Anthropogenic Drought: Definition, Challenges, and Opportunities

Reviews of Geophysics, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 59(2)

Published: Jan. 28, 2021

Abstract Traditional, mainstream definitions of drought describe it as deficit in water‐related variables or water‐dependent activities (e.g., precipitation, soil moisture, surface and groundwater storage, irrigation) due to natural variabilities that are out the control local decision‐makers. Here, we argue within coupled human‐water systems, must be defined understood a process opposed product help better frame complex interrelated dynamics both human‐induced changes define anthropogenic compound multidimensional multiscale phenomenon, governed by combination water variability, climate change, human decisions activities, altered micro‐climate conditions land management. This definition considers full spectrum dynamic feedbacks processes land‐atmosphere interactions energy balance) human‐nature systems drive development . magnifies supply demand gap can lead bankruptcy, which will become more rampant around globe coming decades continuously growing demands under compounding effects change global environmental degradation. challenge has de facto implications for short‐term long‐term resources planning management, governance, policymaking. Herein, after brief overview concept its examples, discuss existing research gaps opportunities understanding, modeling, management this phenomenon.

Language: Английский

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Multisector Dynamics: Advancing the Science of Complex Adaptive Human‐Earth Systems

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(3)

Published: Feb. 23, 2022

Abstract The field of MultiSector Dynamics (MSD) explores the dynamics and co‐evolutionary pathways human Earth systems with a focus on critical goods, services, amenities delivered to people through interdependent sectors. This commentary lays out core definitions concepts, identifies MSD science questions in context current state knowledge, describes ongoing activities expand capacities for open science, leverage revolutions data computing, grow diversify workforce. Central our vision is ambition advancing next generation complex adaptive human‐Earth better address interconnected risks, increase resilience, improve sustainability. will require convergent research integration ideas methods from multiple disciplines. Understanding tradeoffs, synergies, complexities that exist coupled particularly important energy transitions increased future shocks.

Language: Английский

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On the evaluation of climate change impact models

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 13(3)

Published: March 3, 2022

Abstract In‐depth understanding of the potential implications climate change is required to guide decision‐ and policy‐makers when developing adaptation strategies designing infrastructure suitable for future conditions. Impact models that translate conditions into variables interest are needed create causal connection between a changing its impact different sectors. Recent surveys suggest primary strategy validating such (and hence justifying their use) heavily relies on assessing accuracy model simulations by comparing them against historical observations. We argue comparison necessary valuable, but not sufficient achieve comprehensive evaluation models. believe complementary, largely observation‐independent, step ensure more transparency behavior greater robustness scenario‐based analyses. This should address following four questions: (1) Do modeled dominant process controls match our system perception? (2) Is my model's sensitivity forcing as expected? (3) decision levers show adequate influence? (4) Can we attribute uncertainty sources throughout projection horizon? global analysis, with ability investigate response joint variations multiple inputs in structured way, offers coherent approach all questions comprehensively. Such additional would strengthen stakeholder confidence projections and, therefore, derived help article categorized under: Climate Models Modeling > Knowledge Generation Assessing Impacts Change Evaluating Future

Language: Английский

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Knowledge co-production for decision-making in human-natural systems under uncertainty

Global Environmental Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 82, P. 102727 - 102727

Published: July 4, 2023

Decision-making under uncertainty is important for managing human-natural systems in a changing world. A major source of linked to the multi-actor settings decisions with poorly understood values, complex relationships, and conflicting management approaches. Despite general agreement across disciplines on co-producing knowledge viable inclusive outcomes context, there still limited conceptual clarity no systematic understanding what co-production means decision-making how it can be approached. Here, we use content analysis clustering systematically analyse 50 cases multiple time spatial scales 26 countries 9 different sectors last decade serve two aims. The first synthesise key recurring strategies that underpin high quality decision many diverse features. second identify deficits opportunities leverage existing towards flourishing support decision-making. We find four emerge centred around: promoting innovation robust equitable decisions; broadening span interacting systems; fostering social learning participation; improving pathways impact. Additionally, five areas should addressed improve are identified relation to: participation diversity; collaborative action; power relationships; governance inclusivity; transformative change. Characterising emergent their improvement help guide future works more pluralistic integrated science practice.

Language: Английский

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Uncertainty Analysis in Multi‐Sector Systems: Considerations for Risk Analysis, Projection, and Planning for Complex Systems

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2022

Abstract Simulation models of multi‐sector systems are increasingly used to understand societal resilience climate and economic shocks change. However, also subject numerous uncertainties that prevent the direct application simulation for prediction planning, particularly when extrapolating past behavior a nonstationary future. Recent studies have developed combination methods characterize, attribute, quantify these both single‐ systems. Here, we review challenges complications idealized goal fully quantifying all in model their interactions with policy design as they emerge at different stages analysis: (a) inference calibration; (b) projecting future outcomes; (c) scenario discovery identification risk regimes. We identify potential research opportunities help navigate tradeoffs inherent uncertainty analyses complex During this discussion, provide classification types discuss coupling frameworks support interdisciplinary collaboration on dynamics (MSD) research. Finally, conclude recommendations best practices ensure MSD can be properly contextualized respect underlying uncertainties.

