Estimating the population effectiveness of interventions against COVID-19 in France: A modelling study DOI Creative Commons
Iris Ganser, David L. Buckeridge, Jane M. Heffernan

et al.

Epidemics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 46, P. 100744 - 100744

Published: Feb. 2, 2024

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines have been widely used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, uncertainty persists regarding effectiveness of these due data quality issues, methodological challenges, differing contextual factors. Accurate estimation their effects is crucial for future epidemic preparedness. To address this, we developed a population-based mechanistic model that includes impact NPIs on SARS-CoV-2 transmission hospitalization rates. Our statistical approach estimated all parameters in one step, accurately propagating uncertainty. We fitted comprehensive epidemiological France from March 2020 October 2021. With same model, simulated scenarios vaccine rollout. The first lockdown was most effective, reducing by 84% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83-85). Subsequent lockdowns had diminished (reduction 74% (69-77) 11% (9-18), respectively). A 6 pm curfew more effective than at 8 (68% (66-69) vs. 48% (45-49) reduction), while school closures reduced 15% (12-18). In scenario without before November 2021, predicted 159,000 or 194% prediction (PI) 74-424) deaths 1,488,000 340% (136-689) hospitalizations. If available after 100 days, over 71,000 (16,507-204,249) 384,000 (88,579-1,020,386) hospitalizations could averted. results highlight substantial NPIs, including curfews, controlling also demonstrate value days objective Coalition Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) initiative availability.

Language: Английский

COVID-19 vaccination during pregnancy: coverage and safety DOI Creative Commons
Helena Blakeway, Smriti Prasad, Erkan Kalafat

et al.

American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 226(2), P. 236.e1 - 236.e14

Published: Aug. 10, 2021

Language: Английский

Citations

343

Systematic review and meta-analysis of the effectiveness and perinatal outcomes of COVID-19 vaccination in pregnancy DOI Creative Commons
Smriti Prasad, Erkan Kalafat, Helena Blakeway

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: May 10, 2022

Safety and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines during pregnancy is a particular concern affecting vaccination uptake by this vulnerable group. Here we evaluated evidence from 23 studies including 117,552 vaccinated pregnant people, almost exclusively with mRNA vaccines. We show that the against RT-PCR confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection 7 days after second dose was 89·5% (95% CI 69·0-96·4%, 18,828 I

Language: Английский

Citations

237

Main protease mutants of SARS-CoV-2 variants remain susceptible to nirmatrelvir DOI
Sven Ullrich,

Kasuni B. Ekanayake,

Gottfried Otting

et al.

Bioorganic & Medicinal Chemistry Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 62, P. 128629 - 128629

Published: Feb. 16, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

182

Controlling the pandemic during the SARS-CoV-2 vaccination rollout DOI Creative Commons
João Viana, Christiaan H. van Dorp, Ana Nunes

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: June 16, 2021

There is a consensus that mass vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 will ultimately end the COVID-19 pandemic. However, it not clear when and which control measures can be relaxed during rollout of programmes. We investigate relaxation scenarios using an age-structured transmission model has been fitted to age-specific seroprevalence data, hospital admissions, projected coverage for Portugal. Our analyses suggest pressing need restart socioeconomic activities could lead new pandemic waves, substantial efforts prove necessary throughout 2021. Using knowledge on introduced in 2020, we anticipate relaxing completely or extent as autumn 2020 launch wave starting April Additional waves prevented altogether if are summer step-wise manner discuss at point would achieved each scenario.

Language: Английский

Citations

128

Determinants of COVID-19 Vaccine Acceptance among the Adult Population of Bangladesh Using the Health Belief Model and the Theory of Planned Behavior Model DOI Creative Commons
Muhammad Mainuddin Patwary, Mondira Bardhan, Asma Safia Disha

et al.

Vaccines, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 9(12), P. 1393 - 1393

Published: Nov. 25, 2021

Vaccination is undoubtedly one of the most effective strategies to halt COVID-19 pandemic. The current study aimed investigate acceptance vaccination and its associated factors using two health behavior change frameworks: Health Belief Model (HBM) Theory Planned Behavior (TPB). A total 639 Bangladeshi adults (mean age: 24 years) participated in a cross-sectional online between July August 2021. questionnaire covered questions regarding vaccine intentions, sociodemographic features, status, perceived trust in/satisfaction with authorities, reasons for hesitancy, related frameworks. Hierarchical logistic regression was employed determine associations these predictors acceptance. intention get expressed among 85% participants. In fully adjusted models, students respondents more normal body weights reported higher intentions vaccinated. Respondents were also likely seek if they greater levels susceptibility, benefits, cues action, as well lower barriers self-efficacy. Fear future side effects common reason hesitancy by 94% vaccine-hesitant respondents. These should be considered authorities Bangladesh perhaps other countries when addressing plateauing rates many populations.

