A multi-stage forecasting system for daily ocean tidal energy based on secondary decomposition, optimized gate recurrent unit and error correction

Journal of Cleaner Production, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 449, P. 141303 - 141303

Published: March 12, 2024

Language: Английский

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The Global Drivers of Chronic Coastal Flood Hazards Under Sea‐Level Rise

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 11(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2023

Abstract We present the first global estimates of annual average exceedances contemporary minor, moderate, and major flood levels under sea‐level rise (SLR). Applying established methods, we show that minor flooding will occur most days worldwide 0.7 m SLR. Moderate occurs at same frequency 1.0 Local regional differences in threshold elevations, tidal ranges, non‐tidal variability lead to SLR required for this chronic emerge. Lower thresholds, smaller larger extreme skew surges mean can emerge with less discuss several implications these findings coastal hazard assessments. First, tide‐driven water level dominates weather‐driven when determining locations' propensities frequent Second, centimeter‐accurate information is necessary accurately estimate future hazards. Third, locations floods may not be those have develop Rapid Assessment Framework Frequent Flood Transitions (RAFFFTS) apply previously considered studies. RAFFFTS robustly identify potential hotspots using only 1‐year observational records. anticipate a valuable tool identifying risk SLR, complementing existing tools changes episodic floods.

Language: Английский

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Improved capabilities of global ocean reanalyses for analysing sea level variability near the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico Coastal U.S.

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: Feb. 22, 2024

Realistic representation of monthly sea level anomalies in coastal regions has been a challenge for global ocean reanalyses. This is especially the case where levels are influenced by western boundary currents such as near U.S. Atlantic Coast and Gulf Mexico. For these regions, most reanalyses compare poorly to observations. Problems include errors data assimilation horizontal resolutions that too coarse simulate energetic like Stream Loop Current System. However, model capabilities advancing with improved higher resolution. Here, we show some current-generation produce skill when compared satellite altimetry observations surface heights. Using tide gauge verification, find highest associated GLORYS12 HYCOM Both systems assimilate have eddy-resolving (1/12°). We found less three other (ACCESS-S2, ORAS5, ORAP6) coarser, though still eddy-permitting, (1/4°). The operational reanalysis from ECMWF (ORAS5) their pilot (ORAP6) provide an interesting comparison because latter assimilates globally more weight, well assimilating over continental shelves. attributes many gauges. also assessed older (CFSR), which lowest likely due its lower resolution (1/2°) lack assimilation. ACCESS-S2 likewise does not altimetry, although much better than CFSR only somewhat ORAS5. Since flooding anomalies, recent development skilful on timescales may be useful understanding physical processes flood risks.

Language: Английский

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Impact assessment of sea level rise-induced high tide flooding and socioeconomic losses in a highly vulnerable coastal region

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 55, P. 101921 - 101921

Published: Aug. 2, 2024

Language: Английский

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The effect of tidal range and mean sea-level changes on coastal flood hazards at Lakes Entrance, south-east Australia

Journal of Southern Hemisphere Earth System Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 73(2), P. 116 - 130

Published: May 24, 2023

Despite being well-documented in other countries, the roles that anthropogenically induced changes and natural variability tidal processes play modulating coastal flood frequencies have not been investigated Australia. Here we conduct a brief assessment of around We then apply simple attribution framework to quantify separate joint effects range increasing relative mean sea level on nuisance frequency at location with largest range, Lakes Entrance, Victoria. To understand how these affect hazards, consider threshold based recent impact surveys. Results show increases heights high tides over years exerted large influence frequencies. These are potentially linked channel dredging regimes. 93% days since 2009 would occurred without or coincident level. demonstrate importance considering estuarine hazard assessments for future planning, even if do represent substantial threat today. discuss implications this study work hazards benefits impact-based thresholds such hazards.

Language: Английский

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Implications of Variability and Trends in Coastal Extreme Water Levels

Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 51(14)

Published: July 22, 2024

Abstract Probabilities of coastal extreme water levels (EWLs) are increasing as sea rise. Using a time‐dependent statistical model on tide gauge data along U.S. and Pacific Basin coastlines, we show that EWL probability distributions also shift an annual basis from climate forcing long‐period tidal cycles. In some regions, combined variability (>15 cm) can be large or larger than the amount level rise (SLR) experienced over past 30 years projected next years. Considering SLR by 2050 at location like La Jolla, California suggests moderate‐level (damaging) flood today with 50‐year return (2% chance) would occur about 3–4 times year during El Nino nearing peak nodal cycle. If interannual is overlooked, related impacts could more severe anticipated based solely upon decadal‐scale projections.

Language: Английский

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Chronic flooding events due to sea-level rise in French Guiana

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Dec. 7, 2023

Abstract As sea levels are rising, the number of chronic flooding events at high tide is increasing across world coastlines. Yet, many reported so far either lack observational evidence flooding, or relate to coastal areas where ground subsidence oceanic processes often enhance climate change-induced sea-level rise (SLR). Here we present and modelling high-tide that unlikely occur without SLR in French Guiana, rates close global average there no significant subsidence. In particular, on 16 October 2020, a well-documented event happened Cayenne under calm weather conditions. Our probabilistic assessment daily maximum water superimposed shows this can be modelled consequence SLR. will continue rise, show number, severity extent such increase several urban with an evolution depending topography. concerns growing regarding economic impacts adaptation challenges world, our study provides new early impact emerging now.

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the Benefits of Altimetry Assimilation in Seasonal Forecasts of the Upper Ocean

Journal of Geophysical Research Oceans, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 128(5)

Published: April 21, 2023

Abstract Satellite altimetry measurements of sea surface height provide near‐global ocean state observations on sub‐monthly time scales, which are not always utilized by seasonal climate forecasting systems. As early as the mid‐1990s, attempts were made to assimilate initialize models. These experiments demonstrated improved skill, especially compared that did subsurface temperature information. Nowadays, some operational models utilize in their assimilation systems, whereas others do not. Here, we assess impact prediction skill variables two systems from European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (SEAS5) and Australian Bureau Meteorology (ACCESS‐S). We show assimilating improves initialization temperatures, well forecasts monthly variability upper‐ocean heat content level. Skill improvements largest subtropics, where there typically less available forecasts. In tropics, no noticeable forecast skill. The positive related does seem affect predictions temperature. Whether this is because current close potential predictability limit surface, or perhaps fully exploited, remains a question. summary, find utilizing overall global at least

Language: Английский

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The Influence of Future Changes in Tidal Range, Storm Surge, and Mean Sea Level on the Emergence of Chronic Flooding

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(2)

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

Abstract Sea‐level rise is leading to increasingly frequent coastal floods globally. Recent research shows that changes in tidal properties and storm surge magnitudes can further exacerbate sea‐level rise‐related increases flood frequencies. However, such non‐stationarity tide statistics are largely neglected existing projection methodologies. Here we develop a framework explore the effect different realizations of various sources uncertainty have on projections frequencies, including range storminess. Our methodology captures how observed rates depend surges coincide with extremes. We show higher earlier emergence chronic flooding associated larger rates, lower thresholds, skew magnitudes. Smaller thresholds decreases sea level variability lead commensurately rates. Percentagewise, amplitudes generally much impact frequencies than equivalent percentagewise several implications these findings. Firstly, understanding future local tides required fully quantify hazards. Secondly, hazard assessments may underestimate as not considered. Finally, identifying severities relevant managers imperative useable policy‐relevant for decisionmakers.

Language: Английский

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High tide flooding: Drivers, risk assessment, and prediction

地理科学进展, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 43(1), P. 190 - 202

Published: Jan. 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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