Evidence of Temperature‐Driven Shifts in Market SquidDoryteuthis opalescensDensities and Distribution in the California Current Ecosystem

Marine and Coastal Fisheries, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(1)

Published: Jan. 23, 2022

Abstract Climate change is impacting the abundance and distribution of marine resources. The consequences these impacts are likely to alter trophic interactions between species within an ecosystem affect fisheries opportunities for coastal communities. Market squid Doryteuthis opalescens comprise largest fishery (by volume) in California, USA, questions persist about whether changing ocean conditions leading increase traditional fishing locations as well marginal habitats northern areas. To examine this potential phenomenon, we used fisheries‐independent survey data collected by National Marine Fisheries Service 1998 2019 develop a spatiotemporal model that estimates changes density from central California Washington. We found fivefold index across entire spatial domain surveys during sampling period, with increases occurring Oregon Washington strata. Although our demonstrated encounter rates densities increased warmer more saline waters, large shifts were only associated deviations temperatures could be characterized heatwaves. This analysis adds growing body work documenting response resources both long‐term trends warming episodic events, such Furthermore, it demonstrates need assessment models ability forecast at scales relevant

Language: Английский

---

A risk table to address concerns external to stock assessments when developing fisheries harvest recommendations

Ecosystem health and sustainability, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 6(1)

Published: Sept. 24, 2020

ABSTRACT This paper develops a risk table to facilitate incorporation of additional information into the fisheries stock assessment and management process. The is designed evaluate unanticipated ecosystem environmental impacts on marine resources that may require rapid response. standardized framework document concerns about model, population dynamics, ecosystem/environment are not explicitly addressed within model. A scoring procedure used severity concern. These can then be evaluated in support for or against reduction from maximum Acceptable Biological Catch while providing reviewers stakeholders transparent documentation concerns. was applied successfully several stocks trial basis during 2018 groundfish cycle North Pacific Fishery Management Council, will all full assessments 2019. Rapid changes climate likely Alaska ecosystems coming decades, these entirely predicable. Therefore, we avocate approach should included suite tools address effects change resources.

Language: Английский

---

Improving estimates of species distribution change by incorporating local trends

Ecography, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 44(3), P. 427 - 439

Published: Dec. 2, 2020

A common goal in ecology and its applications is to better understand how species' distributions change over space time, yet many conventional summary metrics (e.g. center of gravity) distribution shifts may offer limited inference because such changes not be spatially homogenous. We develop a modeling approach estimate explicit temporal trend (i.e. local trend), alongside spatial (temporally constant) spatiotemporal (time‐varying) components, compare inferred those indicated by metrics. This method generalizable data types including presence–absence data, count continuous as density. To demonstrate the utility this new approach, we focus on application model community well‐studied marine fish species US west coast (19 species, representing wide range densities). Results from selection indicate that use accounting for trends clearly justified 89% these species. In addition making more parsimonious accurate predictions, illustrate estimated fields can used classify regions within where relatively Conventional metrics, gravity, then calculated each region or previously defined biogeographic boundaries. nuanced than what expressed via global Using arrowtooth flounder Atheresthes stomias an example, observed southward shift time gravity reflective uniform densities but decreasing density northern rapidly increasing at southern edge range. Thus, estimating with models improves interpretation change.

Language: Английский

---

Estimating climate-driven phenology shifts and survey availability using fishery-dependent data

Progress In Oceanography, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 215, P. 103035 - 103035

Published: May 4, 2023

Language: Английский

---

Spatio‐temporal models of intermediate complexity for ecosystem assessments: A new tool for spatial fisheries management

Fish and Fisheries, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 20(6), P. 1083 - 1099

Published: Sept. 25, 2019

Abstract Multispecies models are widely used to evaluate management trade‐offs arising from species interactions. However, identifying climate impacts and sensitive habitats requires integrating spatial heterogeneity environmental into multispecies at fine scales. We therefore develop a spatio‐temporal model of intermediate complexity for ecosystem assessments (a “MICE‐in‐space”), which is fitted survey sampling data time series fishing mortality using maximum‐likelihood techniques. The implemented in the VAST R package, it can be configured range purely descriptive including ratio‐dependent interactions among species. demonstrate this four groundfishes Gulf Alaska 1982 2015. Model selection case‐study shows that with parsimonious, although specifying separate density dependence without also has substantial support. AIC‐selected estimates significant, negative impact pollock ( Gadus chalcogrammus , Gadidae) on productivity other suggests recent Pacific cod G. microcephalus above biological reference point (BRP) resulting 40% unfished biomass; show similar trends but different scales due BRP estimates. A simulation experiment fitting fewer coarse resolution degrades estimation performance, points still estimated accurately. conclude MICE‐in‐space simultaneously estimate impacts, trade‐offs, habitat quality. They suitable forecast short‐term optimize designs designate protected habitats.

