Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 626, P. 130318 - 130318
Published: Oct. 17, 2023
Language: Английский
Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 619, P. 129305 - 129305
Published: Feb. 26, 2023
Language: Английский
Citations
63
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)
Published: Jan. 24, 2025
Language: Английский
Citations
3
Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2021, Volume and Issue: 603, P. 126907 - 126907
Published: Sept. 6, 2021
Language: Английский
Citations
97
Hydrology and earth system sciences, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 26(2), P. 305 - 329
Published: Jan. 24, 2022
Abstract. Snowmelt is a major fresh water resource, and quantifying snowmelt its variability under climate change necessary for the planning management of resources. Spatiotemporal changes in snow properties China have drawn wide attention recent decades; however, country-wide assessments are lacking. Using precipitation temperature data with high spatial resolution (0.5′; approximately 1 km), this study calculated monthly 1951–2017 period, using simple index model, model outputs were validated snowfall, depth, cover extent equivalent. Precipitation scenarios developed from five CMIP5 models used to predict future three different representative concentration pathway (RCP) (RCP2.6, RCP4.5 RCP8.5). The results show that mean annual 1951 2017 2.41×1011 m3 yr−1. values Northern Xinjiang, Northeast Tibetan Plateau – China's main stable regions 0.18×1011, 0.42×1011 1.15×1011 yr−1, respectively. From 2017, increased significantly decreased northern, central southeastern China. In whole China, there was decreasing trend snowmelt, but not statistically significant. runoff ratios generally more than 10 % almost all third-level basins West 5 North less 2 South most Under RCP2.6, RCP8.5, projected near (2011–2040; mid-future –2041–2070; far 2071–2099) may decrease by 10.4 (15.8 %; 13.9 %), 12.0 (17.9 21.1 %) 11.7 (24.8 36.5 compared reference period (1981–2010), Most periods lower those period. Low can tolerate warming, these mainly influenced precipitation; warm sensitive increases. lead regional differences impact on supply.
Language: Английский
Citations
55
Atmospheric Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 309, P. 107553 - 107553
Published: June 27, 2024
Language: Английский
Citations
10
Advances in Climate Change Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(1), P. 62 - 74
Published: Jan. 23, 2024
A warming–wetting climate trend has led to increased runoff in most watersheds the Tian Shan Mountains over past few decades. However, it remains unclear how components, that is, rainfall (Rrain), snowmelt (Rsnow), and glacier meltwater (Rglacier), responded historical change they will evolve under future scenarios. Here, we used a modified Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) model detrending method quantify impact of precipitation temperature changes on components largest river (Manas River) northern slope from 1982 2015. multivariate calibration strategy, including snow cover, area, was implemented constrain parameters associated with components. The downscaled outputs 12 general circulation models (GCMs) Sixth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) were also force HBV project response its (2016–2100) three common socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP585). results indicate Rrain dominates mean annual proportion 42%, followed by Rsnow (37%) Rglacier (21%). In terms inter-annual variation, show increasing trends (0.93 (p < 0.05) 0.31 > mm per year), while exhibits an insignificant decreasing (−0.12 leading total (1.12 year, p 0.05). attribution analysis indicates contribute 8.16 10.37 mm, respectively, increase at scale. Climate wetting (increased precipitation) increases (5.03 mm) (3.19 but limited effect (−0.06 mm), warming (10.69 (5.79 decreases (−6.12 mm). negative shrinkage outweighed positive Rglacier, resulting tipping point (peak water) for having passed. Runoff projections could be offset due projections, reducing risk shortages available water resources. management authorities still need develop adequate adaptation strategies cope continuing decline future, considering large fluctuations high uncertainty projection.
Language: Английский
Citations
9
Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 606, P. 127390 - 127390
Published: Jan. 3, 2022
Language: Английский
Citations
38
Remote Sensing, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 14(2), P. 262 - 262
Published: Jan. 7, 2022
Snow cover is an important water source and even Essential Climate Variable (ECV) as defined by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). Assessing snow phenology its driving factors in Northeast China will help with comprehensively understanding role of regional cycle climate change. This study presents spatiotemporal variations relative importance potential drivers, including climate, geography, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), based on MODIS products across from 2001 to 2018. The results indicated that days (SCD), onset dates (SCOD) end (SCED) all showed obvious latitudinal distribution characteristics. As latitude gradually increases, SCD becomes longer, SCOD advances SCED delays. Overall, there a growing tendency delayed trend time. were driven mean temperature, followed latitude, while precipitation, aspect slope had little effect SCD, SCED. With decreasing upward trends. temperature has negatively correlation positively SCOD. increasing change rate whole 10.20 d/degree, −3.82 d/degree 5.41 respectively, forested areas was lower than nonforested areas. At same for different underlying surfaces varied greatly. correlations between NDVI mainly positive, but weak accounted large proportion.
Language: Английский
Citations
34
Geoscience Frontiers, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(5), P. 101819 - 101819
Published: March 8, 2024
The Naoli River Basin (NRB), a pivotal agricultural production area in China, is poised to undergo substantial impacts on water resources due projected climate and land use/cover (LULC) changes. Despite its significance the context of China's expanding farmland construction NRB, there exists limited research potential repercussions future shifts runoff, soil content (SWC), evapotranspiration (ET) crop productivity availability (both terms quantity timing). This study employs LULC maps an ensemble ten CMIP6 Global Climate Models (GCMs) across three scenarios drive well-calibrated distributed hydrological model, ESSI-3. objective present aimed projecting consequences under use/land cover changes near-term (2026–2050), middle-term (2051–2075), far-term (2076–2100) comparison baseline period 1990–2014. Results consistently indicate increase trend annual average ET, SWC NRB all periods SSP scenarios. emerge as primary driver influencing regional processes near future. Notably, high-emission scenarios, monthly runoff are significantly March but decrease April during middle far compared baseline. shift attributed anticipated warming winter spring, leading transition peak snowmelt from March. Concurrently, expansion cropland intensifies demand, potentially exacerbating stress early stages growth April. findings underscore importance addressing change use planning cycling processes. Early mitigate shortages initial stage crucial for ensuring food security managing water-related challenges neighboring mid-high latitude regions.
Language: Английский
Citations
7
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Year: 2022, Volume and Issue: 49(13)
Published: June 24, 2022
Abstract The compound of late winter snow droughts and early spring heatwaves (compound drought heatwave (CSDHW)) could dramatically affect ecosystems water availability, but has not been systematically investigated. Here we present a comprehensive assessment CSDHW events possible driving mechanisms. We find that 7% the snow‐covered area experiences significant ( p < 0.05) events, an average 35% are followed by during 1981–2020. spatial extent is asymmetrically enlarging, with increase in Eurasia relatively high fluctuation North America. Specifically, warm‐type (i.e., normal or above‐average precipitation heatwave) occurs more frequently, coverage increasing faster than dry‐type below‐average heatwave). In comparison, dry likely to be due intensified soil atmospheric aridity.
Language: Английский
Citations
23