Epidemics,
Journal Year:
2024,
Volume and Issue:
46, P. 100744 - 100744
Published: Feb. 2, 2024
Non-pharmaceutical
interventions
(NPIs)
and
vaccines
have
been
widely
used
to
manage
the
COVID-19
pandemic.
However,
uncertainty
persists
regarding
effectiveness
of
these
due
data
quality
issues,
methodological
challenges,
differing
contextual
factors.
Accurate
estimation
their
effects
is
crucial
for
future
epidemic
preparedness.
To
address
this,
we
developed
a
population-based
mechanistic
model
that
includes
impact
NPIs
on
SARS-CoV-2
transmission
hospitalization
rates.
Our
statistical
approach
estimated
all
parameters
in
one
step,
accurately
propagating
uncertainty.
We
fitted
comprehensive
epidemiological
France
from
March
2020
October
2021.
With
same
model,
simulated
scenarios
vaccine
rollout.
The
first
lockdown
was
most
effective,
reducing
by
84%
(95%
confidence
interval
(CI)
83-85).
Subsequent
lockdowns
had
diminished
(reduction
74%
(69-77)
11%
(9-18),
respectively).
A
6
pm
curfew
more
effective
than
at
8
(68%
(66-69)
vs.
48%
(45-49)
reduction),
while
school
closures
reduced
15%
(12-18).
In
scenario
without
before
November
2021,
predicted
159,000
or
194%
prediction
(PI)
74-424)
deaths
1,488,000
340%
(136-689)
hospitalizations.
If
available
after
100
days,
over
71,000
(16,507-204,249)
384,000
(88,579-1,020,386)
hospitalizations
could
averted.
results
highlight
substantial
NPIs,
including
curfews,
controlling
also
demonstrate
value
days
objective
Coalition
Epidemic
Preparedness
Innovations
(CEPI)
initiative
availability.
Nature Communications,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
13(1)
Published: May 10, 2022
Safety
and
effectiveness
of
COVID-19
vaccines
during
pregnancy
is
a
particular
concern
affecting
vaccination
uptake
by
this
vulnerable
group.
Here
we
evaluated
evidence
from
23
studies
including
117,552
vaccinated
pregnant
people,
almost
exclusively
with
mRNA
vaccines.
We
show
that
the
against
RT-PCR
confirmed
SARS-CoV-2
infection
7
days
after
second
dose
was
89·5%
(95%
CI
69·0-96·4%,
18,828
I
Nature Communications,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
12(1)
Published: June 16, 2021
There
is
a
consensus
that
mass
vaccination
against
SARS-CoV-2
will
ultimately
end
the
COVID-19
pandemic.
However,
it
not
clear
when
and
which
control
measures
can
be
relaxed
during
rollout
of
programmes.
We
investigate
relaxation
scenarios
using
an
age-structured
transmission
model
has
been
fitted
to
age-specific
seroprevalence
data,
hospital
admissions,
projected
coverage
for
Portugal.
Our
analyses
suggest
pressing
need
restart
socioeconomic
activities
could
lead
new
pandemic
waves,
substantial
efforts
prove
necessary
throughout
2021.
Using
knowledge
on
introduced
in
2020,
we
anticipate
relaxing
completely
or
extent
as
autumn
2020
launch
wave
starting
April
Additional
waves
prevented
altogether
if
are
summer
step-wise
manner
discuss
at
point
would
achieved
each
scenario.
Vaccines,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
9(12), P. 1393 - 1393
Published: Nov. 25, 2021
Vaccination
is
undoubtedly
one
of
the
most
effective
strategies
to
halt
COVID-19
pandemic.
The
current
study
aimed
investigate
acceptance
vaccination
and
its
associated
factors
using
two
health
behavior
change
frameworks:
Health
Belief
Model
(HBM)
Theory
Planned
Behavior
(TPB).
