On underestimation of global vulnerability to tree mortality and forest die‐off from hotter drought in the Anthropocene

Ecosphere, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 6(8), P. 1 - 55

Published: Aug. 1, 2015

Patterns, mechanisms, projections, and consequences of tree mortality associated broad‐scale forest die‐off due to drought accompanied by warmer temperatures—“hotter drought”, an emerging characteristic the Anthropocene—are focus rapidly expanding literature. Despite recent observational, experimental, modeling studies suggesting increased vulnerability trees hotter pests pathogens, substantial debate remains among research, management policy‐making communities regarding future risks. We summarize key mortality‐relevant findings, differentiating between those implying lesser versus greater levels vulnerability. Evidence includes benefits elevated [CO 2 ] water‐use efficiency; observed modeled increases in growth canopy greening; widespread woody‐plant biomass, density, extent; compensatory physiological, morphological, genetic mechanisms; dampening ecological feedbacks; potential mitigation management. In contrast, document more rapid under negative physiological responses accelerated biotic attacks. Additional evidence rising background rates; projected frequency, intensity, duration; limitations vegetation models such as inadequately represented processes; warming feedbacks from die‐off; wildfire synergies. Grouping these findings we identify ten contrasting perspectives that shape but have not been discussed collectively. also present a set global drivers are known with high confidence: (1) droughts eventually occur everywhere; (2) produces droughts; (3) atmospheric moisture demand nonlinearly temperature during drought; (4) can faster drought, consistent fundamental physiology; (5) shorter frequently than longer become lethal warming, increasing frequency nonlinearly; (6) happens relative intervals needed for recovery. These high‐confidence drivers, concert research supporting perspectives, support overall viewpoint globally. surmise is being discounted part difficulties predicting threshold extreme climate events. Given profound societal implications underestimating highlight urgent challenges management, communities.

Language: Английский

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Ecological genomics of local adaptation

Nature Reviews Genetics, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 14(11), P. 807 - 820

Published: Oct. 18, 2013

Language: Английский

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The exceptional value of intact forest ecosystems

Nature Ecology & Evolution, Journal Year: 2018, Volume and Issue: 2(4), P. 599 - 610

Published: Feb. 24, 2018

Language: Английский

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Assisted Gene Flow to Facilitate Local Adaptation to Climate Change

Annual Review of Ecology Evolution and Systematics, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 44(1), P. 367 - 388

Published: Oct. 11, 2013

Assisted gene flow (AGF) between populations has the potential to mitigate maladaptation due climate change. However, AGF may cause outbreeding depression (especially if source and recipient have been long isolated) disrupt local adaptation nonclimatic factors. Selection should eliminate extrinsic adaptive differences in large populations, simulations suggest that, within a few generations, evolution resolve mild intrinsic epistasis. To weigh risks of against those change, we need know species' extent other environmental factors, as well its pattern flow. be powerful tool for managing foundation resource-producing species with broad ranges that show signs historical climatic conditions.

Language: Английский

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Revisiting the Holy Grail: using plant functional traits to understand ecological processes

Biological reviews/Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 92(2), P. 1156 - 1173

Published: April 22, 2016

ABSTRACT One of ecology's grand challenges is developing general rules to explain and predict highly complex systems. Understanding predicting ecological processes from species' traits has been considered a ‘ H oly G rail’ in ecology. Plant functional are increasingly being used develop mechanistic models that can how communities will respond abiotic biotic perturbations species affect ecosystem function services rapidly changing world; however, significant remain. In this review, we highlight recent work outstanding questions three areas: ( i ) selecting relevant traits; ii describing intraspecific trait variation incorporating into models; iii scaling data community‐ ecosystem‐level processes. Over the past decade, there have advances characterization plant strategies based on relationships, integration multivariate indices community function. However, utility trait‐based approaches ecology benefit efforts demonstrate these influence organismal, community, across vegetation types, which may be achieved through meta‐analysis enhancement databases. Additionally, interactions need incorporated predictive using tools such as Bayesian hierarchical modelling. Finally, existing linking empirically tested for their applicability realized.

