Challenges in the attribution of river flood events DOI Creative Commons
Paolo Scussolini, Linh N. Luu, Sjoukje Philip

et al.

Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 15(3)

Published: Dec. 26, 2023

Abstract Advances in the field of extreme event attribution allow to estimate how anthropogenic global warming affects odds individual climate disasters, such as river floods. Extreme typically uses precipitation proxy for flooding. However, hydrological processes and antecedent conditions make relation between floods highly nonlinear. In addition, hydrology acknowledges that changes can be strongly driven by land‐cover other human interventions system, irrigation construction dams. These drivers either amplify, dampen or outweigh effect change on local flood occurrence. Neglecting these lead incorrect attribution. Including flooding explicitly, is, using data models hydrodynamics represent relevant processes, will more robust attribution, account role beyond change. Existing attempts are incomplete. We argue existing probabilistic framework extended explicitly include near‐natural cases, where occurrence was unlikely influenced interventions. many cases this assumption is not valid, a multi‐driver conditional needs established. Explicit have grapple with uncertainties from lack observations compounding involved. Further, it requires collaboration climatologists hydrologists, promises better address risk management. This article categorized under: Paleoclimates Current Trends > Modern Climate Change Detection Attribution Assessing Impacts Observed

Language: Английский

Streamflow seasonality in a snow-dwindling world DOI
Juntai Han, Ziwei Liu, Ross Woods

et al.

Nature, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 629(8014), P. 1075 - 1081

Published: May 29, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

37
Climate Change and Hydrological Extremes DOI
Jinghua Xiong, Yuting Yang

Current Climate Change Reports, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 11(1)

Published: Oct. 2, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

23
Multifaceted changes in water availability with a warmer climate DOI Creative Commons
Baohua Gu, Sha Zhou, Bofu Yu

et al.

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 8(1)

Published: Jan. 24, 2025

Language: Английский

Citations

3
Changes in Snow Drought and the Impacts on Streamflow Across Northern Catchments DOI Creative Commons
Juntai Han, Yuting Yang, Yuhan Guo

et al.

Water Resources Research, Journal Year: 2025, Volume and Issue: 61(1)

Published: Jan. 1, 2025

Abstract Snow drought, characterized by an anomalous reduction in snowpack, exerts profound hydrological and socioeconomic impacts cold regions. Despite its significance, the influence of diverse snow drought types, including warm, dry, warm‐and‐dry variants, on streamflow remains inadequately understood. Here we present first hemispheric‐scale, observation‐based assessment patterns seasonal annual ( Q ) across 3049 northern catchments over 1950–2020. Our findings reveal that with a lower mean snowfall fraction () exhibit heightened prevalence severity warm droughts, whereas high‐ experience more prevalent but less severe dry drought. This disparity arises from distinct sensitivities snowpack to cold‐season precipitation temperature. In addition, droughts induce during both seasons, culminating significant decrease . Conversely, increases decreases , attributable trade‐off between increased c decreased warm‐season w ). With ongoing climate warming, continued is anticipated, which expected further increase frequency warm‐dry droughts. These circumstances, particularly impactful under low conditions, are poised formidable challenges for water resources management regions globally.

Language: Английский

Citations

2
Groundwater shapes North American river floods DOI Creative Commons
Wouter Berghuijs, Louise Slater

Environmental Research Letters, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 18(3), P. 034043 - 034043

Published: Feb. 24, 2023

Abstract The importance of soil moisture in triggering river floods is increasingly recognized. However, represents only a fraction the water stored unsaturated zone. In contrast, groundwater from deeper, saturated zone, may contribute significant proportion flow, but its effects on flooding are poorly understood. Here we analyze hydroclimatic records thousands North American watersheds spanning 1981–2018 to show that baseflow (i.e. groundwater-sustained flows ) affects magnitude annual at time scales days decades. Annual almost always arise through co-occurrence high precipitation (rainfall + snowmelt) and baseflow. Flood magnitudes often more strongly related variations antecedent than short-term (⩽3-day) extreme precipitation. addition, multi-decadal trends flood decadal tend better align with storage changing extremes moisture. This reveals shaping decouples spatial patterns those shifting

Language: Английский

Citations

27
The impact of ecological restoration on ecosystem services change modulated by drought and rising CO2 DOI Creative Commons
Binbin Huang, Fei Lu, Xiaoke Wang

et al.

Global Change Biology, Journal Year: 2023, Volume and Issue: 29(18), P. 5304 - 5320

Published: June 27, 2023

Ecological restoration projects (ERPs) are an indispensable component of natural climate solutions and have proven to be very important for reversing environmental degradation in vulnerable regions enhancing ecosystem services. However, the level enhancement would inevitably influenced by global drought rising CO2 , which remain less investigated. In this study, we took Beijing-Tianjin sand source region (which has experienced long-term ERPs), China, as example combined process-based Biome-BGCMuSo model set multiple scenarios address issue. We found ERP-induced carbon sequestration (CS), water retention (WR), soil (SR), sandstorm prevention (SP) increased 22.21%, 2.87%, 2.35%, 28.77%, respectively. Moreover, services promotion from afforestation was greater than that grassland planting. Approximately 91.41%, 98.13%, 64.51% CS, SR, SP were contributed afforestation. also caused WR decline. Although amplified ERPs, it almost totally offset drought. The contribution ERPs WR, reduced 5.74%, 32.62%, 11.74%, 14.86%, respectively, under . Our results confirmed importance strengthening provision. Furthermore, provide a quantitative way understand influence rate on service dynamics. addition, considerable negative change impact implied strategies should optimized improve resilience better combat impacts.

