Estimating the population effectiveness of interventions against COVID-19 in France: A modelling study

Epidemics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 46, P. 100744 - 100744

Published: Feb. 2, 2024

Non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccines have been widely used to manage the COVID-19 pandemic. However, uncertainty persists regarding effectiveness of these due data quality issues, methodological challenges, differing contextual factors. Accurate estimation their effects is crucial for future epidemic preparedness. To address this, we developed a population-based mechanistic model that includes impact NPIs on SARS-CoV-2 transmission hospitalization rates. Our statistical approach estimated all parameters in one step, accurately propagating uncertainty. We fitted comprehensive epidemiological France from March 2020 October 2021. With same model, simulated scenarios vaccine rollout. The first lockdown was most effective, reducing by 84% (95% confidence interval (CI) 83-85). Subsequent lockdowns had diminished (reduction 74% (69-77) 11% (9-18), respectively). A 6 pm curfew more effective than at 8 (68% (66-69) vs. 48% (45-49) reduction), while school closures reduced 15% (12-18). In scenario without before November 2021, predicted 159,000 or 194% prediction (PI) 74-424) deaths 1,488,000 340% (136-689) hospitalizations. If available after 100 days, over 71,000 (16,507-204,249) 384,000 (88,579-1,020,386) hospitalizations could averted. results highlight substantial NPIs, including curfews, controlling also demonstrate value days objective Coalition Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) initiative availability.

Language: Английский

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COVID-19 Vaccines in Older Adults

Clinics in Geriatric Medicine, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 38(3), P. 605 - 620

Published: March 21, 2022

Language: Английский

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Modelling SARS-CoV-2 Binding Antibody Waning 8 Months after BNT162b2 Vaccination

Vaccines, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(2), P. 285 - 285

Published: Feb. 13, 2022

Several lines of evidence suggest that binding SARS-CoV-2 antibodies such as anti-SARS-CoV-2 RBD IgG (anti-RBD) and neutralising (NA) are correlates protection against SARS-CoV-2, the correlation anti-RBD NA is very high. The effectiveness (VE) BNT162b2 in preventing infection wanes over time, this reduction mainly associated with waning immunity, suggesting kinetics might be interest to predict VE. In a study 97 health care workers (HCWs) vaccinated vaccine, we assessed 30-250 days after vaccination using 388 individually matched plasma samples. Anti-RBD levels declined by 85%, 92%, 95% at 4th, 6th, 8th month from peak, respectively. were estimated trajectories various models. restricted cubic splines model had better fit observed data. declines statistically significantly lower for risk factors severe COVID-19 absence side effects. Moreover, previous was divergent consistent slower decline time. These results may serve harbinger vaccine (VE), it should explored predictor breakthrough infections

Language: Английский

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Mitigating co-circulation of seasonal influenza and COVID-19 pandemic in the presence of vaccination: A mathematical modeling approach

Frontiers in Public Health, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Jan. 4, 2023

The co-circulation of two respiratory infections with similar symptoms in a population can significantly overburden healthcare system by slowing the testing and treatment. persistent emergence contagious variants SARS-CoV-2, along imperfect vaccines their waning protections, have increased likelihood new COVID-19 outbreaks taking place during typical flu season. Here, we developed mathematical model for dynamics influenza, under different scenarios influenza vaccine coverage, booster coverage efficacy, capacity. We investigated required minimal optimal (third) fourth doses, conjunction vaccine, to avoid coincidence infection peaks both diseases single show that delay brought on high number cases impacts transmission. earlier peak season greater flu-like symptoms, risk transmission, which slows down testing, resulting complete isolation patients who not been isolated before clinical presentation continuing normal daily activities. Furthermore, our simulations stress importance uptake preventing infection, severe illness, hospitalization at individual level disease outbreak control putting strain already weak overwhelmed systems. As such, ensuring reduce burden these is paramount. showed keeping about 35% increasing or dose only reduces but also its time. If 55%, unexpectedly, it increases size slightly, while as well delays diseases. Mask-wearing coupled moderate increase may mitigate prevent an outbreak.

