Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion DOI Creative Commons
Catherine M. Albright, Debra Van Egeren, Aditya Thakur

et al.

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(10), P. e0292099 - e0292099

Published: Oct. 18, 2023

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has ushered in a volatile era viral immune evasion rather than much-heralded stability “endemicity” or “herd immunity.” At this point, an array strains rendered essentially all monoclonal antibody therapeutics obsolete and strongly undermined impact vaccinal immunity on transmission. In work, we demonstrate that escape resulting pre-existing is highly evolutionarily favored likely to cause waves short-term long-term, invading induce weak cross-immunity against may co-circulate with those strains. This would result formation serotypes increase disease burden, complicate control, raise potential for increases virulence. Less durable does not drive positive selection as trait, but such transmit at high levels if they establish. Overall, our results draw attention importance inter-strain driver trends early data predict trajectory pandemic.

Language: Английский

The gray swan: model-based assessment of the risk of sudden failure of hybrid immunity to SARS-CoV-2 DOI Creative Commons
Madison Stoddard, Yuan Lin, Sharanya Sarkar

et al.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 1, 2023

Abstract In the fourth year of COVID-19 pandemic, public health authorities worldwide have adopted a strategy learning to live with SARS-CoV-2. This has involved removal measures for limiting viral spread, resulting in large burden recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections. Crucial managing this is concept so-called wall hybrid immunity, through repeated reinfections and vaccine boosters, reduce risk severe disease death. Protection against both infection provided by induction neutralizing antibodies (nAbs) However, pharmacokinetic (PK) waning rapid evolution degrade nAb binding titers. The recent emergence variants strongly immune evasive potential vaccinal natural responses raises question whether population-level immunity can be maintained face jumps potency. Here we use an agent-based simulation address question. Our findings suggest may cause failure population sudden increases mortality. As rise mortality will only become apparent weeks following wave disease, reactive strategies not able provide meaningful mitigation. Learning virus could thus lead death tolls very little warning. work points importance proactive management ongoing need multifactorial approaches control.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Endemicity is not a victory: the unmitigated downside risks of widespread SARS-CoV-2 transmission DOI Creative Commons
Madison Stoddard, Alexander Novokhodko, Sharanya Sarkar

et al.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 30, 2022

Abstract We have entered a new phase of the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, as strategy relying solely on current SARS-CoV-2 vaccines to bring pandemic an end has become infeasible. In response, public-health authorities in many countries advocated for using limit morbidity and mortality while permitting unchecked spread (“learning live with disease”). The feasibility this is critically dependent infection fatality rate (IFR) COVID-19. An expectation exists, both lay public scientific community, that future waves virus will exhibit decreased IFR, either due viral attenuation or progressive buildup immunity. work, we examine basis expectation, assessing impact virulence transmission. Our findings suggest large increases would result minimal loss transmission, implying IFR may be free increase decrease under neutral evolutionary drift. further effect changes steady-state death toll conditions endemic modeling suggests implies vast transmission resulting yearly US tolls numbering hundreds thousands plausible scenarios, even modest leading unsustainable burden. thus highlight critical importance enacting concerted (involving example global access vaccines, therapeutics, prophylactics nonpharmaceutical interventions) suppress thereby reducing risk catastrophic outcomes. also continued investment novel biomedical interventions prevent

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Segurança alimentar e nutricional em tempos de COVID-19: uma revisão bibliográfica DOI Open Access
Rônia Kreyce dos Santos Silva, Isabela Martins Silveira, Simone Gonçalves de Almeida

et al.

Research Society and Development, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 11(3), P. e59911326895 - e59911326895

Published: March 8, 2022

Este trabalho analisou a situação da Insegurança Alimentar e Nutricional durante pandemia de COVID-19, comparando o Brasil com outros países que adotaram medidas semelhantes ajuda às populações mais vulneráveis. Analisou ainda consumo alimentos ultraprocessados também as implicações nutricionais uma má alimentação pode causar à saúde quem os consome. Ainda, impacto falta diversidade na obtenção dos micronutrientes. Tratou-se revisão bibliográfica cuja base pesquisa foram SCIELO, PUBMED BVS, além legislações estudos pertinentes ao assunto. Os artigos analisados partir seguintes critérios: empíricos observacionais, revisões sistemáticas. Apesar vários países, incluindo Brasil, terem oferecido população vulnerável, tais não suficientes para conter aumento famílias vivendo em insegurança alimentar, agravou cujo nível alimentar já era alto.

Citations

1
What is the current state of public health system preparedness for infectious disease emergencies? A scoping review DOI Creative Commons
Jessica M. Lee,

Rachel Jansen,

Kate E Sanderson

et al.

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Oct. 26, 2022

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic continues to demonstrate the risks and profound health impacts that result from infectious disease emergencies. Emergency preparedness has been defined as knowledge, capacity organizational systems governments, response recovery organizations, communities individuals develop anticipate, respond to, or recover This scoping review explored recent literature on priority areas indicators for public emergency (PHEP) with a focus Methods Using methodology, comprehensive search was conducted indexed grey records published 2017 2020 onward, respectively. Records were included if they: a) described PHEP, b) focused an emergency, c) in Organization Economic Co-operation Development country. An evidence-based all-hazards Resilience Framework PHEP consisting of 11 elements used reference point identify additional have emerged publications. findings summarized thematically. Results publications largely aligned PHEP. In particular, related collaborative networks, community engagement, risk analysis communication frequently observed across this review. Emergent themes identified expand These mitigating inequities, capacities (vaccination, laboratory system capacity, infection prevention control financial investment infrastructure, legislation, phases preparedness), scientific (research evidence-informed decision making, climate environmental health), considerations capacity. Conclusions contribute evolving understanding critical actions; however, there paucity evidence indicators. can outlined specifically relevant emergencies risks. Further research will be important validate these findings, how refinements frameworks support practice.

Language: Английский

Citations

1
Antibody escape, the risk of serotype formation, and rapid immune waning: Modeling the implications of SARS-CoV-2 immune evasion DOI Creative Commons
Catherine M. Albright, Debra Van Egeren, Aditya Thakur

et al.

PLoS ONE, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(10), P. e0292099 - e0292099

Published: Oct. 18, 2023

As the COVID-19 pandemic progresses, widespread community transmission of SARS-CoV-2 has ushered in a volatile era viral immune evasion rather than much-heralded stability “endemicity” or “herd immunity.” At this point, an array strains rendered essentially all monoclonal antibody therapeutics obsolete and strongly undermined impact vaccinal immunity on transmission. In work, we demonstrate that escape resulting pre-existing is highly evolutionarily favored likely to cause waves short-term long-term, invading induce weak cross-immunity against may co-circulate with those strains. This would result formation serotypes increase disease burden, complicate control, raise potential for increases virulence. Less durable does not drive positive selection as trait, but such transmit at high levels if they establish. Overall, our results draw attention importance inter-strain driver trends early data predict trajectory pandemic.

Language: Английский

Citations

0