More extreme precipitation in the world’s dry and wet regions

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2016, Volume and Issue: 6(5), P. 508 - 513

Published: March 4, 2016

Language: Английский

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Future changes to the intensity and frequency of short-duration extreme rainfall

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2014, Volume and Issue: 52(3), P. 522 - 555

Published: July 25, 2014

Evidence that extreme rainfall intensity is increasing at the global scale has strengthened considerably in recent years. Research now indicates greatest increases are likely to occur short-duration storms lasting less than a day, potentially leading an increase magnitude and frequency of flash floods. This review examines evidence for subdaily intensification due anthropogenic climate change describes our current physical understanding association between atmospheric temperature. We also examine nature, quality, quantity information needed allow society adapt successfully predicted future changes, discuss roles observational modeling studies helping us better understand processes can influence characteristics. conclude by describing types research required produce more thorough relationships local-scale thermodynamic effects, large-scale circulation, intensity.

Language: Английский

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Bias Correction of GCM Precipitation by Quantile Mapping: How Well Do Methods Preserve Changes in Quantiles and Extremes?

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 28(17), P. 6938 - 6959

Published: July 22, 2015

Abstract Quantile mapping bias correction algorithms are commonly used to correct systematic distributional biases in precipitation outputs from climate models. Although they effective at removing historical relative observations, it has been found that quantile can artificially corrupt future model-projected trends. Previous studies on the modification of trends by have focused mean quantities, with less attention paid extremes. This article investigates extent which modify global model (GCM) and extremes indices. First, a algorithm, delta (QDM), explicitly preserves changes quantiles is presented. QDM compared synthetic data detrended (DQM), designed preserve mean, standard (QM). Next, methods applied phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) daily projections over Canada. Performance assessed based indices results generalized extreme value analysis annual maxima. QM inflate magnitude respect raw GCM, often substantially, as DQM especially QDM. The degree corruption GCM particularly large for long period return values. By 2080s, excess +500% conditions noted some locations 20-yr values, maximum nearing +240% +140%, respectively, whereas never projected exceed +120%.

Language: Английский

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Anthropogenic contribution to global occurrence of heavy-precipitation and high-temperature extremes

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 5(6), P. 560 - 564

Published: April 24, 2015

Language: Английский

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Global Increasing Trends in Annual Maximum Daily Precipitation

Journal of Climate, Journal Year: 2012, Volume and Issue: 26(11), P. 3904 - 3918

Published: Dec. 14, 2012

Abstract This study investigates the presence of trends in annual maximum daily precipitation time series obtained from a global dataset 8326 high-quality land-based observing stations with more than 30 years record over period 1900 to 2009. Two complementary statistical techniques were adopted evaluate possible nonstationary behavior these data. The first was Mann–Kendall nonparametric trend test, and it used existence monotonic trends. second generalized extreme value analysis, determine strength association between extremes globally averaged near-surface temperature. outcomes are that statistically significant increasing can be detected at scale, close two-thirds showing increases. Furthermore, there is temperature, median intensity changing proportion changes mean temperature rate 5.9% 7.7% K−1, depending on method analysis. ratio robust irrespective length or considered not strongly biased by uneven coverage Finally, distinct meridional variation, greatest sensitivity occurring tropics higher latitudes minima around 13°S 11°N. uncertainty near equator because limited number sufficiently long records, remains an urgent need improve data collection this region better constrain future tropical precipitation.

Language: Английский

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Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 10(1)

Published: Aug. 13, 2020

Abstract The hydrological cycle is expected to intensify with global warming, which likely increases the intensity of extreme precipitation events and risk flooding. changes, however, often differ from theorized expectation in water‐holding capacity atmosphere warmer conditions, especially when water availability limited. Here, relationships changes flood intensities for end twenty-first century spatial seasonal are quantified. Results show an intensification over all climate regions as dry wet regions. Similarly, there increase availability. connection between becomes stronger become less extreme.

Language: Английский

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Climate change will affect global water availability through compounding changes in seasonal precipitation and evaporation

Nature Communications, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: June 23, 2020

Both seasonal and annual mean precipitation evaporation influence patterns of water availability impacting society ecosystems. Existing global climate studies rarely consider such from non-parametric statistical standpoint. Here, we employ a analysis framework to analyze hydroclimatic regimes by classifying land regions into nine using late 20th century means seasonality. These are used assess implications for due concomitant changes in CMIP5 model future projections. Out 9 regimes, 4 show increased variation, while 5 decreased variation coupled with increasing evaporation. Increases projected already highly variable gives rise pattern "seasonally becoming more variable". Regimes low seasonality precipitation, instead, experience wet season precipitation.

Language: Английский

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Understanding the regional pattern of projected future changes in extreme precipitation

Nature Climate Change, Journal Year: 2017, Volume and Issue: 7(6), P. 423 - 427

Published: May 15, 2017

Language: Английский

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Frequency of extreme precipitation increases extensively with event rareness under global warming

Scientific Reports, Journal Year: 2019, Volume and Issue: 9(1)

Published: Nov. 5, 2019

The intensity of the heaviest extreme precipitation events is known to increase with global warming. How often such occur in a warmer world however less well established, and combined effect changes frequency on total amount rain falling as much explored, spite potentially large societal impacts. Here, we employ observations climate model simulations document strong increases frequencies occurring decadal timescales. Based find that from these intense almost doubles per degree warming, mainly due frequency, while are relatively weak, accordance previous studies. This shift towards stronger seen models, strength - hence rareness event. results, project if historical trends continue, most observed today likely double occurrence for each further Changes this magnitude dramatically than more widely communicated mean precipitation.

Language: Английский

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Precipitation Extremes Under Climate Change

Current Climate Change Reports, Journal Year: 2015, Volume and Issue: 1(2), P. 49 - 59

Published: April 20, 2015

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control response. Observations simulations models show intensify in warming climate. However, sensitivity remains uncertain when convection important, it may be higher tropics than extratropics. Several contributions govern extremes. thermodynamic contribution robust well understood, but theoretical understanding microphysical dynamical still being developed. Orographic snowfall respond differently other require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include influence mesoscale convective organization, dependence duration considered, need better constrain tropical warming.

Language: Английский

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