reefs

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 23(9), P. 3437 - 3448

Published: March 1, 2017

Abstract Many ecosystems around the world are rapidly deteriorating due to both local and global pressures, perhaps none so precipitously as coral reefs. Management of reefs through maintenance (e.g., marine‐protected areas, catchment management improve water quality), restoration, well national governmental agreements reduce greenhouse gas emissions 2015 Paris Agreement) is critical for persistence Despite these initiatives, health abundance corals declining other solutions will soon be required. We have recently discussed options using assisted evolution (i.e., selective breeding, gene flow, conditioning or epigenetic programming, manipulation microbiome) a means enhance environmental stress tolerance success reef restoration efforts. The 2014–2016 bleaching event has sharpened focus on such interventionist approaches. highlight necessity consideration alternative hybrid) ecosystem states, discuss traits resilient ecosystems, propose decision tree incorporating into initiatives climate resilience

Language: Английский

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