Language: Английский

Citations

25
Compounding effects in flood drivers challenge estimates of extreme river floods DOI Creative Commons
Shijie Jiang, Larisa Tarasova, Guo Yu

et al.

Science Advances, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 10(13)

Published: March 27, 2024

Estimating river flood risks under climate change is challenging, largely due to the interacting and combined influences of various flood-generating drivers. However, a more detailed quantitative analysis such compounding effects implications their interplay remains underexplored on large scale. Here, we use explainable machine learning disentangle between drivers quantify importance for different magnitudes across thousands catchments worldwide. Our findings demonstrate ubiquity in many floods. Their often increases with magnitude, but strength this increase varies basis catchment conditions. Traditional might underestimate extreme hazards where contribution strongly magnitude. Overall, our study highlights need carefully incorporate risk assessment improve estimates

Language: Английский

Citations

15
Disaster effects of climate change in High Mountain Asia: State of art and scientific challenges DOI Creative Commons
Hao Wang, Binbin Wang, Peng Cui

et al.

Advances in Climate Change Research, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 15(3), P. 367 - 389

Published: June 1, 2024

High-Mountain Asia (HMA) shows a remarkable warming tendency and divergent trend of regional precipitation with enhanced meteorological extremes. The rapid thawing the HMA cryosphere may alter magnitude frequency nature hazards. This study reviews impact various types hazards in region, including their phenomena, mechanisms impacts. It reveals that: 1) occurrences extreme rainfall, heavy snowfall, drifting snow are escalating; accelerated ice melting have advanced onset increased snowmelt floods; 2) elevating trigger factors, such as glacier debuttressing shift thermal hydrological regime bedrock/snow/ice interface or subsurface, mass flow bedrock landslide, avalanche, ice-rock avalanches detachment, debris will become more severe; 3) active-layer detachment retrogressive thaw slumps slope failures, settlement thermokarst lake damage many important engineering structures infrastructure permafrost region; 4) multi-hazards cascading hazard HMA, glacial outburst flood (GLOF) avalanche-induced greatly enlarge destructive power primary by amplifying its volume, mobility, force; 5) instability sediment supply highland areas could impose remote catastrophic impacts upon lowland regions, threat hydropower security future water shortage. In future, ongoing profoundly weaken multiple-phase material bedrock, ice, water, soil, enhance activities Compounding high prevail HMA. As runoff overpasses peak low droughts downstream glacierized mountain regions became frequent severe. Addressing escalating region requires tackling scientific challenges, understanding multiscale evolution formation mechanism hazard-prone systems, coupling thermo‒hydro‒mechanical processes multi-phase flows, predicting catastrophes arising from weather climate events, comprehending how propagate to lowlands due change.

Language: Английский

Citations

15
Spatiotemporal variations of inter- and intra-annual extreme streamflow in the Yangtze River Basin DOI
An‐Chi Huang, Guangyao Gao, Liqiang Yao

et al.

Journal of Hydrology, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 629, P. 130634 - 130634

Published: Jan. 12, 2024

Language: Английский

Citations

11
Assessing streamflow and sediment responses to future climate change over the Upper Mekong River Basin: A comparison between CMIP5 and CMIP6 models DOI Creative Commons
Di Ma, Zhixu Bai, Yue‐Ping Xu

et al.

Journal of Hydrology Regional Studies, Journal Year: 2024, Volume and Issue: 52, P. 101685 - 101685

Published: Feb. 1, 2024

The Upper Mekong River Basin (UMRB), Southwest China. With climate change unfolding and knowledge evolving over time, it is imperative to investigate whether the latest CMIP6 models offer enhanced utility in impact studies compared their predecessors. This study strengthens comparison between CMIP5 assessing hydrological responses future change. was achieved utilizing Soil Water Assessment Tool, driven by downscaled CMIP5/CMIP6 model outputs under RCP8.5/SSP5–8.5. Both streamflow sediment responses, encompassing spatial temporal changes, relationships loads, were carefully evaluated CMIP6. indicates a stronger warming 2071–2100 UMRB CMIP5. Mean annual precipitation/streamflow projected increase 22.7%/26.3% using 28.4%/34.4% load however, show discrepancy (−3.7%) (+13.8%). exhibits larger inter-model variability both projections. Regarding distributions of mean water yields, considerable agreement demonstrated CMIP6, despite showing projections most subbasins. Additionally, ensembles exhibit approximate indicating comparable decline watershed generation transport capacity Overall, suggests more severe impacts on loads than CMIP5, highlighting need update adaptation mitigation policies based insights derived from

Language: Английский

Citations

10