How Well Does the ERA5 Reanalysis Capture the Extreme Climate Events Over China? Part II: Extreme Temperature DOI Creative Commons
Wanling Xu, Xiangyong Lei,

Shiting Chen

et al.

Frontiers in Environmental Science, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10

Published: June 27, 2022

The fifth-generation atmospheric reanalysis of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ERA5) is latest product. However, reliability ERA5 to capture extreme temperatures still unclear over China. Hence, based on conventional meteorological station data, a new criterion (DISO) was used validate capturing temperature indices derived from Expert Team Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) across six subregions China different timescales. conclusions are as follows: original daily (mean temperature, maximum minimum temperature) can be well reproduced by tends exhibit more misdetection duration events than intensity frequency. In addition, performed best in summer worst winter, respectively. trend absolute (e.g., TXx TNx), percentile-based TX90p, TX10p, TN90p, TN10p), WSDI, CSDI, GSL) captured ERA5, but failed tendency diurnal range (DTR) Spatially, performs southeastern it remains challenging accurately recreate Tibetan Plateau. elevation difference between grid point contributes main bias temperatures. accuracy decreases with increase discrepancy.

Language: Английский

The most at-risk regions in the world for high-impact heatwaves DOI Creative Commons
Vikki Thompson, Dann Mitchell, Gabriele C. Hegerl

et al.

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: April 25, 2023

Abstract Heatwaves are becoming more frequent under climate change and can lead to thousands of excess deaths. Adaptation extreme weather events often occurs in response an event, with communities learning fast following unexpectedly impactful events. Using value statistics, here we show where regional temperature records statistically likely be exceeded, therefore might at-risk. In 31% regions examined, the observed daily maximum record is exceptional. Climate models suggest that similar behaviour occur any region. some regions, such as Afghanistan parts Central America, this a particular problem - not only have they potential for far heatwaves than experienced, but their population growing increasingly exposed because limited healthcare energy resources. We urge policy makers vulnerable consider if heat action plans sufficient what come.

Language: Английский

Citations

111
Evaluation of ERA5 and ERA5-Land reanalysis precipitation datasets over Spain (1951–2020) DOI Creative Commons
José Gomis-Cebolla, Viera Rattayová, Sergio Salazar-Galán

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 284, P. 106606 - 106606

Published: Jan. 4, 2023

Reanalysis precipitation estimates are widely used in the fields of meteorology and hydrology because they can provide physical, spatial, temporal coherent long time series at a global scale. Nevertheless, as pre-requisite for many applications their performance needs to be assessed. The objective this study was evaluate European Centre Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) latest fifth-generation reanalysis products, i.e., ERA5 ERA5-Land, country scale Spain. For doing so, we compared it against high-resolution product Spanish Meteorological Agency which spans approximately 70 years (1951–2020). A comprehensive assessment (continuous, categorical, probability distribution function (pdf), spatial pattern, trend) performed order ascertain quality products. Results analysis revealed general agreement between observations ERA5-Land/ERA5 estimates: spearman correlation values 0.5 0.9, Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) mostly 2 8 mm/d Kling Gupta Efficiency (KGE) >0.4. Categorical additionally indicated good (Heiken Skill score (HSS) score, also known kappa, 0.4 0.8). found dependent on climatic region, intensity orography. Correlation north-west (higher values) south-east (lower gradient while relative bias (RBIAS) RMSE patterns were positively correlated with slope (ρ = 0.41/0.35, 0.69/0.70, respectively). In addition, by categorical analysis, along Mediterranean coast wet (i.e., overestimation days precipitation) found. detection capacity (kappa) shown negative −0.29/−0.34). Worst model is obtained during summer months, generalized overestimation. pdf that tended overestimate light (≥1 < 5 mm/day), moderate (≥5 20 mm/day) categories underestimating heavy (≥20 40 violent (≥40 categories. Moderate provided best capacity, precipitation-intensity analysis. showed reproduce trends observations. ERA5-Land ERA5, different resolution, very similar all considered. northern highlighted most critical modelling purposes its performance.

Language: Английский

Citations

102
Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature-related mortality DOI Creative Commons
Malcolm Mistry, Rochelle Schneider, Pierre Masselot

et al.

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(1)

Published: March 25, 2022

Abstract Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, yet to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related at a global scale. Here we the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions assess most recent generation datasets impact assessments evaluate comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show last ERA5 products generally compare well station observations, similar risk estimates. However, offers some indication lower tropical regions, likely underestimation heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent valid source variables epidemiological risk.

Language: Английский

Citations

94
Determining the influence of meteorological, environmental, and anthropogenic activity variables on the atmospheric CO2 concentration in the arid and semi-arid regions: A case study in the Middle East DOI
Seyed Mohsen Mousavi, Naghmeh Mobarghaee Dinan,

Korous Khoshbakht

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown, P. 108009 - 108009

Published: Feb. 1, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

2
A Comparison of Moderate and Extreme ERA‐5 Daily Precipitation With Two Observational Data Sets DOI Creative Commons
Pauline Rivoire, Olivia Martius, Philippe Naveau

et al.

