ERA5-Land: a state-of-the-art global reanalysis dataset for land applications

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 13(9), P. 4349 - 4383

Published: Sept. 7, 2021

Abstract. Framed within the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) of European Commission, Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) is producing an enhanced global dataset land component fifth generation ReAnalysis (ERA5), hereafter referred to as ERA5-Land. Once completed, period covered will span from 1950 present, with continuous updates support monitoring applications. ERA5-Land describes evolution water and energy cycles over in a consistent manner production period, which, among others, could be used analyse trends anomalies. This achieved through high-resolution numerical integrations ECMWF surface model driven by downscaled meteorological forcing ERA5 climate reanalysis, including elevation correction thermodynamic near-surface state. shares most parameterizations that guarantees use state-of-the-art modelling applied weather prediction (NWP) models. A main advantage compared older ERA-Interim horizontal resolution, which globally 9 km 31 (ERA5) or 80 (ERA-Interim), whereas temporal resolution hourly ERA5. Evaluation against independent situ observations satellite-based reference datasets shows added value description hydrological cycle, particular soil moisture lake description, overall better agreement river discharge estimations available observations. However, snow depth fields present mixed performance when those ERA5, depending on geographical location altitude. The cycle comparable results Nevertheless, reduces averaged root mean square error skin temperature, taking MODIS data, mainly due contribution coastal points where spatial important. Since January 2020, has extended 1981 near 2- 3-month delay respect real time. segment prior production, aiming release whole summer/autumn 2021. high ERA5-Land, its consistency produced makes it valuable studies, initialize NWP models, diverse applications dealing resource, land, environmental management. full (Muñoz-Sabater, 2019a) monthly 2019b) presented this paper are C3S Data Store at https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.e2161bac https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.68d2bb30, respectively.

Language: Английский

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The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979

Communications Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 3(1)

Published: Aug. 11, 2022

Abstract In recent decades, the warming in Arctic has been much faster than rest of world, a phenomenon known as amplification. Numerous studies report that is either twice, more or even three times fast globe on average. Here we show, by using several observational datasets which cover region, during last 43 years nearly four globe, higher ratio generally reported literature. We compared observed amplification with simulated state-of-the-art climate models, and found four-fold over 1979–2021 an extremely rare occasion model simulations. The ratios are consistent each other if calculated longer period; however comparison obscured uncertainties before 1979. Our results indicate unlikely event, models systematically tend to underestimate

Language: Английский

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Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting

Science, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 382(6677), P. 1416 - 1421

Published: Nov. 14, 2023

Global medium-range weather forecasting is critical to decision-making across many social and economic domains. Traditional numerical prediction uses increased compute resources improve forecast accuracy but does not directly use historical data the underlying model. Here, we introduce GraphCast, a machine learning-based method trained from reanalysis data. It predicts hundreds of variables for next 10 days at 0.25° resolution globally in under 1 minute. GraphCast significantly outperforms most accurate operational deterministic systems on 90% 1380 verification targets, its forecasts support better severe event prediction, including tropical cyclone tracking, atmospheric rivers, extreme temperatures. key advance efficient helps realize promise learning modeling complex dynamical systems.

Language: Английский

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An evaluation of ERA5 precipitation for climate monitoring

Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 148(748), P. 3152 - 3165

Published: July 26, 2022

Abstract A key aim of climate monitoring is to place the current conditions variables, such as surface air temperature and precipitation, in their historical context. In Europe, a leading provider this information Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), which implemented by European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) on behalf Commission. To undertake activity close‐to‐real time, C3S predominantly uses ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis, precipitation widely used proxy observed hydrological monitoring. However, there be confidence data, it essential evaluate its ability capture precipitation. study, we therefore against observations globally inform activities broader science community. Using 24 hr at 5,637 stations from 2001 2020, results show that smallest random errors occur winter Extratropics largest are Tropics. The grow summer Tropics move with intertropical convergence zone. These findings mirrored stable equitable error probability space (SEEPS) score, SEEPS signifying more able discriminate between different events Extratropics. general, an wet bias also found. assessment annual maximum 1 day (RX1) accumulations four extreme shows cannot model highest totals but can generally locations patterns. Furthermore, evaluation monthly corroborated skilful imply users have extratropical regions, recommended mostly

Language: Английский

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The 2021 western North America heat wave among the most extreme events ever recorded globally

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 8(18)

Published: May 4, 2022

In June 2021, western North America experienced a record-breaking heat wave outside the distribution of previously observed temperatures. While it is clear that event was extreme, not obvious whether other areas in world have also events so far their natural variability. Using novel assessment extremes, we investigate how extreme this global context. Characterizing relative intensity an as number standard deviations from mean, remarkable, coming at over four deviations. Throughout globe, where reliable data, only five waves were found to be more since 1960. We find both reanalyses and climate projections, statistical extremes increases through time, line with mean shift due change. Regions that, by chance, had recent may less prepared for potentially imminent events.