Language: Английский

Citations

114

Herd immunity thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 estimated from unfolding epidemics DOI Creative Commons
Ricardo Águas, Guilherme Gonçalves, Marcelo U. Ferreira

et al.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: July 24, 2020

Variation in individual susceptibility or frequency of exposure to infection accelerates the rate at which populations acquire immunity by natural infection. Individuals that are more susceptible frequently exposed tend be infected earlier and hence quickly selected out pool, decelerating incidence new infections as epidemic progresses. Eventually, numbers become low enough prevent growth or, other words, herd threshold (HIT) is reached. We have recently proposed a method whereby mathematical models, with gamma distributions SARS-CoV-2, fitted curves estimate coefficients variation among epidemiological parameters interest. In initial study we estimated HIT around 25-29% for original Wuhan virus England Scotland. Here explore limits applicability using Spain Portugal case studies. Results robust consistent Scotland, Spain, but fail due particularities dataset. describe failures, identify their causes, propose methodological extensions.

Language: Английский

Citations

105

Acceptance of COVID-19 vaccination at different hypothetical efficacy and safety levels in ten countries in Asia, Africa, and South America DOI Creative Commons
Francesco Rosiello, Samsul Anwar, Amanda Yufika

et al.

Narra J, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 1(3)

Published: Dec. 1, 2021

Vaccine hesitancy, defined as the reluctance or rejection in receiving a vaccine despite its availability, represents major challenge to global health efforts aiming control ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding possible factors correlated with hesitancy using refined well-informed approach can be helpful address phenomenon. The current study aimed evaluate acceptance rates four hypothetical scenarios of varying levels efficacy and safety profiles ten Asian, African South American countries. These included: 95% 20% side effects (Vaccine A), 75% 5% B); C) 50% D). This used self-administered online survey that was distributed during February–May 2021. total number respondents 1337 countries residence follows: India (21.1%), Pakistan (12.9%), Sudan (11.2%), Nigeria (9.3%), Iran (8.2%), Bangladesh Brazil (7.9%), Chile (7.7%), Tunisia (7.6%), Egypt (6.2%). overall for vaccination were variable based on degrees 55.6% C, 58.3% D, 74.0% A 80.1% B. highest observed followed by across different scenarios. lowest reported low (20% effects), scenario (50% efficacy). revealed potential effect intention get vaccination. At same level, higher possibility caused large drop rate. indicates importance accurate communication regarding attitude towards intentions vaccinated. Regional differences Middle East/North showing displaying rates.

Language: Английский

Citations

80

Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves DOI Creative Commons
Simon Bauer, Sebastián Contreras, Jonas Dehning

et al.

PLoS Computational Biology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 17(9), P. e1009288 - e1009288

Published: Sept. 2, 2021

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological data, we quantified rate (relative progress) at which countries can non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting (accepting high mortality morbidity) reducing case numbers level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate local spreading events. In general, age-dependent roll-out implies transient decrease more than ten years in average age ICU patients deceased. The pace determines speed restrictions; Taking European Union (EU) an example case, all considered allow steadily increasing contacts starting May 2021 relaxing by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact will remain necessary. vaccine uptake prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts long-term success campaigns strongly demographics. addition, highlight need preventive measures reduce contagion school settings throughout year children might be drivers because them Strategies that maintain low numbers, instead ones, infections deaths factors eleven five, respectively. policies with significantly benefit vaccination, overall reduction susceptibility diminish viral spread. Keeping is safest it considerably reduces morbidity better preparedness against emerging escape or contagious virus variants while still allowing higher (freedom) progressing vaccinations.

Language: Английский

Citations

67

Challenges for modelling interventions for future pandemics DOI Creative Commons
Mirjam Kretzschmar, Ben Ashby, Elizabeth Fearon

et al.

Epidemics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 38, P. 100546 - 100546

Published: Feb. 11, 2022

Mathematical modelling and statistical inference provide a framework to evaluate different non-pharmaceutical pharmaceutical interventions for the control of epidemics that has been widely used during COVID-19 pandemic. In this paper, lessons learned from previous are highlight challenges future pandemic control. We consider availability use data, as well need correct parameterisation calibration model frameworks. discuss arise in describing distinguishing between interventions, within structures, allowing both host dynamics. also health economic political aspects interventions. Given diversity these challenges, broad variety interdisciplinary expertise is needed address them, combining mathematical knowledge with biological social insights, including economics communication skills. Addressing requires strong cross-disciplinary collaboration together close scientists policy makers.

Language: Английский

Citations

62

Risk assessment of COVID-19 epidemic resurgence in relation to SARS-CoV-2 variants and vaccination passes DOI Creative Commons
Tyll Krueger, Krzysztof Gogolewski, Marcin Bodych

et al.

Communications Medicine, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 2(1)

Published: March 3, 2022

The introduction of COVID-19 vaccination passes (VPs) by many countries coincided with the Delta variant fast becoming dominant across Europe. A thorough assessment their impact on epidemic dynamics is still lacking. Here, we propose VAP-SIRS model that considers possibly lower restrictions for VP holders than rest population, imperfect effectiveness against infection, rates (re-)vaccination and waning immunity, fraction never-vaccinated, increased transmissibility variant. Some predicted scenarios realistic parameter values yield new infection waves within two years, high daily case numbers in endemic state, even without introducing VPs granting more freedom to holders. Still, suitable adaptive policies can avoid unfavorable outcomes. While could initially be allowed freedom, lack full vaccine will require accelerated (re-)vaccination, wide-spread immunity surveillance, and/or minimal long-term common restrictions.

Language: Английский

Citations

46