Population development as a driver of coastal risk: Current trends and future pathways

Cambridge Prisms Coastal Futures, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 1

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Abstract Coastal areas are subject to hazards that can result in severe impacts due the high concentration of people and assets exposed locations. While climate-induced sea-level rise will exacerbate these course 21st century, future dynamics socioeconomic development play an important role driving – as well adaptation responses particular countries with rapid population growth low-lying coastal areas. Here, we synthesize current state knowledge related locations underlying trends affecting at continental global scales. Currently, 2.15 billion live near-coastal zone 898 million low-elevation globally. These numbers could increase 2.9 1.2 billion, respectively, depending on scenario (i.e., Shared Socioeconomic Pathway [SSP]) considered. Nevertheless, although indicate a exposure hazards, they bear limited information about actual do not include vulnerability population. Based insights, stress need account for risk assessments, including vulnerability, additionally exploring potential feedbacks migration decisions. Last, propose action points work inform long-term planning managing risks.

Язык: Английский

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Complex climate change risk and emerging directions for vulnerability research in Africa

Climate Risk Management, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 40, С. 100497 - 100497

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

This article explains the assessment and conceptual framing of Vulnerability Synthesis in Africa chapter Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report (AR6), situating synthesis within emerging understandings complex climate change risk, intersectionality multi-dimensional vulnerability. It highlights how reducing vulnerability holds greatest potential gains for near-term risk Africa. elaborates important dimensions vulnerability, such as inequalities gender, migrant status or level income, compound with each other to affect risk. Our review current scholarship reveals severe limitations management that are rooted a lack attention interacting social drivers their effects well an orientation toward analyses at coarse spatial levels. These scales do not match localised nature nor impacts change. There is also limited research intersectional differentiation vulnerabilities, which essential understanding heterogeneous vulnerable groups agency, particularly concerning navigating contesting unequal power relations. Reflecting these Synthesis, we identify can provide deeper interactions among multiple why this matters adaptation Key will be show responses what overall outcomes. Doing so advance analysis place-based assessments across better inform design interventions targeting those have proportional effect reduction. contribute informed safeguards against maladaptation concrete directions planning more inclusive climate-resilient development.

Язык: Английский

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How well can we predict climate migration? A review of forecasting models

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 5

Опубликована: Янв. 4, 2024

Climate change will have significant impacts on all aspects of human society, including population movements. In some cases, populations be displaced by natural disasters and sudden-onset climate events, such as tropical storms. other gradually influence the economic, social, political realities a place, which in turn how where people migrate. Planning for wide spectrum future climate-related mobility is key challenge facing development planners policy makers. This article reviews state migration forecasting models, based an analysis thirty recent models. We present characteristics, strengths, weaknesses different modeling approaches, gravity, radiation, agent-based, systems dynamics statistical extrapolation consider five illustrative models depth. show why, at this stage development, are not yet able to provide reliable numerical estimates migration. Rather, best used tools range possible futures, explore dynamics, test theories or potential effects. research implications our findings, need improved data collection, enhanced interdisciplinary collaboration, scenarios-based planning.

Язык: Английский

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Climate-induced migration in the Global South: an in depth analysis

npj Climate Action, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 3(1)

Опубликована: Июнь 14, 2024

Abstract Scientists predict ongoing global climate change to trigger adverse events affecting about 143 million people in the Global South by 2050, leading various forms of migration and mobility. While existing literature extensively examines climate-induced migration, there is a lack studies considering compounding impacts multiple hazards on mobility, immobility. To address this gap, we conducted systematic review explore how stressors, specifically rising temperatures, water stress droughts, floods sea-level rise, have affected populations South, voluntary and/or forced migration. Our findings show that these stressors displaced profoundly impacted millions people, resulting both internal transboundary Climate-induced often through indirect pathways influenced intervening institutional, political, socio-economic factors programmatic policy gaps. Effectively addressing challenges related necessitates adaptation strategies adequately consider while recognizing their differential effects socio-demographic groups. We argue support from North countries, including compensation for loss damage, along with continued institutional financial international non-governmental organizations, crucial managing South. Without proper planning adequate resources, may escalate significantly impact human security. The study can inform policies assist experts identifying intervention mechanisms opportunities people-centered solutions.

Язык: Английский

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Research priorities for climate mobility

One Earth, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 7(4), С. 589 - 607

Опубликована: Март 8, 2024

The escalating impacts of climate change on the movement and immobility people, coupled with false but influential narratives mobility, highlight an urgent need for nuanced synthetic research around mobility. Synthesis evidence gaps across Intergovernmental Panel Climate Change (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report a to clarify understanding what conditions make human mobility effective adaptation option its outcomes, including simultaneous losses, damages, benefits. Priorities include integration development planning; involuntary vulnerability; gender; data cities; risk from responses maladaptation; public risk; transboundary, compound, cascading risks; nature-based approaches; planned retreat, relocation, heritage. Cutting these priorities, modalities better position as type process, praxis. Policies practices reflect diverse needs, experiences emphasizing capability, choice, freedom movement.