Language: Английский

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Effectiveness of Pfizer/BioNTech and Sinopharm COVID-19 vaccines in reducing hospital admissions in prince Hamza hospital, Jordan

Frontiers in Public Health, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: Sept. 21, 2022

Background There is a need to establish the effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccines in reducing COVID-19-related hopitalization patients Jordan. As vaccination program accelerates, it important determine whether vaccines' (VE) has successfully reduced number acute cases admitted hospital. Methods To efficacy Pfizer-BioNTech and Sinopharm COVID-19 among Jordanian Prince Hamza hospital, single center case-control study was performed. The analyzed hospitalization rates vaccinated ( n = 536) unvaccinated 585) individuals across 2-month period from February 6 April 6, 2022. were who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 (“case-patients”), whilst control group hospital did not test (“control-patients”). Results This found that 1,121 total participants (561 560 control), overall vaccine 84% (95% Cl 79–88%). VE higher females (88%, 95% 84–93%) than males (77%, 67–84%) p < 0.001), highest those between ages 18 28-years-old (95%, CI 86–98%). For with pre-existing conditions, including chronic heart disease, lung diabetes, compared no comorbidities, though difference statistically significant. Finally, comparing all participants, received Pfizer (VE 92%, 88–94%) (OR 0.08, 0.06–0.12) 67%, 52–78%) 0.33, 0.22–0.48); 0.011). Conclusion Overall, be effective limiting hospitalizations adult's patient's cohort 2022, especially comorbidities.

Language: Английский

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Booster Doses and Prioritizing Lives Saved

New England Journal of Medicine, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 385(26), P. 2476 - 2477

Published: Dec. 8, 2021

Language: Английский

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Anti-SARS-CoV-2 IgM Secondary Response Was Suppressed by Preexisting Immunity in Vaccinees: A Prospective, Longitudinal Cohort Study over 456 Days

Vaccines, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(1), P. 188 - 188

Published: Jan. 16, 2023

To obtain more insight into IgM in anti-SARS-CoV-2 immunity a prospective cohort study was carried out 32 volunteers to longitudinally profile the kinetics of response induced by administration three-dose inactivated SARS-CoV-2 vaccine regimen at 19 serial time points over 456 days. The first and second doses were considered primary immunization, while third dose secondary immunization. antibodies showed low that different from other three (neutralizing, total, IgG antibodies). There 31.25% (10/32) (95% CI, 14.30-48.20%) participants who never achieved positive antibody conversion days after vaccination. seropositivity rate 68.75% (22/32) 51.80-85.70%) Unexpectedly, immunization only 9.38% (3/32) 1.30-20.10%), which much lower than (p = 0.000). Spearman's correlation analysis indicated poor with antibodies. vaccinees completely patterns neutralizing, following both suppressed pre-existing

Language: Английский

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The impact of COVID-19 vaccination in prisons in England and Wales: a metapopulation model

BMC Public Health, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 22(1)

Published: May 18, 2022

Abstract Background High incidence of cases and deaths due to coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in prisons worldwide. This study aimed evaluate the impact different COVID-19 vaccination strategies epidemiologically semi-enclosed settings such as prisons, where staff interact regularly with those incarcerated wider community. Methods We used a metapopulation transmission-dynamic model local prison England Wales. Two-dose included no vaccination, all individuals who are and/or staff, an age-based approach. Outcomes were quantified terms COVID-19-related symptomatic cases, losses quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), deaths. Results Compared vaccinating people living working reduced QALY loss over one-year period by 41%, 32% 36% respectively. However, if vaccine introduction was delayed until start outbreak, negligible. Vaccinating 50 years old averted one death for every 104 courses administered. All-staff-only up 5%. Increasing coverage from 30 90% among around percentage points. Conclusions The highly dependent on early rapid delivery. If administered both prior outbreak occurring, vaccines could substantially reduce morbidity mortality settings.

