Tropical forests in the Americas are changing too slowly to track climate change

Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 387(6738)

Published: March 6, 2025

Understanding the capacity of forests to adapt climate change is pivotal importance for conservation science, yet this still widely unknown. This knowledge gap particularly acute in high-biodiversity tropical forests. Here, we examined how Americas have shifted community trait composition recent decades as a response changes climate. Based on historical trait-climate relationships, found that, overall, studied functional traits show shifts less than 8% what would be expected given observed However, recruit assemblage shows 21% relative expectation. The most diverse Earth are changing but at rate that fundamentally insufficient track change.

Language: Английский

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Conservation of Tropical Forests in the Anthropocene

Current Biology, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 29(19), P. R1008 - R1020

Published: Oct. 1, 2019

Language: Английский

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Degradation and forgone removals increase the carbon impact of intact forest loss by 626%

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 5(10)

Published: Oct. 11, 2019

More complete accounting reveals how intact tropical forest loss plays a larger-than-realized role in exacerbating climate change.

Language: Английский

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Extent, intensity and drivers of mammal defaunation: a continental-scale analysis across the Neotropics

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Sept. 15, 2020

Neotropical mammal diversity is currently threatened by several chronic human-induced pressures. We compiled 1,029 contemporary assemblages surveyed across the Neotropics to quantify continental-scale extent and intensity of defaunation understand their determinants based on environmental covariates. calculated a local index for all assemblages-adjusted false-absence ratio-which was examined using structural equation models. propose hunting socioenvironmental co-variables that either intensify or inhibit hunting, which we used as an additional predictor defaunation. Mammal average erased 56.5% source fauna, with ungulates comprising most ubiquitous losses. The widespread, but more incipient in hitherto relatively intact major biomes are rapidly succumbing encroaching deforestation frontiers. Assemblage-wide body mass distribution greatly reduced from historical 95th-percentile ~ 14 kg only 4 modern assemblages. Defaunation depletion large-bodied species were primarily driven pressure remaining habitat area. Our findings can inform guidelines design transnational conservation policies safeguard native vertebrates, ensure "empty ecosystem" syndrome will be deterred reaching much New World tropics.

Language: Английский

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Where Might We Find Ecologically Intact Communities?

Frontiers in Forests and Global Change, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 4

Published: April 15, 2021

Conservation efforts should target the few remaining areas of world that represent outstanding examples ecological integrity and aim to restore a much broader area with intact habitat minimal species loss while this is still possible. There have been many assessments “intactness” in recent years but most these use measures anthropogenic impact at site, rather than faunal intactness or integrity. This paper makes first assessment for global terrestrial land surface assesses how ecoregions sites could qualify as Key Biodiversity Areas (KBAs – contributing significantly persistence biodiversity) based on their (under KBA Criterion C). Three datasets are combined create new spatially explicit map numbers extirpated. Based it estimated no more 2.9% can be considered faunally intact. Additionally, using habitat/density distribution data 15 large mammals we also make an initial where mammal densities reduced, showing further decrease 2.8% functionally Only 11% were identified included within existing protected areas, only 4% KBAs triggered by other criteria. Our findings show number C potentially increase up 20% if composition was restored reintroduction 1–5 species. Hence, all necessary requirements met order reintroduce regain integrity, will across human impacts low (human footprint ≤4). Focusing restoration planet full

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic modification of forests means only 40% of remaining forests have high ecosystem integrity

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Dec. 8, 2020

Many global environmental agendas, including halting biodiversity loss, reversing land degradation, and limiting climate change, depend upon retaining forests with high ecological integrity, yet the scale degree of forest modification remain poorly quantified mapped. By integrating data on observed inferred human pressures an index lost connectivity, we generate a globally consistent, continuous condition as determined by anthropogenic modification. Globally, only 17.4 million km2 (40.5%) has landscape-level integrity (mostly found in Canada, Russia, Amazon, Central Africa, New Guinea) 27% this area is nationally designated protected areas. Of inside areas, 56% integrity. Ambitious policies that prioritize retention especially most intact are now urgently needed alongside current efforts aimed at deforestation restoring globally.