A
total
639
Bangladeshi
adults
(mean
age:
24
years)
participated
in
a
cross-sectional
online
between
July
August
2021.
questionnaire
covered
questions
regarding
vaccine
intentions,
sociodemographic
features,
status,
perceived
trust
in/satisfaction
with
authorities,
reasons
for
hesitancy,
related
frameworks.
Hierarchical
logistic
regression
was
employed
determine
associations
these
predictors
acceptance.
intention
get
expressed
among
85%
participants.
In
fully
adjusted
models,
students
respondents
more
normal
body
weights
reported
higher
intentions
vaccinated.
Respondents
were
also
likely
seek
if
they
greater
levels
susceptibility,
benefits,
cues
action,
as
well
lower
barriers
self-efficacy.
Fear
future
side
effects
common
reason
hesitancy
by
94%
vaccine-hesitant
respondents.
These
should
be
considered
authorities
Bangladesh
perhaps
other
countries
when
addressing
plateauing
rates
many
populations.
medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory),
Journal Year:
2020,
Volume and Issue:
unknown
Published: July 24, 2020
Variation
in
individual
susceptibility
or
frequency
of
exposure
to
infection
accelerates
the
rate
at
which
populations
acquire
immunity
by
natural
infection.
Individuals
that
are
more
susceptible
frequently
exposed
tend
be
infected
earlier
and
hence
quickly
selected
out
pool,
decelerating
incidence
new
infections
as
epidemic
progresses.
Eventually,
numbers
become
low
enough
prevent
growth
or,
other
words,
herd
threshold
(HIT)
is
reached.
We
have
recently
proposed
a
method
whereby
mathematical
models,
with
gamma
distributions
SARS-CoV-2,
fitted
curves
estimate
coefficients
variation
among
epidemiological
parameters
interest.
In
initial
study
we
estimated
HIT
around
25-29%
for
original
Wuhan
virus
England
Scotland.
Here
explore
limits
applicability
using
Spain
Portugal
case
studies.
Results
robust
consistent
Scotland,
Spain,
but
fail
due
particularities
dataset.
describe
failures,
identify
their
causes,
propose
methodological
extensions.
Narra J,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
1(3)
Published: Dec. 1, 2021
Vaccine
hesitancy,
defined
as
the
reluctance
or
rejection
in
receiving
a
vaccine
despite
its
availability,
represents
major
challenge
to
global
health
efforts
aiming
control
ongoing
COVID-19
pandemic.
Understanding
possible
factors
correlated
with
hesitancy
using
refined
well-informed
approach
can
be
helpful
address
phenomenon.
The
current
study
aimed
evaluate
acceptance
rates
four
hypothetical
scenarios
of
varying
levels
efficacy
and
safety
profiles
ten
Asian,
African
South
American
countries.
These
included:
95%
20%
side
effects
(Vaccine
A),
75%
5%
B);
C)
50%
D).
This
used
self-administered
online
survey
that
was
distributed
during
February–May
2021.
total
number
respondents
1337
countries
residence
follows:
India
(21.1%),
Pakistan
(12.9%),
Sudan
(11.2%),
Nigeria
(9.3%),
Iran
(8.2%),
Bangladesh
Brazil
(7.9%),
Chile
(7.7%),
Tunisia
(7.6%),
Egypt
(6.2%).
overall
for
vaccination
were
variable
based
on
degrees
55.6%
C,
58.3%
D,
74.0%
A
80.1%
B.
highest
observed
followed
by
across
different
scenarios.
lowest
reported
low
(20%
effects),
scenario
(50%
efficacy).
revealed
potential
effect
intention
get
vaccination.
At
same
level,
higher
possibility
caused
large
drop
rate.
indicates
importance
accurate
communication
regarding
attitude
towards
intentions
vaccinated.
Regional
differences
Middle
East/North
showing
displaying
rates.
PLoS Computational Biology,
Journal Year:
2021,
Volume and Issue:
17(9), P. e1009288 - e1009288
Published: Sept. 2, 2021
Mass
vaccination
offers
a
promising
exit
strategy
for
the
COVID-19
pandemic.
