Projected changes in extreme climate events over Africa under 1.5°C, 2.0°C and 3.0°C global warming levels based on CMIP6 projections

Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 292, P. 106872 - 106872

Published: June 16, 2023

Language: Английский

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Future water storage changes over the Mediterranean, Middle East, and North Africa in response to global warming and stratospheric aerosol intervention

Earth System Dynamics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 91 - 108

Published: Jan. 29, 2024

Abstract. Water storage plays a profound role in the lives of people across Middle East and North Africa (MENA) as it is most water-stressed region worldwide. The lands around Caspian Mediterranean seas are simulated to be very sensitive future climate warming. Available water capacity depends on hydroclimate variables such temperature precipitation that will depend socioeconomic pathways changes climate. This work explores both mean extreme terrestrial (TWS) under an unmitigated greenhouse gas (GHG) scenario (SSP5-8.5) stratospheric aerosol intervention (SAI) designed offset GHG-induced warming above 1.5 ∘C compares with historical period simulations. Both TWS projected significantly decrease SSP5-8.5 over domain, except for Arabian Peninsula, particularly wetter seas. Relative global warming, SAI partially ameliorates decreased wet regions, while has no significant effect increased drier lands. In entire domain studied, larger than pure GHG forcing, mainly due cooling and, turn, substantial evapotranspiration relative SSP5-8.5. Changes excursions reduced by SAI. Extreme scenarios throughout Iran, Iraq, but response more continental eastern hyper-arid different from neighboring dry latter case, we note reduction trend scenarios, values also showing decline compared conditions.

Language: Английский

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Quantifying the Added Value in the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Models as Compared to Native CMIP6 in Simulating Africa’s Diverse Precipitation Climatology

Earth Systems and Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 8(2), P. 417 - 436

Published: April 13, 2024

Language: Английский

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Evaluation of CMIP6 historical simulations over IGAD region of Eastern Africa

Discover Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 1(1)

Published: Aug. 31, 2023

Abstract The Accuracy of model simulations is critical for climate change and its socio-economic impact. This study evaluated23 Global models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). main objective was to identify top 10 best performance capturing patterns rainfall 1981–2014 period over Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) region Eastern Africa. total rainfall, annual cycle, continuous, categorical Volumatic statistical metrics, scatter plots, Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF), colored code portrait were used assess . Results indicate that most CMIP6 generally capture characteristics observed climatology pattern bimodal unimodal regimes. majority Arid Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) Kenya, Somalia, Ethiopia, Sudan scored lowest skills, highest bias, over-estimated lower skills June–September (JJAS) compared March–May (MAM) October-December (OND). Quantitatively, a high percent bias exceeding 80% ASALs, correlation coefficient ranging between 0.6 0.7 across Ethiopia’s highlands, 5–40 as Root Mean Squared Error region. In addition, 21 out 23 parts ACCESS-ESM1-5 MIROC6 are opposed CNRM-CM6-1HR under-estimated RMSE values. regional sub-national analysis showed it inconclusive select best-performed based individual metrics analysis. Out models, INM-CM5-0, HadGEM3-GC31-MM, CMCC-CM2-HR4, IPSL-CM6A-LR, KACE-1-0-G, EC-Earth3, NorESM2-MM, GFDL-ESM4, TaiESM1, KIOST-ESM IGAD These findings highlight importance selecting mapping present future hotspots extreme events

Language: Английский

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Observation and Projection of Marine Heatwaves in the Caribbean Sea from CMIP6 Models

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(13), P. 2357 - 2357

Published: June 27, 2024

In recent decades, climate change has led to ocean warming, causing more frequent extreme events such as marine heatwaves (MHWs), which have been understudied in the Caribbean Sea. This study addresses this gap using 30 years of daily sea surface temperature (SST) data, complemented by projections for 21st century from nineteen Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) models. 1983–2012 period, significant trends were observed spatially averaged MHWs frequency (1.32 annual per decade and node) mean duration (1.47 ± 0.29 days decade) but not intensity. addition, show large monthly variations these metrics, modulated interannual seasonal changes. seasonality is different three used being intense warm rainy months (intensity between 1.01 1.11 °C, 6.79 7.13 days) longer lasting late boreal winter 0.82 1.00 7.50 8.31 days). The behavior two that can occur both small areas Caribbean. Overall, models tend underestimate annually intensity, while they overestimate when compared observations. are under SSP585, sensible radiational scenario. However, an increase intensity (events much 154 2100) expected, driving a decrease (–37.39 SSP585 2100). These imply conditions at beginning will be nearly permanent Caribbean’s future. Nonetheless, caution advised interpreting due differences models’ simulations data. While advancements oceanic within CMIP6 demonstrate progress previous CMIP initiatives, challenges persist accurately simulating heatwaves.

