More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 6(5), P. 508 - 513

Published: March 4, 2016

Language: Английский

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Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 28(17), P. 6938 - 6959

Published: July 22, 2015

Abstract Quantile mapping bias correction algorithms are commonly used to correct systematic distributional biases in precipitation outputs from climate models. Although they effective at removing historical relative observations, it has been found that quantile can artificially corrupt future model-projected trends. Previous studies on the modification of trends by have focused mean quantities, with less attention paid extremes. This article investigates extent which modify global model (GCM) and extremes indices. First, a algorithm, delta (QDM), explicitly preserves changes quantiles is presented. QDM compared synthetic data detrended (DQM), designed preserve mean, standard (QM). Next, methods applied phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) daily projections over Canada. Performance assessed based indices results generalized extreme value analysis annual maxima. QM inflate magnitude respect raw GCM, often substantially, as DQM especially QDM. The degree corruption GCM particularly large for long period return values. By 2080s, excess +500% conditions noted some locations 20-yr values, maximum nearing +240% +140%, respectively, whereas never projected exceed +120%.

Language: Английский

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A review on regional convection‐permitting climate modeling: Demonstrations, prospects, and challenges

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 53(2), P. 323 - 361

Published: April 28, 2015

Abstract Regional climate modeling using convection‐permitting models (CPMs; horizontal grid spacing <4 km) emerges as a promising framework to provide more reliable information on regional local scales compared traditionally used large‐scale (LSMs; >10 km). CPMs no longer rely convection parameterization schemes, which had been identified major source of errors and uncertainties in LSMs. Moreover, allow for accurate representation surface orography fields. The drawback is the high demand computational resources. For this reason, first CPM simulations only appeared decade ago. In study, we aim common basis by giving holistic review topic. most important components such physical parameterizations dynamical formulations are discussed critically. An overview weaknesses an outlook required future developments provided. Most importantly, presents consolidated outcome studies that addressed added value Improvements evident mostly statistics related deep convection, mountainous regions, or extreme events. change signals suggest increase flash floods, changes hail storm characteristics, reductions snowpack over mountains. conclusion, very tool research. However, coordinated programs crucially needed advance unresolved physics assess full potential CPMs.

Language: Английский

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The future intensification of hourly precipitation extremes

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 7(1), P. 48 - 52

Published: Dec. 5, 2016

Language: Английский

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Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Nov. 5, 2019

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such occur in a warmer world however less well established, and combined effect changes frequency on total amount rain falling as much explored, spite potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations climate model simulations document strong increases frequencies occurring decadal timescales. Based find that from these intense almost doubles per degree warming, mainly due frequency, while are relatively weak, accordance previous studies. This shift towards stronger seen models, strength - hence rareness event. results, project if historical trends continue, most observed today likely double occurrence for each further Changes this magnitude dramatically than more widely communicated mean precipitation.

Language: Английский

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Extreme weather and climate events with ecological relevance: a review

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society B Biological Sciences, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 372(1723), P. 20160135 - 20160135

Published: May 8, 2017

Robust evidence exists that certain extreme weather and climate events, especially daily temperature precipitation extremes, have changed in regard to intensity frequency over recent decades. These changes been linked human-induced change, while the degree which change impacts an individual event (ECE) is more difficult quantify. Rapid progress attribution has recently made through improved understanding of observed simulated variability, methods for advances numerical modelling. Attribution events stronger compared with other types, notably those related hydrological cycle. Recent ECEs, both observations their representation state-of-the-art models, open new opportunities assessing effect on human natural systems. Improved spatial resolution global models statistical dynamical downscaling now provide climatic information at appropriate temporal scales. Together continued development Earth System Models simulate biogeochemical cycles interactions biosphere increasing complexity, these make it possible develop a mechanistic how ECEs affect biological processes, ecosystem functioning adaptation capabilities. Limitations observational network, physical system parameters even so long-term ecological monitoring, hampered bio-physical across range New modulate structure arise from better scientific coupled technological observing systems instrumentation. This article part themed issue ‘Behavioural, evolutionary responses events’.

Language: Английский

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Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change

Current Climate Change Reports, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 1(2), P. 49 - 59

Published: April 20, 2015

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control response. Observations simulations models show intensify in warming climate. However, sensitivity remains uncertain when convection important, it may be higher tropics than extratropics. Several contributions govern extremes. thermodynamic contribution robust well understood, but theoretical understanding microphysical dynamical still being developed. Orographic snowfall respond differently other require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include influence mesoscale convective organization, dependence duration considered, need better constrain tropical warming.

Language: Английский

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Observed heavy precipitation increase confirms theory and early models

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 6(11), P. 986 - 991

Published: Oct. 26, 2016

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic intensification of short-duration rainfall extremes

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 2(2), P. 107 - 122

Published: Jan. 15, 2021

Language: Английский

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Global and Regional Increase of Precipitation Extremes Under Global Warming

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 55(6), P. 4901 - 4914

Published: May 9, 2019

Abstract Global warming is expected to change the regime of extreme precipitation. Physical laws translate increasing atmospheric heat into water content that drives precipitation changes. Within literature, general agreement changing, yet different assessment methods, data sets, and study periods may result in patterns rates change. Here we perform a global analysis 8,730 daily records focusing on 1964–2013 period when accelerates. We introduce novel N largest extremes having complete years within period. Based these extremes, which represent more accurately heavy than annual maxima, form time series their frequency mean magnitude. The offers new insights reveals (1) zonal trends are highly unlikely under assumption stationarity (2) magnitude changes not as evident. Frequency reveal coherent spatial pattern with being detected large parts Eurasia, North Australia, Midwestern United States. Globally, over last decade studied find 7% events number. Finally, report correlated frequency.

Language: Английский

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