Earth and Space Science, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 8(4)

Published: April 1, 2021

Abstract A comparison of moderate to extreme daily precipitation from the ERA‐5 reanalysis by European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts against two observational gridded data sets, EOBS and CMORPH, is presented. We assess co‐occurrence days compare full distributions. The quantified hit rate. An extended generalized Pareto distribution (EGPD) fitted positive at every grid point confidence intervals quantiles compared. Kullback–Leibler divergence used quantify distance between entire EGPDs obtained observations. For exceeding local 90th percentile, mean rate 65% (over Europe) 60% CMORPH (globally). Generally, we find a decrease with increasing intensity. agreement weaker over southern Mediterranean region Iceland compared rest Europe. Differences are smallest oceans. largest NW America, Central Asia, land areas 15°S 15°N. on overlapping sets more than 80% points average. intensity comparisons indicate an excellent Germany, Ireland, Sweden, Finland, disagreement where uses sparse input stations. agree well midlatitudes disagree tropics.

Language: Английский

Citations

88
Reliability of the ERA5 in Replicating Mean and Extreme Temperatures across Europe DOI Open Access
Kondylia Velikou, Georgia Lazoglou, Κωνσταντία Τολίκα

et al.

Water, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(4), P. 543 - 543

Published: Feb. 11, 2022

ERA5 is widely considered as a valid proxy of observation at region scales. Surface air temperature from the E-OBS database and 196 meteorological stations across Europe are being applied for evaluation fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis data in period 1981–2010. In general, captures mean extreme temperatures very well reliable climate investigation over Europe. High correlations ranging 0.995 to 1.000 indicate that could capture annual cycle well. However, high biases Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) some European sub-regions (e.g., Alps, Mediterranean) reveal underestimates temperatures. The can be mainly attributed altitude differences between grid points stations. Comparing with other two datasets, presents more small outliers regions southern 40° latitude less areas Black Sea. Scandinavia, frequently than observational ones.

Language: Английский

Citations

59
Multivariate Bias‐Correction of High‐Resolution Regional Climate Change Simulations for West Africa: Performance and Climate Change Implications DOI Creative Commons
Diarra Dieng, Alex J. Cannon, Patrick Laux

et al.

Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 127(5)

Published: Feb. 13, 2022

Abstract A multivariate bias correction based on N‐dimensional probability density function transform (MBCn) technique is applied to four different high‐resolution regional climate change simulations and key meteorological variables, namely precipitation, mean near‐surface air temperature, maximum minimum surface downwelling solar radiation, relative humidity, wind speed. The impact of bias‐correction the historical (1980–2005) period, inter‐variable relationships, measures spatio‐temporal consistency are investigated. focus discrepancies between original bias‐corrected results over five agro‐ecological zones. We also evaluate relevant indices for agricultural applications such as extreme indices, under current future (2020–2050) conditions RCP4.5. Results show that MBCn successfully corrects seasonal biases in spatial patterns intensities all their intervariable correlation, distributions most analyzed variables. Relatively large reductions during period give indication possible benefits when scenarios. Although models do not agree same positive/negative sign seven variables grid points, model ensemble shows a statistically significant rainfall, humidity Northern zone speed Coastal West Africa increasing summer temperature up 2°C Sahara.

Language: Английский

Citations

50
Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) trends from land surface changes and air pollution policies in China during 1980–2020 DOI Creative Commons
Robabeh Yousefi, Abdallah Shaheen, Fang Wang

et al.

Journal of Environmental Management, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 326, P. 116847 - 116847

Published: Nov. 25, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

48
Assessing the use of ERA5-Land reanalysis and spatial interpolation methods for retrieving precipitation estimates at basin scale DOI
Giuseppe Longo-Minnolo, Daniela Vanella, Simona Consoli

et al.

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 271, P. 106131 - 106131

Published: March 8, 2022

Language: Английский

Citations

45
Propagation from meteorological to hydrological drought in the Horn of Africa using both standardized and threshold-based indices DOI Creative Commons
Rhoda A. Odongo, Hans de Moel, Anne F. Van Loon

et al.

Natural hazards and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 23(6), P. 2365 - 2386

Published: June 28, 2023

Abstract. There have been numerous drought propagation studies in data-rich countries, but not much has done for data-poor regions (such as the Horn of Africa, HOA). In this study, we characterize meteorological, soil moisture and hydrological from one to other 318 catchments HOA improve understanding spatial variability hazard. We calculate standardized precipitation index (SPI), (SSMI) streamflow (SSI). addition, use variable threshold method duration below a predefined percentile precipitation, discharge. The relationship between meteorological is investigated by finding SPI accumulation period that highest correlation SSMI, analysed SSI time series. Additionally, calculated these relationships with ratio threshold-based meteorological-drought relation duration. Finally, investigate influence climate catchment characteristics on metrics. results show (1) SSMI mean (P / SM) are mainly influenced properties vegetation, short periods (1 4 months) arable land, high annual low sand silt content, while longer accumulations (5 7 upstream shrub vegetation; (2) precipitation-to-streamflow highly control, i.e. geology, elevation land cover, times volcanic permeable geology cropland sedimentary rocks shrubland; (3) more important than SSMI. approximately 1 months wet western areas 5 dryland found. This can guide forecasting management efforts different metrics thus importance regions.

Language: Английский

Citations

33