Язык: Английский

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Prioritizing involuntary immobility in climate policy and disaster planning

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2025, Номер 16(1)

Опубликована: Март 16, 2025

Abstract Globally, populations are increasingly located in areas at high risk of climate change impacts. Some lack the agency to move out harm’s way, leading involuntary immobility. The risks these face insufficiently addressed policy and disaster planning. While planning should be data-informed, appropriate data not limit governments institutions from taking action reduce Incorporating immobility within broader sustainable development goals safe, orderly, regular migration may substantially

Язык: Английский

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Ten new insights in climate science 2023

Global Sustainability, Год журнала: 2023, Номер 7

Опубликована: Янв. 1, 2023

Abstract Non-technical summary We identify a set of essential recent advances in climate change research with high policy relevance, across natural and social sciences: (1) looming inevitability implications overshooting the 1.5°C warming limit, (2) urgent need for rapid managed fossil fuel phase-out, (3) challenges scaling carbon dioxide removal, (4) uncertainties regarding future contribution sinks, (5) intertwinedness crises biodiversity loss change, (6) compound events, (7) mountain glacier loss, (8) human immobility face risks, (9) adaptation justice, (10) just transitions food systems. Technical The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Assessment Reports provides scientific foundation international negotiations constitutes an unmatched resource researchers. However, assessment cycles take multiple years. As to cross- interdisciplinary understanding diverse communities, we have streamlined annual process synthesize significant advances. collected input from experts various fields using online questionnaire prioritized 10 key insights relevance. This year, focus on: overshoot urgency scale-up joint governance accelerated amidst present succinct account these insights, reflect their implications, offer integrated policy-relevant messages. science synthesis communication effort is also basis report contributing elevate every year time United Nations Conference. Social media highlight – more than 200 experts.

Язык: Английский

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An interdisciplinary overview of levee setback benefits: Supporting spatial planning and implementation of riverine nature‐based solutions

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Water, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 11(6)

Опубликована: Июль 24, 2024

Abstract Nature‐based solutions (NbS, and related concepts like natural infrastructure, Ecosystem‐based Adaptation, green infrastructure) are increasingly recognized as multi‐benefit strategies for addressing the critical sustainability challenges of Anthropocene, including climate emergency biodiversity crisis. Mainstreaming NbS in professional practice requires strategic, landscape‐level planning integrating multiple sources benefits their synergies trade‐offs. Levee setbacks (LS) among best‐studied riverine with flood risk management, drought resilience, water quality recreational opportunities, ecological restoration biodiversity. Although awareness multifarious LS forms Natural Capital is growing, implementation remains ad‐hoc opportunistic. To address this gap one major example NbS, we review synthesize literature across diverse disciplines to provide an overview primary social, economic, mechanisms that affect co‐benefit delivery projects. Next, make information relevant practitioners, link these spatial metrics can be used approximate relative magnitude project costs mechanisms. Finally, highlight examples key trade‐offs should considered planning. This synthetic approach intended familiarize readers potential LS, understanding how select prioritize sites further study implementation. Synergies important benefit drivers abound, social equity concerns will paramount ensuring successful other future. article categorized under: Engineering Water > Sustainable Planning Life Nature Freshwater Ecosystems

Язык: Английский

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Challenges for climate change adaptation in Latin America and the Caribbean region

Frontiers in Climate, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 6

Опубликована: Апрель 23, 2024

The limited success of international efforts to reduce global warming at levels established in the Paris Agreement, and increasing frequency strength climate impacts, highlight urgent need adaptation, particularly developing countries. Unfortunately, current adaptation initiatives are not enough counteract observed impacts projected risks from change Latin America Caribbean (LAC). In this paper, we review relevant issues that have capacity transform knowledge parties’ ambitions into action region. Current vulnerabilities climatic impact-drivers LAC diverse, complex, region-specific their effects expected be exacerbated by change. However, advancement regional domestic agendas has been hindered scientific gaps, political support, institutional capacity, financial, technical, human, economic limitations common many Transforming data multidimensional metrics with useful thresholds for different sectors understanding contribution feasible strategies delayed local conundrums such as lack inclusive governance, availability, equity, justice, transboundary issues. We discuss ways move forward develop resilient development actions a more sustainable future LAC. science community needs strengthen its local, national, connections decision/policymakers society establish three-way engagement proposing suitable negotiations vulnerability associated extremes, variability discussions insights presented work could extrapolated other countries Global South.

Язык: Английский

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Understanding the global subnational migration patterns driven by hydrological intrusion exposure

Nature Communications, Год журнала: 2024, Номер 15(1)

Опубликована: Июль 26, 2024

Amid the escalating global climatic challenges, hydrological risks significantly influence human settlement patterns, underscoring imperative for an in-depth comprehension of change's ramifications on migration. However, predominant research has been circumscribed to national level. The study delves into nonlinear effects migration dynamics in 46,776 subnational units. Meanwhile, leveraging remote sensing, we procured globally consistent metrics intrusion exposure, offering a holistic risk assessment encompassing hazard, and vulnerability dimensions, thus complementing previous work. Here, show that exposure is primary driver, surpassing socioeconomic factors. Surrounding disparities further intensified exposure's impact. Vulnerable groups, especially economically disadvantaged elderly, tend remain high-risk areas, with former predominantly migrating within proximate vicinities. analysis delineates S-shaped trajectory transitioning from resistance culminating entrapment, revealing dependence resilience adaptability.

Язык: Английский

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