Language: Английский

---

Seasonal and interannual variation in spatio-temporal models for index standardization and phenology studies

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 77(5), P. 1879 - 1892

Published: April 10, 2020

Abstract Climate change is rapidly affecting the seasonal timing of spatial demographic processes. Consequently, resource managers require information from models that simultaneously measure seasonal, interannual, and variation. We present a spatio-temporal model includes annual, variation in density then highlight two important uses: (i) standardizing data are spatially unbalanced within multiple seasons (ii) identifying interannual changes (phenology) population demonstrate these uses with contrasting case studies: three bottom trawl surveys for yellowtail flounder (Limanda ferruginea) Northwest Atlantic Ocean 1985 to 2017 pelagic tows copepodite stage 3+ copepod (Calanus glacialis/marshallae) densities eastern Bering Sea 1993 2016. The analysis illustrates how can be used infer hot spots an area not sampled one or more surveys. assimilates seasonally samples estimate annual index abundance identifies positive correlation between this cold-pool extent. conclude by discussing additional potential emphasize their ability identify climate-driven shifts fish movement ecosystem productivity.

Language: Английский

---

Association of Environmental Factors in the Taiwan Strait with Distributions and Habitat Characteristics of Three Swimming Crabs

Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 12(14), P. 2231 - 2231

Published: July 11, 2020

Information regarding the oceanic environment is crucial for determining species distributions and their habitat preferences. However, in studies on crustaceans, especially swimming crabs, such information remains poorly utilized, its effects crab communities Taiwan Strait (TS) has not been well documented. The purpose of this study was to understand relationship between catch rates three environmental factors TS. We fitted generalized additive models (GAMs) logbooks voyage data recorder from Taiwanese vessels (2011–2015), developed a distribution model, predicted these based GAM output. chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) concentration related high Chrybdis feriatus Portunus sanguinolentus, whereas bottom temperature (BT) pelagicus. variance percentages each indicated that C. P. sanguinolentus occurred Chl-a > 0.5 mg/m3, pelagicus exhibited negative correlations with BTs 25 °C. model north TS during autumn winter, observed south summer autumn. be widely distributed around further northern area winter. These findings revealed responds spatiotemporal variations. Understanding habitats crabs vital fisheries resource management conservation planning.

Language: Английский

---

Exploring timescales of predictability in species distributions

Ecography, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 44(6), P. 832 - 844

Published: March 16, 2021

Accurate forecasts of how animals respond to climate‐driven environmental change are needed prepare for future redistributions, however, it is unclear which temporal scales variability give rise predictability species distributions. We examined the that best predicted spatial abundance a marine predator, swordfish Xiphias gladius , in California Current. To understand provide biological predictability, we decomposed physical variables into three components: monthly climatology (long‐term average), low frequency component representing interannual variability, and high (sub‐annual) captures ephemeral features. then assessed each component's contribution predictive skill spatially‐explicit catch. The was primary source catch, reflecting distribution associated with seasonal movements this region. Importantly, found (capturing variability) provided significant predicting anomalous cannot. addition added only minor improvement predictability. By examining models' ability predict anomalies, assess models way consistent goal – deviations distributions from their average historical locations. critical importance climate describing catch matches target timescales forecasts, suggesting potential skillful ecological across short (seasonal) long (climate) timescales. Understanding sources prediction responses gives confidence our accurately abundance, know likely less predictable, under change. This important as continues cause an unprecedented redistribution life on Earth.

Language: Английский

---

Shifting fish distributions impact predation intensity in a sub‐Arctic ecosystem

Ecography, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 2022(9)

Published: June 23, 2022

An abundance of studies in marine systems have documented species range shifts response to climate change, and many more used distribution models project ranges under future conditions. However, there is increasing interest moving beyond a single‐species focus understand how redistribution alters ecosystem dynamics via changes trophic interactions. We employed spatiotemporal characterize decadal‐scale spatial overlap between the juvenile walleye pollock Gadus chalcogrammus distributions four its groundfish predators: arrowtooth flounder Atheresthes stomias , Pacific cod macrocephalus halibut Hippoglossus stenolepis adult pollock. These fishes represent ecologically commercially important rapidly changing sub‐Arctic ecosystem, eastern Bering Sea, Alaska, USA. then examined whether corresponded predation, using predator stomach contents. found marked two predators (arrowtooth halibut) over 34 years, with corresponding increases population‐scale predation pressure. By contrast, we did not find clear relationships for pollock, which constitute much smaller diet proportion. Our findings highlight complexity predicting generalist suggest need better process‐based methods understanding potential ecological impacts coupled shifts. simple metrics relatively specialized their prey offer promise as means integrate predictions from into ecosystem‐based fisheries management.

Language: Английский

---

Development of climate informed management scenarios for fisheries in the eastern Bering Sea

ICES Journal of Marine Science, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: unknown

Published: March 29, 2024

Abstract In recognition of the impact climate change on marine ecosystems worldwide, integrated research teams have coupled projections with social-ecological models to inform management and evaluate adaptation strategies for fishing industry communities. A key step in this process is selection scenarios that enable improved decision-making through engagements constituents diverse interests future use resources. This paper presents an approach selecting refining climate-informed groundfish crab fisheries eastern Bering Sea. The involved: (a) initial model development provide worked examples; (b) engagement stakeholders seek input climate-related concerns, priorities, options; (c) establishment pathways uptake decision support information into existing systems. narrowed range candidate scenarios, identified pressing concerns constituents, clarified timelines scheduling modeling projects address these concerns. Separating evaluation (research modeling) from proposed changes Fishery Management Plans preserved opportunities public debate a well-established regulatory review process. Collectively, outcomes help advance regionally relevant climate-ready harvest policy.

Language: Английский

---