Language: Английский

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2021 North American heatwave amplified by climate change-driven nonlinear interactions

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 12(12), P. 1143 - 1150

Published: Nov. 24, 2022

Language: Английский

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Heat stored in the Earth system 1960–2020: where does the energy go?

Earth system science data, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(4), P. 1675 - 1709

Published: April 17, 2023

Abstract. The Earth climate system is out of energy balance, and heat has accumulated continuously over the past decades, warming ocean, land, cryosphere, atmosphere. According to Sixth Assessment Report by Working Group I Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this planetary multiple decades human-driven results in unprecedented committed changes system, with adverse impacts for ecosystems human systems. inventory provides a measure imbalance (EEI) allows quantifying how much as well where stored. Here we show that continued accumulate heat, 381±61 ZJ from 1971 2020. This equivalent heating rate (i.e., EEI) 0.48±0.1 W m−2. majority, about 89 %, stored followed 6 % 1 atmosphere, 4 available melting cryosphere. Over most recent period (2006–2020), EEI amounts 0.76±0.2 fundamental global indicator scientific community public can use world doing task bringing anthropogenic change under control. Moreover, highly complementary other established ones like mean surface temperature it represents robust its future commitment. We call an implementation into Paris Agreement's Global Stocktake based best science. study, updated von Schuckmann et al. (2020), underpinned worldwide multidisciplinary collaboration demonstrates critical importance concerted international efforts monitoring community-based recommendations also urgently needed actions enabling continuity, archiving, rescuing, calibrating assure improved long-term capacity observing system. data are publicly available, more details provided Table 4.

Language: Английский

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Causal inference for time series

Nature Reviews Earth & Environment, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 4(7), P. 487 - 505

Published: June 27, 2023

Language: Английский

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Large increases of multi-year droughts in north-western Europe in a warmer climate

Climate Dynamics, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 60(5-6), P. 1781 - 1800

Published: July 20, 2022

Abstract Three consecutive dry summers in western Europe (2018–2019–2020) had widespread negative impacts on society and ecosystems, started societal debate (changing) drought vulnerability adaptation measures. We investigate the occurrence of multi-year droughts Rhine basin, with a focus event probability present future warmer climates. Additionally, we temporally compounding physical drivers events. A combination multiple reanalysis datasets multi-model large ensemble climate model simulations was used to provide robust analysis statistics processes these rare identify two types events (consecutive meteorological summer long-duration hydrological droughts), show that occur average about twice 30 year period climate, though natural variability is (zero five can single period). Projected decreases precipitation increases atmospheric evaporative demand, lead doubling at 1 $$^\circ$$ ∘ C additional global warming relative present-day an increase length Consecutive are forced by two, seemingly independent, lower than normal higher demand. The soil moisture response this compound forcing has clear imprint, resulting relatively larger reduction content second drought, potentially more severe impacts. Long-duration start followed lingering meteorologically conditions. This limits slows down recovery content, leading long-lasting initial exploration provides avenues for further investigation hazard region, which advised given projected trends ecosystems.

Language: Английский

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The impacts of rising vapour pressure deficit in natural and managed ecosystems

Plant Cell & Environment, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 47(9), P. 3561 - 3589

Published: Feb. 13, 2024

An exponential rise in the atmospheric vapour pressure deficit (VPD) is among most consequential impacts of climate change terrestrial ecosystems. Rising VPD has negative and cascading effects on nearly all aspects plant function including photosynthesis, water status, growth survival. These responses are exacerbated by land-atmosphere interactions that couple to soil govern evolution drought, affecting a range ecosystem services carbon uptake, biodiversity, provisioning resources crop yields. However, despite global nature this phenomenon, research how incorporate these into resilient management regimes largely its infancy, due part entanglement trends with those other co-evolving drivers. Here, we review mechanistic bases at spatial scales, paying particular attention independent interactive influence context environmental changes. We then evaluate consequences within key contexts, resources, croplands, wildfire risk mitigation natural grasslands forests. conclude recommendations describing could be altered mitigate otherwise highly deleterious rising VPD.

Language: Английский

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