Robust acceleration of Earth system heating observed over the past six decades

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 13(1)

Published: Dec. 27, 2023

Abstract Global heating of the Earth system is unequivocal. However, detecting an acceleration has remained elusive to date, despite suggestive evidence a potential increase in rates. In this study, we demonstrate that since 1960, warming world ocean accelerated at relatively consistent pace 0.15 ± 0.05 (W/m 2 )/decade, while land, cryosphere, and atmosphere have exhibited 0.013 0.003 )/decade. This led substantial warming, with magnitude 0.91 0.80 W/m between decades 1960–1970 2010–2020, which overlies decadal-scale variability up 0.6 . Our findings withstand wide range sensitivity analyses are across different observation-based datasets. The long-term aligns qualitatively rise CO concentrations decline aerosol concentration during same period, but further investigations necessary properly attribute these changes.

Language: Английский

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No respite from permafrost-thaw impacts in the absence of a global tipping point

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 14(6), P. 573 - 585

Published: June 1, 2024

Language: Английский

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Observational Assessment of Changes in Earth’s Energy Imbalance Since 2000

Surveys in Geophysics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 45(6), P. 1757 - 1783

Published: May 7, 2024

Abstract Satellite observations from the Clouds and Earth’s Radiant Energy System show that energy imbalance has doubled 0.5 ± 0.2 Wm −2 during first 10 years of this century to 1.0 − 2 past decade. The increase is result a 0.9 0.3 absorbed solar radiation (ASR) partially offset by 0.4 0.25 in outgoing longwave (OLR). Despite marked differences ASR OLR trends hiatus (2000–2010), transition-to-El Niño (2010–2016) post-El (2016–2022) periods, net top-of-atmosphere flux (NET) remain within 0.1 per decade one another, implying steady acceleration climate warming. Northern southern hemisphere NET are consistent 0.06 0.31 due compensation between weak hemispheric trend opposite sign. We find large decreases stratocumulus middle clouds over sub-tropics low at mid-latitudes primary reasons for increasing northern (NH). These changes especially eastern Pacific Ocean, coincide with increases sea-surface temperature (SST). decrease cloud fraction higher SSTs NH lead significant cloud-free regions, which compensate increase. Decreases reflection weaker reduction low-cloud account hemisphere, while weak. Changes cover response SST imply feedback change yet contribution radiative forcing or internal variability cannot be ruled out.

Language: Английский

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IAPv4 ocean temperature and ocean heat content gridded dataset

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 16(8), P. 3517 - 3546

Published: Aug. 2, 2024

Abstract. Ocean observational gridded products are vital for climate monitoring, ocean and research, model evaluation, supporting mitigation adaptation measures. This paper describes the 4th version of Institute Atmospheric Physics (IAPv4) temperature heat content (OHC) objective analysis product. It accounts recent developments in quality control (QC) procedures, climatology, bias correction, vertical horizontal interpolation, mapping is available upper 6000 m (119 levels) since 1940 (more reliable after ∼ 1957) monthly 1°×1° temporal spatial resolutions. IAPv4 compared with previous version, IAPv3, other data products, sea surface temperatures (SSTs), satellite observations. has a slightly stronger long-term 2000 OHC increase than IAPv3 1955–2023, mainly because newly developed corrections. The 0–2000 trend also higher during 2005–2023 QC process update. uppermost level consistent independent SST datasets. month-to-month variability desirably less investigated this study, warming rate (i.e., acceleration) more net energy imbalance at top atmosphere budget can be closed within uncertainty. product freely accessible https://doi.org/10.12157/IOCAS.20240117.002 (Cheng et al., 2024a) https://doi.org/10.12157/IOCAS.20240117.001 2024b).

Language: Английский

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Executive Summary: The Anthropocene Epoch and Crawfordian Age: proposals by the Anthropocene Working Group

EarthArXiv (California Digital Library), Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 15, 2024

This is the Executive Summary of a report produced by membership Anthropocene Working Group as part submission to Subcommission on Quaternary Stratigraphy seek formalisation an epoch geological time. It summarises content two reports and their associated appendices which provide background to: history usage term Anthropocene, when proposed started, characterisation deposits stratigraphic value, recognition in different sedimentary environments, rank duration Global boundary Stratigraphic Section Point supporting Standard Auxiliary Boundary Sections.