However,
as
progresses,
demands
to
lift
restrictions
increase,
despite
most
of
population
remaining
susceptible.
Using
our
age-stratified
SEIRD-ICU
compartmental
model
and
curated
epidemiological
data,
we
quantified
rate
(relative
progress)
at
which
countries
can
non-pharmaceutical
interventions
without
overwhelming
their
healthcare
systems.
We
analyzed
scenarios
ranging
from
immediately
lifting
(accepting
high
mortality
morbidity)
reducing
case
numbers
level
where
test-trace-and-isolate
(TTI)
programs
efficiently
compensate
local
spreading
events.
In
general,
age-dependent
roll-out
implies
transient
decrease
more
than
ten
years
in
average
age
ICU
patients
deceased.
The
pace
determines
speed
restrictions;
Taking
European
Union
(EU)
an
example
case,
all
considered
allow
steadily
increasing
contacts
starting
May
2021
relaxing
by
autumn
2021.
Throughout
summer
2021,
only
mild
contact
will
remain
necessary.
vaccine
uptake
prevent
further
severe
waves.
Across
EU
countries,
seroprevalence
impacts
long-term
success
campaigns
strongly
demographics.
addition,
highlight
need
preventive
measures
reduce
contagion
school
settings
throughout
year
children
might
be
drivers
because
them
Strategies
that
maintain
low
numbers,
instead
ones,
infections
deaths
factors
eleven
five,
respectively.
policies
with
significantly
benefit
vaccination,
overall
reduction
susceptibility
diminish
viral
spread.
Keeping
is
safest
it
considerably
reduces
morbidity
better
preparedness
against
emerging
escape
or
contagious
virus
variants
while
still
allowing
higher
(freedom)
progressing
vaccinations.
Epidemics,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
38, P. 100546 - 100546
Published: Feb. 11, 2022
Mathematical
modelling
and
statistical
inference
provide
a
framework
to
evaluate
different
non-pharmaceutical
pharmaceutical
interventions
for
the
control
of
epidemics
that
has
been
widely
used
during
COVID-19
pandemic.
In
this
paper,
lessons
learned
from
previous
are
highlight
challenges
future
pandemic
control.
We
consider
availability
use
data,
as
well
need
correct
parameterisation
calibration
model
frameworks.
discuss
arise
in
describing
distinguishing
between
interventions,
within
structures,
allowing
both
host
dynamics.
also
health
economic
political
aspects
interventions.
Given
diversity
these
challenges,
broad
variety
interdisciplinary
expertise
is
needed
address
them,
combining
mathematical
knowledge
with
biological
social
insights,
including
economics
communication
skills.
Addressing
requires
strong
cross-disciplinary
collaboration
together
close
scientists
policy
makers.
Communications Medicine,
Journal Year:
2022,
Volume and Issue:
2(1)
Published: March 3, 2022
The
introduction
of
COVID-19
vaccination
passes
(VPs)
by
many
countries
coincided
with
the
Delta
variant
fast
becoming
dominant
across
Europe.
A
thorough
assessment
their
impact
on
epidemic
dynamics
is
still
lacking.
Here,
we
propose
VAP-SIRS
model
that
considers
possibly
lower
restrictions
for
VP
holders
than
rest
population,
imperfect
effectiveness
against
infection,
rates
(re-)vaccination
and
waning
immunity,
fraction
never-vaccinated,
increased
transmissibility
variant.
Some
predicted
scenarios
realistic
parameter
values
yield
new
infection
waves
within
two
years,
high
daily
case
numbers
in
endemic
state,
even
without
introducing
VPs
granting
more
freedom
to
holders.
Still,
suitable
adaptive
policies
can
avoid
unfavorable
outcomes.
While
could
initially
be
allowed
freedom,
lack
full
vaccine
will
require
accelerated
(re-)vaccination,
wide-spread
immunity
surveillance,
and/or
minimal
long-term
common
restrictions.