Language: Английский

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Habitat suitability modeling to improve conservation strategy of two highly-grazed endemic plant species in saint Catherine Protectorate, Egypt

BMC Plant Biology, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 25(1)

Published: April 16, 2025

Abstract Background Biodiversity is seriously threatened by climate change impacts in the long term. Conservationists must possess a comprehensive knowledge about habitat suitability of different species and factors that control their distribution order to effectively minimize biodiversity loss. Results The present study showed response two endemic taxa Saint Catherine protectorate (SKP) ( Micromeria serbaliana Bufonia multiceps ) anticipate over next few decades using models. In our analysis, we included incorporation bioclimatic variables into SDM modeling process four main algorithms: generalized linear model (GLM), Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), Support Vector Machines (SVM) an ensemble model. RF outperformed other models when analyzing , whereas BRT demonstrated superiority case . exhibited best performance, achieving mean TSS 0.94 for 0.86 was mainly affected Mean temperature wettest quarter (Bio8), elevation, Aridity index. On hand, most significant influencing were determined be Isothermality (Bio2/Bio7) × 100 (Bio3), elevation. slightly expanded during period form 2041–2060, then declined again from 2061 2080, while it moderate expansion under periods. Conclusion results research support urgent need conservation efforts, including reintroduction planning situ ex appropriate habitats. Clinical trial number Not applicable.

Language: Английский

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Evaluating climate change scenarios in the white volta basin: A statistical bias-correction approach

Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts A/B/C, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 134, P. 103584 - 103584

Published: March 30, 2024

Language: Английский

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Development of intensity–duration–frequency relationships in Khon Kaen City, Thailand under changing climate using GCMs and a simple scaling method

Journal of Water and Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. 1204 - 1217

Published: March 1, 2024

Abstract This study analyses the annual maximum (AM) rainfall series (1991–2022) in Khon Kaen City, Thailand. The AM ranging from 3 to 24 h was best fitted Log-Pearson Type-III distribution. Notably, our findings reveal linear relationships between moments of intensities and durations establishing practicality simple scaling method for disaggregating 24-h data. Additionally, results this are influenced by factors such as sample size, chosen probability Comparisons intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves obtained through those derived traditional frequency analysis provide valuable insights. Furthermore, applied bias-corrected data 15 global climate models facilitating generation future IDF under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 SSP5-8.5 scenarios. Our highlight that events scenario projected exhibit higher emphasizing need understand prepare increased extremes context change. research contributes insights into prediction techniques, which crucial effective water resource management adaptation strategies region.

Language: Английский

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Mapping the potential habitat suitability and opportunities of bush encroacher species in Southern Africa: a case study of the SteamBioAfrica project

Frontiers of Biogeography, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 17

Published: Sept. 25, 2024

Senegalia mellifera (Benth) Seigler & Ebinger., Dichrostachys cinerea (L.) Wight Arn. and Terminalia sericea Burch. Ex DC., are three important bush encroacher species that contribute to the well-known ecological process named “thicketization” in Southern Africa. This issue has persisted for many years, impacting distribution, plant communities, soil, fauna dynamics. According climate change projections, Africa is expected become drier warmer future scenarios, creating favourable conditions proliferation of species. MaxEnt a general-purpose machine learning method widely utilized various biological scenarios predict potential suitable habitat achieved by incorporating presence-only occurrence records bioclimatic, topographic variables. The analysis was performed Geographic Information System based on current areas respective Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) according INM-CM5-0, UK-ESM1-0-LL MPIES-M1-2-HR models. done assess effects distribution patterns Model performance assessed area under curve (AUC) receiver operator characteristic (ROC), with 0.836, 0.822 0.738 as results , respectively. show presents suitability 56% (1,460,353 km²) total area, while have over 37.9% (996,168 43.9% (1,154,645 These findings indicate precipitation temperature variables most factors explaining spatial species, predicting increase between 8–29.4%, 2.8–24%, 3–24.2% Furthermore, each its own set different behaviour patterns. imply an improved understanding response woody changing managing encroachment savanna ecosystems. Based our analysis, currently area; 37.87% . In increases all compared state. unsuitable decrease proposed respect present, shrub expansion throughout southern potentially affected changes, larger scenarios. supported studies, which probable cover loss grasslands. Temperature main drivers behind these encroachers, increasing or decreasing competitiveness their phenotypic plasticity. occurs case study, but there clear trend towards south study. maps pattern movement South Botswana. would fit predictions Africa, rainfall east north country, being more competitive

Language: Английский

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Future Joint Probability Characteristics of Extreme Precipitation in the Yellow River Basin

Water, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(22), P. 3957 - 3957

Published: Nov. 14, 2023

The relationship between climate change and extreme precipitation is extremely complex. From a probabilistic perspective, proper understanding of the response to significant importance. This study was based on daily provided by CMIP6 models employed copula functions construct joint distributions amount intensity indices at different quantile levels. A spatial–temporal assessment susceptibility areas for in Yellow River Basin conducted while considering bivariate return periods design values. results indicate that there were spatial differences periods. Taking R90P-SDII (90) index 20a period as an example, difference maximum minimum within 1.4 times, co-occurring 7.0 Kendall 4 times. Moreover, this increased with increase period. magnitude order four follows: TAnd > TKendall TSingle-variable TOr. Joint (Or) (And) could be considered cases under single-variable periods, serving estimation interval actual Under influence change, values future exhibited variability 6.76–28.8% compared historical grew higher radiative forcing scenarios, ranking SSP126 < SSP245 SSP585. showed noticeable values, ranging from −0.79% 18.67%. R95P-SDII (95) PRCPTOT-SDII.

Language: Английский

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