Language: Английский

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Population immunity of natural infection, primary-series vaccination, and booster vaccination in Qatar during the COVID-19 pandemic: An observational study

medRxiv (Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory), Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: April 29, 2023

Summary Background Waning of natural infection protection and vaccine highlight the need to evaluate changes in population immunity over time. Population previous SARS-CoV-2 or COVID-19 vaccination are defined, respectively, as overall against reinfection breakthrough at a given point time population. Methods We estimated these immunities Qatar’s between July 1, 2020 November 30, 2022, discern generic features epidemiology SARS-CoV-2. Effectiveness infection, mRNA primary-series vaccination, booster (third-dose) preventing were estimated, month by month, using matched, test-negative, case-control studies. Findings Previous-infection effectiveness was strong before emergence Omicron, but declined with after wave rebounded new wave. dropped immediately Omicron from 88.3% (95% CI: 84.8-91.0%) 2021 51.0% 48.3-53.6%) December 2021. Primary-series 84.0% 83.0-85.0%) April 2021, soon introduction waning gradually 52.7% 46.5-58.2%) linearly ∼1 percentage every 5 days. After emergence, suddenly negligible levels Booster 83.0% 65.6 -91.6%) 32.9% 26.7-38.5%) continued decline thereafter. severe, critical, fatal generally >80% throughout study duration. Interpretation High may not be sustained beyond year. This creates fertile grounds for repeated waves occur, increasingly exhibit benign pattern infection. Funding The Biomedical Research Program Biostatistics, Epidemiology, Biomathematics Core, both Weill Cornell Medicine-Qatar, Ministry Public Health, Hamad Medical Corporation, Sidra Medicine, Qatar Genome Programme, University Center, Internal Grant ID QUCG-CAS-23/24-114. context Evidence this induces reinfection, wanes since last Similarly, induce also dose. These patterns demonstrate concept track evolution immune specific country can defined full national A search PubMed, Google Scholar, International Vaccine Access Center’s VIEW-hub databases up 21, 2023 keywords “vaccination”, “infection”, “immunity”, “protection”, “SARS-CoV-2”, “COVID-19” did identify studies that investigated epidemiological pandemic. Added value analyzed federated Qatar, experienced dominated different pre-Omicron variants subvariants. Using test-negative design, each characterized level two calendar years three forms showed rapid variation driven protection. Vaccine-derived 1 absolute immensely reduced within one about 50 points. Meanwhile, previous-infection severe durable slow even emergence. Implications all available evidence Both vary rapidly creating occur months other. more than year so. Preventing infection/reinfection, transmission, future cannot sustainably done current vaccines nor entire being infected. Timely administration boosters those vulnerable remain essential come. Repeated facilitate further virus continual evasion. Emergence variant is substantially circulating reduce leading large epidemic waves. However, durability will likely curtail severity

Language: Английский

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Covid-19 Rates by Time since Vaccination during Delta Variant Predominance

NEJM Evidence, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 1(3)

Published: Dec. 22, 2021

With the emergence of delta variant, United States experienced a rapid increase in Covid-19 cases 2021. We estimated risk breakthrough infection and death by month vaccination as proxy for waning immunity during period variant predominance.Covid-19 case data from 15 U.S. jurisdictions January 3 to September 4, 2021 were used estimate weekly hazard rates among fully vaccinated persons, stratified age group vaccine product. Case August 1 presented across four cohorts defined vaccination. Poisson models adjusted rate ratios comparing earlier July rates.During 2021, per 100,000 person-weeks all recipients February, March April, May June, 168.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 167.5 170.1), 123.5 CI, 122.8 124.1), 83.6 82.9 84.3), 63.1 61.6 64.6), respectively. Similar trends observed BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech) mRNA-1273 (Moderna) recipients. Rates Ad26.COV2.S (Janssen-Johnson & Johnson) higher; however, inconsistent. 65 years or older had higher those year. Protection against was sustained Across groups types, people who 6 months ago longer (January-February) 3.44 (3.36 3.53) times more likely be infected 1.70 (1.29 2.23) die COVID-19 than recently 2021.Our study suggests that protection SARS-CoV-2 ages adults waned with increasing time since predominance. These results add evidence base supports booster recommendations, especially vaccine. (Funded Centers Disease Control Prevention.).

Language: Английский

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