Language: Английский

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Evolutionary and plastic responses to climate change in terrestrial plant populations

Evolutionary Applications, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 123 - 139

Published: Oct. 14, 2013

Abstract As climate change progresses, we are observing widespread changes in phenotypes many plant populations. Whether these phenotypic directly caused by change, and whether they result from plasticity or evolution, active areas of investigation. Here, review terrestrial studies addressing questions. Plastic evolutionary responses to clearly occurring. Of the 38 that met our criteria for inclusion, all found plastic responses, with 26 showing both. These however, may be insufficient keep pace as indicated eight 12 examined this directly. There is also mixed evidence adaptive, contemporary climatic changes. We discuss factors will likely influence extent including patterns environmental changes, species’ life history characteristics generation time breeding system, degree direction gene flow. Future standardized methodologies, especially those use direct approaches assessing over time, sharing data through public databases, facilitate better predictions capacity populations respond rapid change.

Language: Английский

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Changes in Ecologically Critical Terrestrial Climate Conditions

Science, Journal Year: 2013, Volume and Issue: 341(6145), P. 486 - 492

Published: Aug. 1, 2013

Terrestrial ecosystems have encountered substantial warming over the past century, with temperatures increasing about twice as rapidly land oceans. Here, we review likelihood of continued changes in terrestrial climate, including analyses Coupled Model Intercomparison Project global climate model ensemble. Inertia toward emissions creates potential 21st-century that is comparable magnitude to largest 65 million years but orders more rapid. The rate implies a velocity change and required range shifts up several kilometers per year, raising prospect daunting challenges for ecosystems, especially context extensive use degradation, frequency severity extreme events, interactions other stresses.

Language: Английский

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Climate change impacts and adaptation in forest management: a review

Annals of Forest Science, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 72(2), P. 145 - 167

Published: Jan. 13, 2015

Abstract Key message Adaptation of forest management to climate change requires an understanding the effects on forests, industries and communities; prediction how these might over time; incorporation this knowledge into decisions. This multiple forms new approaches Partnerships that integrate researchers from disciplines with managers local actors can build a shared future challenges facilitate improved decision making in face change. Context Climate presents significant potential risks forests for managers. involves monitoring anticipating undertaking actions avoid negative consequences take advantage benefits those changes. Aims paper aimed review recent research impacts options adaptation identify key themes Methods The study is based literature identified Web Science database, focusing papers reports published between 1945 2013. Results One thousand one hundred seventy-two were search, vast majority 1986 Seventy-six percent involved assessment or sensitivity vulnerability 11 % (130) considered adaptation. Important analysis included (i) predicting species ecosystem responses climate, (ii) management, (iii) tools under uncertainty stronger partnerships practitioners (iv) policy arrangements management. Conclusions Research support still heavily focused assessing vulnerability. However, more refined impact assessments are not necessarily leading better Multi-disciplinary emerging traditional sciences social, economic behavioural improve making. Implementing best achieved by building among different institutions, agencies, owners stakeholders. Research-policy-practice recognise needs indigenous science

Language: Английский

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Time to get moving: assisted gene flow of forest trees

Evolutionary Applications, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 9(1), P. 271 - 290

Published: July 6, 2015

Abstract Geographic variation in trees has been investigated since the mid‐18th century. Similar patterns of clinal have observed along latitudinal and elevational gradients common garden experiments for many temperate boreal species. These studies convinced forest managers that a ‘local is best’ seed source policy was usually safest reforestation. In recent decades, experimental design, phenotyping methods, climatic data statistical analyses improved greatly refined but not radically changed knowledge clines. The maintenance local adaptation despite high gene flow suggests selection to climate strong. Concerns over maladaptation resulting from change motivated new genecological population genomics studies; however, few jurisdictions implemented assisted (AGF), translocation pre‐adapted individuals facilitate planted forests change. Here, we provide evidence tree species show clines sufficiently similar average or models guide AGF absence species‐specific knowledge. Composite provenancing multiple sources can be used increase diversity buffer against future uncertainty. New will continue refine improve as climates warm further.

Language: Английский

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Genetic Management of Fragmented Animal and Plant Populations

Oxford University Press eBooks, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 13, 2017

Abstract The biological diversity of the planet is being rapidly depleted due to direct and indirect consequences human activity. As size animal plant populations decrease fragmentation increases, loss genetic reduces their ability adapt changes in environment, with inbreeding reduced fitness inevitable for many species. Many small isolated are going extinct unnecessarily. In cases, such can be genetically rescued by gene flow into them from another population within species, but this very rarely done. This novel authoritative book addresses issues involved management fragmented populations, including depression, elevated extinction risk augmentation flow, rescue, causes outbreeding depression predicting its occurrence, desirability implementation translocations cope climate change, defining diagnosing species conservation purposes.

Language: Английский

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