Language: Английский

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Multi‐scale habitat modelling identifies spatial conservation priorities for mainland clouded leopards (Neofelis nebulosa)

Diversity and Distributions, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 25(10), P. 1639 - 1654

Published: July 18, 2019

Abstract Aim Deforestation is rapidly altering Southeast Asian landscapes, resulting in some of the highest rates habitat loss worldwide. Among many species facing declines this region, clouded leopards rank notably for their ambassadorial potential and capacity to act as powerful levers broader forest conservation programmes. Thus, identifying core opportunities are critical curbing further Neofelis extending umbrella protection diverse biota similarly threatened by widespread loss. Furthermore, a recent comprehensive assessment Sunda ( N. diardi ) highlights lack such information mainland nebulosa facilitates comparative assessment. Location Asia. Methods Species–habitat relationships scale‐dependent, yet <5% all modelling papers apply robust approaches optimize multivariate scale relationships. Using one largest camera trap datasets ever collected, we developed scale‐optimized distribution models two con‐generic carnivores, quantitatively compared niches. Results We identified habitat, connectivity corridors, ranked remaining patches prioritization. Closed‐canopy was strongest predictor, with ~25% lower detections when cover declined from 100 65%. A strong, positive association increasing precipitation suggests ongoing climate change growing threat along drier edges species’ range. While deforestation land use conversion were deleterious both species, uniquely associated shrublands grasslands. 800 km 2 minimum patch size supporting leopard conservation. Main conclusions illustrate utility multi‐scale key requirements, optimal scales targets guiding Curbing development within dispersal particularly Myanmar, Laos Malaysia, evolutionary biodiversity.

Language: Английский

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Averting wildlife-borne infectious disease epidemics requires a focus on socio-ecological drivers and a redesign of the global food system

EClinicalMedicine, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 47, P. 101386 - 101386

Published: April 18, 2022

A debate has emerged over the potential socio-ecological drivers of wildlife-origin zoonotic disease outbreaks and emerging infectious (EID) events. This Review explores extent to which incidence outbreaks, are likely include devastating pandemics like HIV/AIDS COVID-19, may be linked excessive increasing rates tropical deforestation for agricultural food production wild meat hunting trade, further related contemporary ecological crises such as global warming mass species extinction. Here we explore a set precautionary responses zoonosis threat, including: (a) limiting human encroachment into wildlands by promoting transition diets low in livestock source foods; (b) containing trade curbing urban demand, while securing access indigenous people local communities remote subsistence areas; (c) improving biosecurity other strategies break transmission pathways at wildlife-human interface along animal supply chains.

Language: Английский

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Population density estimates for terrestrial mammal species

Global Ecology and Biogeography, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 31(5), P. 978 - 994

Published: March 8, 2022

Abstract Aim Population density is a key parameter in ecology and conservation, estimates of population are required for wide variety applications fundamental applied ecology. Yet, terrestrial mammals these data available only minority species, their availability taxonomically geographically biased. Here, we provide the most plausible predictions average density, natural variability statistical uncertainty 4,925 mammal species. Location Global. Time period 1970–2021. Major taxa studied Terrestrial mammals. Methods We fitted an additive mixed‐effect model accounting spatial phylogenetic autocorrelation on dataset including 5,412 737 Average was modelled as function body mass, diet, locomotor habits environmental conditions. validated using taxonomic block cross‐validation used estimated error to quantify around Results Small size, fossorial behaviour herbivorous diets were associated with highest densities, whereas large aerial carnivorous related lowest densities. Species non‐seasonal environments yielded higher densities than species high precipitation seasonality. Empirical vary by about four times within same statistically independent majority deviate five from observed values, indicating that prediction errors similar Main conclusions Our open up number macroecology conservation biogeography, biomass estimation, setting targets assessments planning, supporting Red List assessments. The methodology can be replicated easily other groups representative sample georeferenced estimates.

Language: Английский

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The anthropogenic fingerprint on emerging infectious diseases

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: May 22, 2024

Abstract Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly understood as a hallmark of the Anthropocene 1–3 . Most experts agree that anthropogenic ecosystem change and high-risk contact among people, livestock, wildlife have contributed to recent emergence new zoonotic, vector-borne, environmentally-transmitted pathogens 1,4–6 However, extent which these factors also structure landscapes human infection outbreak risk is not well understood, beyond certain well-studied disease systems 7–9 Here, we consolidate 58,319 unique records events for 32 emerging worldwide, systematically test influence 16 hypothesized social environmental drivers on geography risk, while adjusting multiple detection, reporting, research biases. Across diseases, risks widely associated with mosaic where people live alongside forests fragmented ecosystems, commonly exacerbated by long-term decreases in precipitation. The combined effects particularly strong vector-borne (e.g., Lyme dengue fever), underscoring policy strategies manage will need address land use climate 10–12 In contrast, find little evidence spillovers directly-transmitted zoonotic Ebola virus mpox) consistently factors, or other such deforestation agricultural intensification 13 importantly, observed spatial intensity primarily an artefact healthcare access, indicating existing surveillance remain insufficient comprehensive monitoring response: across reporting declined median 32% (range 1.2%-96.7%) each additional hour’s travel time from nearest health facility. Our findings underscore multicausal feature social-ecological systems, no one-size-fits-all global strategy can prevent epidemics pandemics. Instead, ecosystem-based interventions should follow regional priorities system-specific evidence, be paired investment One Health system strengthening.

Language: Английский

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