Language: Английский

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TEOS-10 Equations for the Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) and Climatic Feedback of Marine Clouds

Published: March 20, 2024

At an energy flux imbalance of about 1 W m–2, the ocean is storing 90 % heat accumulating by global warming. However, neither causes nor responsible geophysical processes are sufficiently well understood. More detailed investigations different phenomena contributing to oceanic balance warranted. Here, role low-level marine clouds in air-sea interaction analysed. TEOS-10, International Thermodynamic Equation State Seawater – 2010, exploited for a rigorous thermodynamic description climatic trend Lifted Condensation Level (LCL) troposphere. Rising Sea-Surface Temperature (SST) at constant Relative Humidity (RH) elevating clouds, cooling cloud base and reducing downward thermal radiation. This LCL feedback effect negative counteracting current SST 292 K, net radiative from surface estimated 24 m–2. Per degree increase, this expected be enhanced almost 0.5 The relevant ocean’s may thermodynamically rigorously modelled terms TEOS-10 equations. height serve as remotely measured, sensitive estimate sea relative fugacity, or conventional humidity.

Language: Английский

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Antarctica in 2025: Drivers of deep uncertainty in projected ice loss

Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 387(6734), P. 601 - 609

Published: Feb. 6, 2025

Antarctica is a vital component of Earth’s climate system, influencing global sea level, ocean circulation, and planetary albedo. Major knowledge gaps in critical processes—spanning the atmosphere, ocean, ice sheets, underlying beds, shelves, ice—create uncertainties future projections, hindering adaptation risk assessments intervention strategies. Antarctica’s sheet could contribute 28 centimeters to level by 2100, potentially more if we surpass warming thresholds that trigger instabilities rapid retreat. We review recent advances understanding changing stability margins identify key processes require further research. Progress requires high-resolution satellite data, targeted field campaigns, improved modeling, refined theory. Increased investment interdisciplinary collaboration are essential uncovering hidden reducing projections.

Language: Английский

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Why is the Earth System Oscillating at a 6-Year Period?

Surveys in Geophysics, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: Feb. 10, 2025

Language: Английский

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The present and future contribution of ships to the underwater soundscape

Frontiers in Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11

Published: March 8, 2024

Since the industrial revolution ocean has become noisier. The global increase in shipping is one of main contributors to this. In some regions, contributed an ambient noise several decibels, especially at low frequencies (10 100 Hz). Such can have a substantial negative impact on fish, invertebrates, marine mammals and birds interfering with key life functions (e.g. foraging, mating, resting, etc.). Consequently, engineers are investigating ways reduce emitted by vessels when designing new ships. At same time, since (starting around 1760) greenhouse gas emissions increased atmospheric carbon dioxide fraction x (CO 2 ) more than μmol mol -1 . uptake approximately third CO decreased average surface pH from 8.21 8.10. This decrease modifying sound propagation, absorption affected lower 10 kHz, making future potentially There also other climate change effects that may influence propagation. Sea warming might alter depth deep speed channel, ice melting could locally salinity frequent storms higher wind thermocline. particular, modification profile lead appearance ducts specific depths addition, seawater temperature will open routes poles increasing anthropogenic these regions. review aims discuss parameters coming decades, focusing contribution shipping, economic technical developments underwater soundscape ocean. Examples given, contrasting shallow seas. Apart changes this water quality ship-radiated focus propeller cavitation noise.

Language: Английский

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Trends and Variability in Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Ocean Heat Uptake Since 2005

Surveys in Geophysics, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 45(6), P. 1721 - 1756

Published: July 29, 2024

Abstract Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) is a fundamental metric of global Earth system change, quantifying the cumulative impact natural and anthropogenic radiative forcings feedback. To date, most precise measurements EEI change are obtained through radiometric observations at top atmosphere (TOA), while quantification absolute magnitude facilitated heat inventory analysis, where ~ 90% uptake manifests as an increase in ocean content (OHC). Various international groups provide OHC datasets derived from situ satellite observations, well reanalyses ingesting many available observations. The WCRP formed GEWEX-EEI Assessment Working Group to better understand discrepancies, uncertainties reconcile current knowledge magnitude, variability trends. Here, 21 (OHU) rates intercompared, providing OHU estimates ranging between 0.40 ± 0.12 0.96 0.08 W m −2 (2005–2019), spread that slightly reduced when unequal sampling accounted for, largely attributable differing source data, mapping methods quality control procedures. rate varies substantially − 0.03 0.13 (reanalysis product) 1.1 0.6 dec −1 (satellite product). Products either more regularly observe (satellites) or fill data-sparse regions based on additional physical (some reanalysis hybrid products) tend track than purely situ-based products. This paper also examines zonal trends TOA fluxes data gaps trend estimates. community aims refine their assessment studies, forge path toward best practices, e.g., uncertainty quantification, formulate recommendations for future activities.

Language: Английский

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