Language: Английский

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A review of systems modelling for local sustainability

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 16(11), P. 113004 - 113004

Published: Oct. 13, 2021

Abstract The 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) represent a holistic and ambitious agenda for transforming the world towards societal well-being, economic prosperity, environmental protection. Achieving SDGs is, however, challenged by performance of interconnected sectors complexity their interactions which drive non-linear system responses, tipping points, spillover effects. Systems modelling, as an integrated way thinking about modelling multisectoral dynamics, can help explain how feedback within among different lead to broader transformation progress SDGs. Here, we review prominent systems approach, inform contribute sustainability research implementation, framed We systematically analyse 357 dynamics studies undertaken at local scale where most important SDG impacts initiators are often located, published between 2015 (i.e. SDGs’ inception) 2020. illuminate strengths limitations in four key areas: diversity scope; interdisciplinarity approaches; role stakeholder participation; analysis interactions. Our highlights opportunities better consideration aspects sustainable development (e.g. poverty, inequality) efforts; integrating with new interdisciplinary methods leverage capabilities; improving genuine engagement credibility on ground; more in-depth synergies trade-offs) feedback-rich structure models.

Language: Английский

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Drivers of Future Physical Water Scarcity and Its Economic Impacts in Latin America and the Caribbean

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 10(8)

Published: Aug. 1, 2022

Abstract Future water scarcity is a global concern with impacts across the energy, water, and land (EWL) sectors. Countries in Latin America Caribbean (LAC) are significant producers of agricultural goods, so disruptions resulting from LAC have importance. Understanding where could occur what exacerbate it critical for strategic resource management planning, both regionally globally. Assessing future challenging given complex interactions among EWL sectors multiple uncertainties acting spatial scales. To illuminate these dynamics, we use scenario discovery on large ensemble representing diverse futures simulated using an integrated human‐environmental systems model. We quantify its economic several physical metrics. find that levels reservoir storage expansion be driver scarcity, highlighting importance infrastructure development maintaining availability. Changes crop profit driven by supply demand, emphasizing complexity multisector dynamics. While most poised to abundant resources available development, basins Mexico along Pacific coast South experience high exposure severe outcomes uncertainty at least one metric. drivers vary spatially metrics, region's heterogeneity considering metrics assess scarcity.

Language: Английский

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Investigating uncertainties in human adaptation and their impacts on water scarcity in the Colorado river Basin, United States

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 612, P. 128015 - 128015

Published: June 9, 2022

Language: Английский

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Future Changes in Floods, Droughts, and Their Extents in the Alps: A Sensitivity Analysis With a Non‐Stationary Stochastic Streamflow Generator

Earth s Future, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 12(4)

Published: April 1, 2024

Abstract Spatially compounding droughts and floods challenge water management may become more severe in a warming climate. However, the influence of climate change on widespread hydrologic extremes remains largely unknown because they are neither well represented observations nor models. Here, we present non‐stationary stochastic streamflow generator that captures dependencies between different catchments represents seasonal covariations with temperature. We run this model for 925 nearly natural Alps to generate daily time series reference period three levels 1, 2, 3°C. Then, identify drought flood events, determine their spatial extents, assess changes all these characteristics. This sensitivity analysis suggests characteristics extent substantially weaker than those extent. While show timing toward earlier year, simulated magnitude, volume, duration, negligible. In contrast, not just but also intensity, deficit, Specifically, projected intensify, last longer, slightly increase extent, magnitude increasing level. These highlight need develop adaptation strategies particular droughts. Such should go beyond local consider extreme events world.

Language: Английский

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Advancing Diagnostic Model Evaluation to Better Understand Water Shortage Mechanisms in Institutionally Complex River Basins

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2020, Volume and Issue: 56(10)

Published: Oct. 1, 2020

Abstract Water resources systems models enable valuable inferences on consequential system stressors by representing both the geophysical processes determining movement of water and human elements distributing it to its various competing uses. This study contributes a diagnostic evaluation framework that pairs exploratory modeling with global sensitivity analysis enhance our ability make scarcity vulnerabilities in institutionally complex river basins. Diagnostic basins many stakeholders poses significant challenges. First, needs exploit large diverse suite simulations capture important human‐natural interactions as well aware behavioral mechanisms. Second, have performance metrics are draw decision‐relevant model outputs adequately multisector concerns emerge from basin stakeholders. We demonstrate proposed evaluating how potential between changing hydrologic conditions demands influence frequencies durations shortages varying magnitudes experienced hundreds users subbasin Colorado River. show dominant factors shaping these effects vary across and, for an individual user, percentiles shortage magnitude. These differences hold even sharing diversion locations, demand levels or right seniority. Our findings underline importance detailed institutional representation such basins, institutions strongly shape stakeholder propagate through network users.

Language: Английский

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